Quite seasonal-looking, though, and may turn increasingly wet next week in the south before generally turning more unsettled widely thereafter.

Fairly chilly too.

Otherwise, staying quiet and relatively settled over inland UK for immediate future.

As said with above post, quite seasonal conditions.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&lid=OP#mapref

 Good looking chart like that no HP and lot of sunshine from this, maybe some snow showers if cold enough in Scotland.  Also same northerly later next week help to keep skies clear too.  

Yes that northerly drags down some cold air that hangs around for the rest of the run. 

Just some hints as well of HLB starting to turn up. 

That the reason as I really want any HP to stay away from here.  It did no good lately, bring lot of clouds, horrible fog like today I really hate so much and rain did not rain here but rain in other places.    Was worried when previous runs was showing HP to persist to mid November once again glad to drop this most dangerous set up.   We not alone as in Europe many want LP to feed snow to the Alps on time and their lowlands than HP over it.  I hope to see at least first -5C 850s to arrive here sooner than later.

GFS Op 00z - That HP moves SE to cover Britain so only the east coast gets the N-lies Thu 12th. Then deep LP steams in from mid-Atlantic 960mb S Ireland Tue 17th preceded by S-ly gales, centre of LP crossing S England. Brief ridge of HP to follow, then another LP moving from the SW towards Cornwall 990mb Tue 24th

ECM - agrees well with GFS until Wed 18th when the LP moves NE-wards past the Western Isles,  light W-lies for England. EDIT now down loaded to t+360;  this LP having moved past Faeroes, swings around past Greenland and receives cold reinforcements so by Mon 23rd there is, like GFS, an LP approaching from the Atlantic but deeper 965mb, colder and heading for N Ireland

AIFS - London, maxima 7-9C this week, rain Wed 11th, cooler with frosty nights for the weekend of 14th. Then fairly mild 10-12C, cooling again Sat 21st, rain Tue 17th and Sat 21st. Edinburgh, cooling to 5C Fri 13th, then up and down over quite a broad range maxima 7-10C to Sat 21st, Dry this week, rain Tue 17th & Sat 21st.

GEFS - In the south, milder Wed 11th, cooler Fri 13th, then mean temp near norm with only a small spread of ens members, rain any day from Wed 11th, most persistent around Tue 17th - Thu 19th, heavier in the SW and in Wales. In the north, the mildness around the 11th is suppressed, and no rain until 16th, again heaviest in west.

Still looking for shift in Polar Vortex to show up in the routine charts; meanwhile the south gets some more rain, just enough to tide it over.

Yes it seems quite a seasonal outlook. I wonder what impact the upcoming SSW will have further down the line. When combined with (or connected to?) the strong El Niño it is somewhat uncharted territory.

At least something more interesting than fog and overcast HP days.  I think November looking below average if this come off and against the LRF which was going for very mild stormy November.

GFS Op 00z - after the above and a fine weekend to follow, LP moves up to the Bristol Channel from the SW 975mb Tue 17th, moving NE-wards and filling, to be replaced by another LP 975mb Ireland Sat 21st, also moving on and filling; then another 975mb Western Isles Tue 24th (and another waiting in mid-Atlantic 970mb). Jet stream quite strong across mid-Atlantic to C Britain during thus time so supporting this string of LPs, but the jet fades out further east so the LPs are no longer driven, and fill.

ECM - the fine weather doesn't last through the weekend as pressure drops over the Atlantic, bringing first SW-lies then NW-lies. The LP Tue 17th runs further north, approaching Scotland before dropping south through Ireland Thu 19th (to t+240; t+360 will download later) ...LATER ... and then returning to Scotland. The next LP is 955mb S of Greenland Sun 22nd; it doesn't get a lot closer but deep enough to produce strong SW-lie, then W-lies for Britain, so probably a front or two passing through.

AIFS - London, maxima 8-10C to Sun 15th with frosty nights bat the weekend; then maxima 10-12C (a little warmer at first) to Mon 23rd; rain 11th, 16th/17th (heavy), 19th and 23rd. Edinburgh, baseline maxima 5-6C but with milder spells Mon 16th (to 15C, i.e. much milder) and Thu 19th (to 10C). The mild and wet spells correlate with the LP arriving off the Atlantic.

GEFS - mild or at least near norm (with rain in S) Wed 11th, then cooler and dry, then  wet from Mon 16th esp in SW,  persisting to 25th, mean and ens near norm , possibly milder at first. 

Enough rain to satisfy the water authorities next week (i.e .week  beginning 15th)? Maybe not yet but it's a good start

HLB is often turning up now especially on the GFS.  It definitely could be onto something.  The SSW gives us a chance 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Counting down to the time to see the back of this horrible fog and overcast dirty HP out, the 06z from what I see there no more HP over top of the UK for rest of November hopefully as you said HLB is more interesting than winter killer HP on top.  More variety on the cold side with sunshine, some frosts and perhaps snow chances if cold enough.  Who need a fog that that no use or benefit to us?  

Fits the theme and possibly picking up on the ‘record breaking’ behaviour of the P.vortex. ?

My understanding is that we're too early for the models to be picking up on that just yet - id be watching closely in about a week to ten days time for the first signs. 

Happy to stand corrected by those more knowledgeable amongst us I'm far from an expert!

First -10C one member appearing on the 12z ensembles so hope to see more of those between -10 to -15c this winter. 

GFS Op 00z - the above W-lies bring in LP 970mb for Scotland Tue 17th (probably snow on hills, trough extending well south), only slowly drifting NE-wards. Brief ridge of HP Sun 22nd, then an active Atlantic 955mb Iceland with S-ly gales for Britain Wed 25th before W-lies resume.

ECM - like GFS but keeps the LP Tue 17th just N of Scotland but LPs in w/b Mon 23rd compensate by extending troughs further south (980mb N Ireland on 23rd) In general in both GFS and ECM there's a broad band of W-lies across the Atlantic,

AIFS _ London, rain tomorrow (Wed) then maxima down to 5C for the coming weekend with frosty nights; following week temps are up to 11-14C, rain Tue 17th and the weekend of 21st/22nd. Edinburgh, a general 7-8C but milder (12C) Tue 17th and cooler (4c) Mon 23rd; rain as London with spits at other times. Note - disagrees with GFS for 21st/22nd

GEFS - mild now with rain for south, cold (6C below norm) around Fri 13th but dry, then mean well supported by ens members close to norm to Thu 26th (op & control on the cooler side of ens); rain after Sun 15th in most runs on most days, heaviest Tue 17th - Thu 19th

A lot of time on standard North Atlantic fare once the next few days are past

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1725447-Breakout-thread 

The 18:30 BBC forecast mentioned exactly that yesterday, I think they are getting a tad excited.

Can't wait to see -5C coming very soon so more sunshine and frosts overnights and much less use of heating.  Today the HP are leaving taking away the unwanted fog and clouds with it.  Sun breaking out now because incoming LP for tomorrow and seeing the 9 days GFS charts no HP over us thankfully just fleeting attempts which is better as fleeting HP bring lot of sunshine and cold nights than HP over us for weeks.