Still a notable number that show no heatwave as such. More runs needed, as we say 

For these keeping count, it has 18 runs (plus the op) hitting 20C at 850mb which is the highest since the June heatwave.

Looking at the 6Z GEFS tables, which I find is the best way of eyeballing an upcoming spell, the peak seems to be July 7th with a median max temperature of 32C in London. The median has three days over 30C (6th to 8th) and 8 or 9 days over 28C (bearing in mind the later temps are 18Z rather than maxima).

We need a new term: "hot zonality".

Comparing the T2m ensemble plots the peak seems to come a bit later but go on for longer, albeit at a slightly less extreme level. Still some 40-41C runs in there though.

Much more sensible to live with but shows how the models, especially AI driven ones can be skewed perhaps from recent events. 

GFS 0z for next week showing maxes in the south of. 30C+ widespread across the south from Wednesday onwards.

Mon: 31C

Tue: 32C

Wed: 34C

Thu: 37C

Fri: 38C

Meanwhile the app for London only show 31C for Friday and rest is high 20s.  Who going to be right this time.  Last heatwave the app was undercooked way too low despite 22C 850s visited here.

Nighttime temps certainly looking much lower than last week. 

GFS Op 0z - picks up the HP and keeps it in position to Thu 9th with mostly Atlantic air in its circulation so fine and warm rather than hot though some continental heat may creep into the far south. Over the weekend Fri 10th - Sun 12th the HP is replaced by LP drifting up from Spain but then the Azores High pushes a broad ridge back to cover Britain until Fri 17th.

ECM to T+240 - similar to GFS, but a less marked breakdown 10th-12th.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 31C around Fri 10th before dropping back to 24C from Mon 13th; dry throughout. Edinburgh, maxima about 17C with light rain to Tue 7th; a pulse of warmth 5C on Thu 9th, then back to upper teens but dry.

GEFS - covers the period today 1st - Fri 17th and there is a reasonably good clustering of ens members. In the south, mean temp around 5C above norm for most of this time (op and control +10C around Sat 11th) but nearer norm at beginning and end; dry throughout.  Further north, the excess above norm fades away to only a degree or two and rain becomes increasingly likely with very few dry breaks in the far north.

AIFS has30+ every day from Monday to Friday, peaking at 32 on Thursday, and its 2m charts always seem to be on the very conservative side. 

GFS on the other hand seems to be going a bit high with temps. Today GFS has a max of 28 while UKV and AIFS go for 25.

My thoughts exactly. 

Of course the media will over hype and catastrophise as much as possible, especially off the back of the late June heatwave. 

Models have conditioned themselves to ‘expect’ more records being reached but in all seriousness it’s currently looking very unlikely. 

Sea temps should be very pleasant however next week and beyond. 

I think you're anthropomorphising the models. With the exception of AIFS which I suppose could "condition" itself, the others are simply dynamical models that produce what the physics tells them.

What's happening is that some runs are flattening the zonal flow. That's locking the searing heat in France. Which is unfortunate for those, like me, planning to be there in the next couple of weeks. We could do with some more meridional blocked synoptics.

How times have changed where a week of 30C+ maxima culminating in two 35C+ days is now just a normal heatwave 🙂

I was just thinking the same. I looked at the GFS 06z. Quite a fresh, zonal run. Decent usable weather. A coolish outlier in the ensemble.

Then looked at the Maxima in London: 27, 26, 27, 31, 30, 32, 31, 32, 34, 34, 28, 30, 30, 27, 29, 33.

A few years ago that would have been a heatwave for the classic threads.

To be honest it still is, bar a few record chasers in this thread, that will be a classic long heatwave.

Its going pete tong.  But at least we can sleep at night. 

I don’t see any sign of anything going wrong. It looks like a week or maybe even longer of temperatures nudging 30C or more in the southeast right at the start of July. If that’s Pete Tong then he can come and play a set in my back garden any day!

Yeah, there’s no sign of that.