FAX - LP currently west of Brittany 1004mb steering a course up the west coast of Britain and crossing over the Borders to the N Sea 995mb Sat 29th, by that date followed by another moving from the Atlantic to Wales 999mb reinforced by a third LP forming a general area of LP ca 1000mb from Iceland to N England Sun 30th. Plenty of fronts moving in from first the south, then the west, but on past form these have yet to live up to the forecast of heavy rain. One of these days ...
GFS Op 00z - the week continues from where FAX left off, with the 'general area of LP' becoming more localised near N Scotland with W-lies for Britain (usual unsettled north, fine in the south) which then deepens 985mb Moray Fri 4th and affects all of Britain with N-lies behind it. Then something of a trough slow to clear before a general rise in pressure from the SW Thu 10th. The ex-hurricane which has been making occasional appearances on GFS has been cancelled in today's charts.
ECM - follows the general trend of GFS but for the week to Fri 4th places the LP around the Faeroes rather than N Scotland, offering settled weather to Scotland and some potential heat in S England, not just 'fine'.
AIFS - London, an overall trend of maxima from 25C now to 17C by Wed 9th interrupted by a burst of heat, back to 25C for a day or two around Sat 5th. Rain on most days to the 9th, but significant amounts only in the first week. Edinburgh, same trend in maxima but 4 or 5C lower than London. Again, rain on most days, but here in bursts, heaviest Fri 28th, Wed 2nd and Sun 6th.
GEFS - mean temp well supported by ens members dropping to norm and staying there to Thu 3rd. Then wide divergence between ens members, mostly warm to Sun 6th after which a choice between op (8C above norm in the S, only 1 or 2 C in north) and control (6C below), mean near norm in south, cooler in north. Rain fairly certain to Mon 31st everywhere, then dry-ish but some runs with notably heavy falls in S; but in NW England and S Scotland the instances of heavy rain are much more frequent.
Another revival of summer for the weekend of Sat/Sun 5th/6th - but only for ECM followers
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard
Chichester 12m asl