A regime that will probably last until February!  And I am not joking

I would rather it was crazy mild, dry in the south and super Bartlett than wet and windy. 

Wasn't the tumultuous winter of 2014 the result of HLB forcing low pressure to run directly across the British Isles? Better hope not but the models seem to be touching on that as soon as this time next week onwards. 

Although that awful winter of 2014 also involved strong polar vortex stuck steadfastly over the Arctic with nodes breaking off towards the US and we here at the UK kept getting the fall out.

Could be the famed annual autumn kerfuffle

The brief Arctic outbreak shown in the model output over the next couple of days looks likely to bring the first wintry showers to lower elevations in northernmost parts.  The medium to longer term (5 to 15 days not 3 months!) is a more mixed picture with a lot variability. I doubt any clear influence from this week’s predicted SSW will be evident in the charts just yet. 

GFS Op 00z - that LP from the Atlantic takes over, 950mb Western Isles Tue 17th, a lot of cold air in its circulation.  It moves on to Scandinavia Thu 19th leaving a trough hanging back over Britain. The line of this trough i picked up by the next LP, 990mb Ireland Mon 23rd, which then moves across England to join the complex LP over Scandinavia with N-lies for Britain  by Fri 20th*

ECM - generally like GFS but a small LP from the Atlantic precedes the main event on Tue17th, and there is less of a trough hanging back later (update may follow when download to T+360 available)

AIFS - London, rain today, cooler and dry through the weekend  (7C) with frosty nights, and the same next weekend; during the week milder (10 - 11C) with rain Mon 16th, Tue 17th and Thu 18th and the same again during the following week with  rain Mon 23rd and Wed 25th. Edinburgh, more consistent with maxima 5-7C, tending to be a little cooler at weekends; rain Mon 15th, Wed 17th and Sun 22nd.

GEFS - rain today only in the S, then mean and ens agree on a dry cool weekend (4C below norm), rain starts late Sun 15th and continues in most runs to Thu 26th, esp heavy at first plus a few runs have high totals (30+ mm) around Mon 23rd. Mean and ens close to  norm (or a little above Mon 16th) with the rain. 

Jet - streak over S Britain Mon 16th - Thu 19th, otherwise fragmented and not doing a lot.

* LP over Scandinavia again, like the last few years? What happened to the Scandi highs of yesteryear which used to pump out remarkable easterlies?

A discussion for the breakout thread? Also know as YKW.

I think any blocking showing up is just a model mirage.  It will get blasted away as all the background indicators suggest

I think we are in a much better place than most years.  But I'm sure our old friend Pete Tong will make an appearance at some point.

Are we going to have to put up with your persistent negativity for another winter, mate? 😉🤣

As for the GFS6z, it reinforces the HLB theme (although it does 'blast away' the block in the further realms of FI)

I'm with you on this one. HLB, though most welcome when it does occur, is sufficiently uncommon that it's best treated on a believe-it-when-you-see-it basis, and that only when firmly established.

Seeing the ensembles there no such very mild temps this year November, 16-17C are the typical max highest every year but not the case this year. It will be a bit milder after the cold sunny weather but nothing high as 16-17C temps.

Definitely some signals that the start of winter is going to look different to what we are used to.

Gloomin is being positive this year!

The first signs that the SSW - though a marginal one - might be having an effect down the line?

If the zonal winds reverse at 10hPa as modelled then it is actually classed as a major SSW.

Yes, I should have said a marginal major SSW.

I see that the ECMWF 12Z op run wants to generate a Scandi High out in FI.

Find them rather a waste this time of year; unless they're perfectly aligned to funnel extremely cold air towards us, they're just not conducive to proper early winter cold. A Greenland High is better for early season cold.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Almost similar to the one I got last January and with now low solar input should help too.  At least interesting than HP with cloud and fog infestation.  Can’t wait to see the sun coming up soon.  Tuesday is 5 days away so let see if this persists on further runs. 

GFS Op 00z - the second LP above catches up with the first and forms an arc of LP S Greenland-Britain-S Norway, 975mb Tue 17th-Wed 18th 975mb Scottish border (cold air so likely snow on hills), all clearing by the weekend with brief ridge of HP before next LP runs into SW Ireland 970mb Tue 24th, then changes direction and moves N-wards over the Irish Sea, filling , but pressure remaining low over Britain to Sat 24th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the lowest pressure in the 'arc' is to the east near Norway. The last chart available at this time (Sun 22nd) has the following  LP still developing near Greenland.

AIFS - London, maxima 8C with frosty nights for the weekend then milder (10C) to Thu 19th with rain (not a lot) Sun 15th, Tue 17th and Thu 19th (Daily Mirror readers in the S will be disappointed when the apocalypse doesn't arrive); back to dry , 6-7 C with frosty nights to Thu 26th. Edinburgh, 6-8C for the rest of this week and dry; maxima then settle at 4-5C, frost likely when it doesn't rain (Sun 15th and Wed 18th)

GEFS - a cool weekend then mean temp with quite a narrow spread of ens members close to norm Sat 28th, rain (much more likely than suggested by AIFS) at any time after Sun 15th, heavy at first (perhaps drier in the north around Sat 21st). Snow row values (max possible = 33) in single figures for N & W Scotland , in low teens for Inverness, occasionally 1-3 elsewhere.

The cold rain/snow previously forecast as a major event for Tuesday is downplayed today, still noticeable on GFS/GEFS but nothing special on ECM/AIFS; MetO rainfall chart continues to show heavy rain in the SW/S coast

Small Lows are steered across the south from the W. Could be some localised snowfall events 🤔 It's a bit early but you never know.....