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Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2026 17:18:28

It's incredible. I just referenced it in the heatwave thread. It's going for 40C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1705921-Early-to-Mid-July-2026-Heatwave-discussion-and-analysis 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Longest and hottest run I can remember seeing. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
02 July 2026 17:20:48

It's incredible. I just referenced it in the heatwave thread. It's going for 40C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1705921-Early-to-Mid-July-2026-Heatwave-discussion-and-analysis 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Anyone care to calculate/estimate what the July CET would be like by the end of the run if that came off? 22C? 23C?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2026 17:39:00

Longest and hottest run I can remember seeing. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It’s not the hottest either. See P24.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
+3
Brian Gaze
02 July 2026 17:44:39

It’s not the hottest either. See P24.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

What I was talking about the other day. 45C!

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+3
Rob K
02 July 2026 17:55:14

What I was talking about the other day. 45C!

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

consecutive days 37, 39, 41, 44, 45, 40.... five or six 100F days in a row anyone? If that comes off then as Les Dennis said, I will give you the money myself!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
02 July 2026 18:11:33

GFS 12z is an incredible run 30c to 37c all the way from Saturday to the end of the run. 15 days in a row.

Ends with 40c plus lol

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes and those 40s quite far north Snowman.

Glad conversation is on 40s again and not 50s!

60s here.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2026 18:22:20

Yes and those 40s quite far north Snowman.

Glad conversation is on 40s again and not 50s!

60s here.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yep crazy run. It has 50c in France 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
scillydave
02 July 2026 18:37:28

What I was talking about the other day. 45C!

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

And that's at 6pm - possibly even hotter earlier in the day. 46c anyone?!!!

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

saxtemp
02 July 2026 19:30:29
You can write off one pertubation, but even the control has 43c

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Rob K
02 July 2026 19:53:21
For the thickness fans, the 12Z op run has 583dam in the SE corner on 17 July. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Matty H
02 July 2026 21:03:20

What I was talking about the other day. 45C!

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Bring it on!!!!

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2026 21:17:05
The more reliable, less scary ECM has an almost equally lengthy heatwave but it never gets quite as hot. Then turns a tad chilly right at the end.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
+1
idj20
02 July 2026 23:23:47
Tail end of 18z GFS & 12z ECM shows the school Summer holiday curse. 🤣
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 05:17:08
FAX - HP lying not far from SW Britain for the next few days with fronts drifting across Scotland. Atlantic source of air so not wildly hot.

GFS Op 18z, today's chart  not yet downloading - HP from the SW drifting across britain to N Sea by Fri 10th and switching winds from W-ly to S-ly. Continental LP then affecting the south but by Thu 16th combining with Atlantic LP 995mb N Ireland and fresher SW-ly for all

ECM & AIFS today's charts not available at this time

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+2
Crepuscular Ray
03 July 2026 06:36:52
'My take' on the 00z charts available this morning. N. Ireland, most of Scotland, Northern England and North Wales are in for five days of cloudy, humid, damp weather with cloud down on the hills and some high rainfall totals on western upslopes. It'll be humid and 17 - 22 C

South and east of this area will be very warm, humid and mostly dry as seems to be normal this summer with sunny spells and highs of 23 - 30 C

Looking further ahead to five to ten days ahead, the northern and western area above should turn drier, brighter and drier, temperatures will be higher, maybe 20 - 25 C. Not quite a heatwave!

The southern and eastern areas however will continue to hot up to 28 - 33 C with another  heatwave likely for some

In the excitement though lets not forget that for the northern two-thirds of the UK, the normal summer continues 

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

+1
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 07:28:49
Humidity looks decently moderate throughout the next couple of weeks, on all the models. DPs between as low as 6-7 at times, and 14-15 at others. That’s nice.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
03 July 2026 07:44:12
I had a brief look at the 00Z GFS on Meteociel and thought it looked a less hot run. But the temperature charts still have 11 straight days at 32C or above.

Still only about a 1 in 3 chance of 850mb temps hitting 20C on the GEFS though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 07:49:32

I had a brief look at the 00Z GFS on Meteociel and thought it looked a less hot run. But the temperature charts still have 11 straight days at 32C or above.

Still only about a 1 in 3 chance of 850mb temps hitting 30C on the GEFS though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think given the position of the anticyclone and the quite blocked pattern there is a "home grown heat" factor playing into this - a bit like 2018.  

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

+1
fairweather
03 July 2026 15:10:03
Am I missing something here? All the ensemble means I'm looking at are showing a long hot spell but peaking in London with just a couple of days about 31C and mostly high 20's. Yes, in my area one of those could push a bit higher but it doesn't look as unbearable as May and June ones - just a good summer hot spell. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
03 July 2026 16:56:02

Am I missing something here? All the ensemble means I'm looking at are showing a long hot spell but peaking in London with just a couple of days about 31C and mostly high 20's. Yes, in my area one of those could push a bit higher but it doesn't look as unbearable as May and June ones - just a good summer hot spell. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

What do you think you’re missing? That’s what the models have been showing - a high 20s to low 30s spell for the south but with notable longevity. 

Having said that, the latest 12Z shows the school holiday effect and is the first properly unsettled run for a long time. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 17:00:32

What do you think you’re missing? That’s what the models have been showing - a high 20s to low 30s spell for the south but with notable longevity. 

Having said that, the latest 12Z shows the school holiday effect and is the first properly unsettled run for a long time. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It’s the first full GFS op run since my daughter broke up from school this afternoon. The curse is real!

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
03 July 2026 18:09:42
I like the FI of the 12z GFS today - couldn't be any more different than yesterday's absurdly hot one.

It'd be a real change to see a cold pool right over the UK, but I'd suggest that's even less likely than 40C+ temperatures...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/9917/gfs_1_234bzo7.png 

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https://images.meteociel.fr/im/46/28308/gfs_1_330hoc3.png 

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Leysdown, north Kent
+1
ozoneaurora
03 July 2026 18:30:12

I like the FI of the 12z GFS today - couldn't be any more different than yesterday's absurdly hot one.

It'd be a real change to see a cold pool right over the UK, but I'd suggest that's even less likely than 40C+ temperatures...

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/9917/gfs_1_234bzo7.png 

UserPostedImage

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/46/28308/gfs_1_330hoc3.png 

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Originally Posted by: Retron 

It'll be good for France after it suffered astonishingly intense heat, though of course, not if flash floods occur.

Tom Oxon
03 July 2026 20:37:24

Am I missing something here? All the ensemble means I'm looking at are showing a long hot spell but peaking in London with just a couple of days about 31C and mostly high 20's. Yes, in my area one of those could push a bit higher but it doesn't look as unbearable as May and June ones - just a good summer hot spell. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Quite agree - it is pretty localised to the Midlands and South, but if you're in those areas, enjoy it whilst it lasts - really pleasant. 

Bit of a breeze here today, could do with that dropping, 26C would have been great without it.

S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
+1
Matty H
03 July 2026 21:16:21

What do you think you’re missing? That’s what the models have been showing - a high 20s to low 30s spell for the south but with notable longevity. 

Having said that, the latest 12Z shows the school holiday effect and is the first properly unsettled run for a long time. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

This. I’m wondering what I’m missing as the chat has reflected the output 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+1

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