Probably - it has been for 2 years now!

Let's just hope it all condenses over Essex!

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-3.5 

MetO chart (has BBC switched back to them yet?) seems to show rain moving up from France, fragmenting into showers when it reaches Britain, and then skipping over the south to intensify in the north!

I wouldn’t hold your breath. 

In our neck of the woods El Ninos (and La Niña) do not start taking effect, if any until approx 4-6 months after the event builds enough strength to be officiated. 

Nonsensical comments about an ‘El Nino August bank holiday monsoon’ are nearly as daft as My Blobby himself. 

Quite a change this morning runs the cooler weather due to arrive after 28th now had been push back and warmer 850's slowly extended to over 8C was 5-6C for the BH weekend   Also look much drier with few spikes no more than 2mm.  This changes due to the E Med which was going for 25-26C 850s over the last few days of August had been cancelled and drop it to 20C witth quite few member go down as low as 16C with welcome rain spikes appeared for Nicosia.  I use Nicosia, Nuneaton and London ensembles to view so when E Med get cooler here get better normally and a good guidance.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 00z - agrees with FAX; the last of the above LPs arrives in N Ireland 100mb Mon 31st. Then a week of standard westerlies, unsettled in the north, fine in the south, before a deeper LP 985mb Western Isles Sun 6th causes a general drop in pressure. Finally the ex-hurricane (on a different track each day) adds to the circulation of this LP and, although filling, extends the drop in pressure southwards to affect S England as well.

ECM - similar to GFS but fits in an extra LP 995mb Irish Sea Wed 2nd before the westerlies appear.

AIFS - London, maxima 24C Wed 26th before slipping to 18C Tue 1st, then a recovery to 23C Sun 6th. Rain every day for a week starting Wed 26th, no great amounts. Edinburgh, briefly 20C then 15-18C through to Mon 7th. Rain, slightly heavier than London, every day from Fri 28th.

GEFS - mean temp has good ens support to Tue 1st then a spread develops. Mean a couple of degrees above norm for the next 2-3 Days then close to norm to Wed 9th (op a cold outlier at the end). Rain in most runs on most days from Wed 26th (Scotland from 27th), heaviest early on, less probable later in the S and W but remaining heavy and persistent near NE England.

The Met Office app shows no more than a 50% chance of rain this week IMBY. That can change of course but until it shows 100% I'm not optimistic for meaningful rain here.

Is it? Looks like torrential downpours possible from Wednesday onwards

The rain spikes are certainly getting smaller with most passing run. Take London for example, which looked much wetter only a couple of days ago:

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=4&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Then hints of a pressure surge for the start of next month continues to be modelled:

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=23&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

When you get these lows coming up from the south they are a forecaster's nightmare. There is usually no traditional frontal rain, just showery stuff that just might or probably won't give rain to places that need it. (MBY) Then as the low trundles north, it regenerates for some reason that I've never been able to understand and dumps copious amounts of rain further north. I'm placing my hopes for the second low to deliver rain IMBY. But I won't put money on it. Last night's showery stuff, for what it was worth, came across from France and then gave up the ghost in the Channel. It's done this so many times in the past few years.

There was many wet outliers now being removed just near flat lines and never more than 1 or 2mm or rain from showers.  Strange other side all about rain hopecasting posts and unsettled weather but no interest with this week warm weather which will be 25C on the app mean mid to high 20's by tomorrow peak then a slight drop to still above average.  Some hints of warm up in early September so need to see at trend to be warmer to hot and longer lasting one.

GFS Op 00z - agrees with FAX although the LP Thu 27th extends a more definite trough NE-wards. Then that LP on the 29th moves across  N England 1000mb Sun 30th initiating a week of westerlies, unsettled in the north and fine in the south.  On Mon 7th, the latest track for the ex-hurricane takes it to Cornwall, only 995mb by then, running away SE-wards with a general pressure rise behind it. 

ECM agrees with GFS to Fri 4th when the ex-hurricane is already not too far off in the Atlantic, weaker than on GFS but with enough influence to turn winds into milder/warmer and likely humid SW-lies rather than W-lies.

AIFS - London, maxima soon dropping to 20-21C (a couple of days warmer 4th/5th), limited amount of rain every day to Wed 2nd then drying up. Edinburgh, maxima 16-18C, also with warmer days Wed 26th and Fri 4th; rain on most days from Fri 28th but brief drier slots Thu 3rd and Mon 7th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support for the first week, and not too bad after that; a little above norm for the rest of this week, then close to norm (op & control on the cool side after Sat 5th). Rain from one run or another on most days to Thu 10th, probably heaviest this week but no easily summarisable trend.

Thursday morning on the MetO rainfall forecast is a perfect example. A decently active front sets out from France, splits mid-channel with half going to the West Country and half to Kent. then as it moves north, these two halves join up again and there's heavy rain for the Midlands, having skipped over south central England.

Hope so as the 12z show wide options up to 15C to -3C on 8th September so some interest what it will happen next month, this coming weekend doesn't look cool as it been slowly edging up to near 10C to the end of the month.   

the extended 12z looks hot. 

lets see if its still there in the morning

GFS Op 00z - the week continues from where FAX left off, with the 'general area of LP'  becoming more localised near N Scotland with W-lies for Britain (usual unsettled north, fine in the south) which then deepens 985mb Moray Fri 4th and affects all of Britain with N-lies behind it. Then something of a trough slow to clear before a general rise in pressure from the SW Thu 10th. The ex-hurricane which has been making occasional appearances on GFS has been cancelled in today's charts.

ECM - follows the general trend of GFS but for the week to Fri 4th places the LP around the Faeroes rather than N Scotland, offering settled weather to Scotland and some potential heat in S England, not just 'fine'.

AIFS - London, an overall trend of maxima from 25C now to 17C by Wed 9th interrupted by a burst of heat, back to 25C for a day or two around Sat 5th. Rain on most days to the 9th, but significant amounts only in the first week. Edinburgh, same trend in maxima but 4 or 5C lower than London. Again, rain on most days, but here in bursts, heaviest Fri 28th, Wed 2nd and Sun 6th.

GEFS - mean temp well supported by ens members dropping to norm and staying there to Thu 3rd. Then wide divergence between ens members, mostly warm to Sun 6th after which a choice between op (8C above norm in the S, only 1 or 2 C in north) and control (6C below), mean near norm in south, cooler in north. Rain fairly certain to Mon 31st everywhere, then dry-ish but some runs with notably heavy falls in S; but in NW England and S Scotland the instances of heavy rain are much more frequent. 

Another revival of summer for the weekend of Sat/Sun 5th/6th - but only for ECM followers