The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
30 June 2026 12:19:12
The trend so far today seems to be towards a low- to mid-30s°C heatwave next week rather than something more extreme. That said, as GEFS P14 showed earlier, there are still record-breaking scenarios appearing in the output. I don't have time to go fishing, but at a quick glance, the highest temperature I can see in the ECM stamps is 38°C.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Matty H
30 June 2026 12:43:18

The trend so far today seems to be towards a low- to mid-30s°C heatwave next week rather than something more extreme. That said, as GEFS P14 showed earlier, there are still record-breaking scenarios appearing in the output. I don't have time to go fishing, but at a quick glance, the highest temperature I can see in the ECM stamps is 38°C.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Still a notable number that show no heatwave as such. More runs needed, as we say 

Yate, Nr Bristol

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Rob K
30 June 2026 12:43:24
The 6Z GEFS also has some extreme runs, P6 has five days with 40C+ (not consecutive) and nine 36C+ (including seven consecutive).

For these keeping count, it has 18 runs (plus the op) hitting 20C at 850mb which is the highest since the June heatwave.

Looking at the 6Z GEFS tables, which I find is the best way of eyeballing an upcoming spell, the peak seems to be July 7th with a median max temperature of 32C in London. The median has three days over 30C (6th to 8th) and 8 or 9 days over 28C (bearing in mind the later temps are 18Z rather than maxima).

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Rob K
30 June 2026 17:09:36
12z op run is another less extreme option but still manages over a week of 30C+ maxima in the south with a peak of 36-37. And looks like a potential reload at the end too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 June 2026 17:18:21

12z op run is another less extreme option but still manages over a week of 30C+ maxima in the south with a peak of 36-37. And looks like a potential reload at the end too.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

We need a new term: "hot zonality".

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
+1
Rob K
30 June 2026 18:39:56
12Z GEFS still has 18 runs hitting 20C in London, although the op isn't one of them this time.

Comparing the T2m ensemble plots the peak seems to come a bit later but go on for longer, albeit at a slightly less extreme level. Still some 40-41C runs in there though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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