The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Charmhills
07 November 2026 09:49:50

Nothing overly exciting yet on the output.  But GFS 0z does have a few frosts this morning at least.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Quite seasonal-looking, though, and may turn increasingly wet next week in the south before generally turning more unsettled widely thereafter.

Fairly chilly too.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

ozoneaurora
07 November 2026 09:59:38
Some quite beefy showers with thunder in the English Channel early this morning; must be due to relatively very warm waters there. 

Otherwise, staying quiet and relatively settled over inland UK for immediate future.

As said with above post, quite seasonal conditions.

Ally Pally Snowman
07 November 2026 10:19:10
Plenty of frosts on the ECM 0z as well this morning 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2026 10:24:51
Lots of shower activity in the Channel  over the weekend but reluctant to come ashore (MetO Rainfall chart)
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Jiries
07 November 2026 10:29:25

Plenty of frosts on the ECM 0z as well this morning 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&lid=OP#mapref

 Good looking chart like that no HP and lot of sunshine from this, maybe some snow showers if cold enough in Scotland.  Also same northerly later next week help to keep skies clear too.  

Ally Pally Snowman
07 November 2026 10:37:47

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&lid=OP#mapref

 Good looking chart like that no HP and lot of sunshine from this, maybe some snow showers if cold enough in Scotland.  Also same northerly later next week help to keep skies clear too.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yes that northerly drags down some cold air that hangs around for the rest of the run. 

Just some hints as well of HLB starting to turn up. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
07 November 2026 11:02:28

Yes that northerly drags down some cold air that hangs around for the rest of the run. 

Just some hints as well of HLB starting to turn up. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That the reason as I really want any HP to stay away from here.  It did no good lately, bring lot of clouds, horrible fog like today I really hate so much and rain did not rain here but rain in other places.    Was worried when previous runs was showing HP to persist to mid November once again glad to drop this most dangerous set up.   We not alone as in Europe many want LP to feed snow to the Alps on time and their lowlands than HP over it.  I hope to see at least first -5C 850s to arrive here sooner than later.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 November 2026 07:45:17
FAX - High pressure collapsing with a few embedded fronts near the east coast, but persisting enough over Scotland to delay the arrival of fronts over England until Tue 10th, part of the circulation of LP 987mb W of Biscay. This makes little further progress but N-lies are gathering as HP develops west of Iceland.

GFS Op 00z - That HP moves SE to cover Britain so only the east coast gets the N-lies Thu 12th. Then deep LP steams in from mid-Atlantic 960mb S Ireland Tue 17th preceded by S-ly gales, centre of LP crossing S England. Brief ridge of HP to follow, then another LP moving from the SW towards Cornwall 990mb Tue 24th

ECM - agrees well with GFS until Wed 18th when the LP moves NE-wards past the Western Isles,  light W-lies for England. EDIT now down loaded to t+360;  this LP having moved past Faeroes, swings around past Greenland and receives cold reinforcements so by Mon 23rd there is, like GFS, an LP approaching from the Atlantic but deeper 965mb, colder and heading for N Ireland

AIFS - London, maxima 7-9C this week, rain Wed 11th, cooler with frosty nights for the weekend of 14th. Then fairly mild 10-12C, cooling again Sat 21st, rain Tue 17th and Sat 21st. Edinburgh, cooling to 5C Fri 13th, then up and down over quite a broad range maxima 7-10C to Sat 21st, Dry this week, rain Tue 17th & Sat 21st.

GEFS - In the south, milder Wed 11th, cooler Fri 13th, then mean temp near norm with only a small spread of ens members, rain any day from Wed 11th, most persistent around Tue 17th - Thu 19th, heavier in the SW and in Wales. In the north, the mildness around the 11th is suppressed, and no rain until 16th, again heaviest in west.

Still looking for shift in Polar Vortex to show up in the routine charts; meanwhile the south gets some more rain, just enough to tide it over.


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
08 November 2026 12:53:57
Some interesting HLB turning up in the late November charts now. Hopefully won't be too long before a properly cold run turns up. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
08 November 2026 18:21:05
12Z GFS looks quite snowy for the Scottish mountains in the second half. ECM not quite as much but still fairly cold at times.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
08 November 2026 18:34:19

12Z GFS looks quite snowy for the Scottish mountains in the second half. ECM not quite as much but still fairly cold at times.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes it seems quite a seasonal outlook. I wonder what impact the upcoming SSW will have further down the line. When combined with (or connected to?) the strong El Niño it is somewhat uncharted territory.


Jiries
08 November 2026 18:43:27

12Z GFS looks quite snowy for the Scottish mountains in the second half. ECM not quite as much but still fairly cold at times.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

At least something more interesting than fog and overcast HP days.  I think November looking below average if this come off and against the LRF which was going for very mild stormy November.

Ally Pally Snowman
08 November 2026 18:53:32
The ECM 12z also looks interesting later on. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2026 07:45:58
FAX - flabby depression west of Biscay 980mb pushes fronts into S England by Wed 11th while another LP 997mb Norway brings N-lies to graze the east coast. Both LPs are banished as HP moves down from Iceland centred N England 1021mb Fri 13th. 

GFS Op 00z - after the above and a fine weekend to follow, LP moves up to the Bristol Channel from the SW 975mb Tue 17th, moving NE-wards and filling, to be replaced by another LP 975mb Ireland Sat 21st, also moving on and filling; then another 975mb Western Isles Tue 24th (and another waiting in mid-Atlantic 970mb). Jet stream quite strong across mid-Atlantic to C Britain during thus time so supporting this string of LPs, but the jet fades out further east so the LPs are no longer driven, and fill.

ECM - the fine weather doesn't last through the weekend as pressure drops over the Atlantic, bringing first SW-lies then NW-lies. The LP Tue 17th runs further north, approaching Scotland before dropping south through Ireland Thu 19th (to t+240; t+360 will download later) ...LATER ... and then returning to Scotland. The next LP is 955mb S of Greenland Sun 22nd; it doesn't get a lot closer but deep enough to produce strong SW-lie, then W-lies for Britain, so probably a front or two passing through.

AIFS - London, maxima 8-10C to Sun 15th with frosty nights bat the weekend; then maxima 10-12C (a little warmer at first) to Mon 23rd; rain 11th, 16th/17th (heavy), 19th and 23rd. Edinburgh, baseline maxima 5-6C but with milder spells Mon 16th (to 15C, i.e. much milder) and Thu 19th (to 10C). The mild and wet spells correlate with the LP arriving off the Atlantic.

GEFS - mild or at least near norm (with rain in S) Wed 11th, then cooler and dry, then  wet from Mon 16th esp in SW,  persisting to 25th, mean and ens near norm , possibly milder at first. 

Enough rain to satisfy the water authorities next week (i.e .week  beginning 15th)? Maybe not yet but it's a good start


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Crepuscular Ray
09 November 2026 11:32:58
06Z GFS is interesting. Towards the end of November, energy is going under the northern blocking. A cold E/NE flow for Scotland.......reminds me of Dec 2010, the coldest and snowiest month I have experienced since 1962/63!......I know I know it's just one run 😁
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Ally Pally Snowman
09 November 2026 12:21:47

06Z GFS is interesting. Towards the end of November, energy is going under the northern blocking. A cold E/NE flow for Scotland.......reminds me of Dec 2010, the coldest and snowiest month I have experienced since 1962/63!......I know I know it's just one run 😁

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

HLB is often turning up now especially on the GFS.  It definitely could be onto something.  The SSW gives us a chance 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
09 November 2026 12:55:50

HLB is often turning up now especially on the GFS.  It definitely could be onto something.  The SSW gives us a chance 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Counting down to the time to see the back of this horrible fog and overcast dirty HP out, the 06z from what I see there no more HP over top of the UK for rest of November hopefully as you said HLB is more interesting than winter killer HP on top.  More variety on the cold side with sunshine, some frosts and perhaps snow chances if cold enough.  Who need a fog that that no use or benefit to us?  

Brian Gaze
09 November 2026 13:32:13
Looks fairly mild much of the continent in the 10 to 15 day period. The northwest is the exception for once.

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

White Meadows
09 November 2026 15:06:44
Met office long range text hints at HLB with undercutting lows diving south. 

Fits the theme and possibly picking up on the ‘record breaking’ behaviour of the P.vortex. ?

scillydave
09 November 2026 18:17:24

Met office long range text hints at HLB with undercutting lows diving south. 

Fits the theme and possibly picking up on the ‘record breaking’ behaviour of the P.vortex. ?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

My understanding is that we're too early for the models to be picking up on that just yet - id be watching closely in about a week to ten days time for the first signs. 

Happy to stand corrected by those more knowledgeable amongst us I'm far from an expert!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Jiries
09 November 2026 22:03:22
https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

First -10C one member appearing on the 12z ensembles so hope to see more of those between -10 to -15c this winter. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2026 07:43:26
FAX - Storm Charles moving from the Atlantic to Iberia and N Africa 988mb Thu 12th. Its fronts just reach the S Coast while LP 988mb Norway looks more active at that time, fronts moving down across Scotland on a N-ly. By Fri 13th both are dispelled by HP 1023 mb moving rapidly from Iceland across England and on to Hungary. leaving W-lies.

GFS Op 00z - the above W-lies bring in LP 970mb for Scotland Tue 17th (probably snow on hills, trough extending well south), only slowly drifting NE-wards. Brief ridge of HP Sun 22nd, then an active Atlantic 955mb Iceland with S-ly gales for Britain Wed 25th before W-lies resume.

ECM - like GFS but keeps the LP Tue 17th just N of Scotland but LPs in w/b Mon 23rd compensate by extending troughs further south (980mb N Ireland on 23rd) In general in both GFS and ECM there's a broad band of W-lies across the Atlantic,

AIFS _ London, rain tomorrow (Wed) then maxima down to 5C for the coming weekend with frosty nights; following week temps are up to 11-14C, rain Tue 17th and the weekend of 21st/22nd. Edinburgh, a general 7-8C but milder (12C) Tue 17th and cooler (4c) Mon 23rd; rain as London with spits at other times. Note - disagrees with GFS for 21st/22nd

GEFS - mild now with rain for south, cold (6C below norm) around Fri 13th but dry, then mean well supported by ens members close to norm to Thu 26th (op & control on the cooler side of ens); rain after Sun 15th in most runs on most days, heaviest Tue 17th - Thu 19th

A lot of time on standard North Atlantic fare once the next few days are past


I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
10 November 2026 07:52:29
Please remember the breakout thread for OT discussion is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1725447-Breakout-thread 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Jim-55
10 November 2026 08:57:11

Met office long range text hints at HLB with undercutting lows diving south. 

Fits the theme and possibly picking up on the ‘record breaking’ behaviour of the P.vortex. ?

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

The 18:30 BBC forecast mentioned exactly that yesterday, I think they are getting a tad excited.


Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
Jiries
10 November 2026 10:18:31
https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Can't wait to see -5C coming very soon so more sunshine and frosts overnights and much less use of heating.  Today the HP are leaving taking away the unwanted fog and clouds with it.  Sun breaking out now because incoming LP for tomorrow and seeing the 9 days GFS charts no HP over us thankfully just fleeting attempts which is better as fleeting HP bring lot of sunshine and cold nights than HP over us for weeks.

Remove ads from site