The Weather Outlook

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Hungry Tiger
27 June 2026 09:48:50
I couldn't stand another one.  🙂🙁
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
27 June 2026 10:48:50

So we could well see a new heat record going across three consecutive months, that would be extraordinarily rare if that came off. Seems the school summer holiday curse won't be in play this year - still room for that, though.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

We’d certainly have to go some to get a third consecutive monthly record, given July 2022! But never say never. 

And it’s a bit early to make any calls about school holidays considering they are still three weeks away!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

MRazzell
27 June 2026 10:58:36

2024 was a below average summer with plenty of rain especially in Western Scotland.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes, no doubt it achieved some kind of average temp record but even down here in my corner of E-Sussex I remember 2024 as the summer that never happened. Despite the droughts and extreme heat there will still be years that don't deliver either. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
JOHN NI
27 June 2026 12:16:36

I don't think every summer will be that way.

But we seem to be going through a period of hotter summers at the moment.

Like buses they all come at once.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Yes, our memories are fickle. Remember the run of horrific summers between 2007 and 2012. Wet summers will return....admittedly a warmer version.....


John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 13:25:56
AIFS 6z is completely bonkers again high 30s likely. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
27 June 2026 14:37:49

Yes, our memories are fickle. Remember the run of horrific summers between 2007 and 2012. Wet summers will return....admittedly a warmer version.....

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

 2012 was a long time ago though and I’m already fed up with waiting for the next wet summer.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

doctormog
27 June 2026 14:45:49

2012 was a long time ago though and I’m already fed up with waiting for the next wet summer.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I think the summers of 2017, 2019 and 2020 were also wetter than average. I guess we are “overdue” one based on statistics but as that is not how the weather works, nor indeed our recent climate, who knows when the next one will be.

That aside, as others have suggested, I think the cooldown to (closer to) average maybe be relatively short-lived based on the trends in the model output for the last day or two with the chance of more anomalous warmth in the medium term.


Rob K
27 June 2026 16:06:20
7 of the 6Z GEFS runs hit 20C+ at 850mb in London, and another 12 hit 16C+. That's a pretty strong signal at long range, definitely eyes on week two of July...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
27 June 2026 17:08:03
LOL... about that July record. GFS op run from July 6 goes 30, 32, 35, 37, 40, 41, 38, 37 (by midday)...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 17:24:43

LOL... about that July record. GFS op run goes 30, 32, 35, 37, 40, 41, 38...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Brutal heat, a game changing summer perhaps.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 17:40:49

Brutal heat, a game changing summer perhaps.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Maybe lifechanging Snowman, if the wbt modelled around the Bristol area for july 12th were to come off.

34C wbt- with 35 thought to be not life sustaining.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Retron
27 June 2026 17:46:17

Maybe lifechanging Snowman, if the wbt modelled around the Bristol area for july 12th were to come off.

34C wbt- with 35 thought to be not life sustaining.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Mmm, do you have a link for the 34C wbt chart? That seems rather high! (EDIT: For comparison, at one point yesterday here it was 30.3, dew 23.3, which gives a WBT of about 25C. At 40C you would need a dewpoint of 32 to get a 34C WBT, and at 35C it'd be 33. And below 34C it'd be impossible!

The dewpoint charts from the 12z GFS show a classic 2022-style desert-like effect with those high temperatures, the sort of dessicating heat which is most effective at making things tinder dry. I hope it doesn't happen, but I have a bit of a sinking feeling about it all!

Here's the chart for the 11th July, but the surrounding days are similar. Dewpoints are subzero across much of the Midlands, and earlier in the day they're as low as -3 - which, combined with an air temperature of 39C, works out as just 7% RH - dangerously dry.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/22674/336_101UKvhd7.GIF 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/19577/336_580UKjbn9.GIF 

UserPostedImageUserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 17:48:32

Maybe lifechanging Snowman, if the wbt modelled around the Bristol area for july 12th were to come off.

34C wbt- with 35 thought to be not life sustaining.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

What's scary is where are we going to be in 10, 20, 30 years?? There's no stopping this now.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 17:59:09
Here's what's on there atm, but I do prefer your forecasts!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=345&chartname=ukwbt&chartregion=uk&charttag=WBT 

The 34 is 0GMT- maybe more towards Gloucester, not sure. Take a look before they take it down- I can't work out how to post screen shots anymore!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Retron
27 June 2026 18:03:48

Here's what's on there atm, but I do prefer your forecasts!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=345&chartname=ukwbt&chartregion=uk&charttag=WBT 

The 34 is 0GMT- maybe more towards Gloucester, not sure. Take a look before they take it down- I can't work out how to post screen shots anymore!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yeah, that's way off - either a dodgy data field (if GFS provides it, does it?) or a dodgy calc.

35C (taking the max chart) and a dewpoint of 16 gives a WBT of 23 - oppressive, but not life-threatening. You would need a humidity of near enough 100% to get a 34C WBT with a 35C air temperature!


Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 18:04:10
Weird but the shot for 0hrs shows 34 and the click on for 03z shows only 20.

Please can someone see it before I look like a fabricator!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 18:05:31

Yeah, that's way off - either a dodgy data field (if GFS provides it, does it?) or a dodgy calc.

35C (taking the max chart) and a dewpoint of 16 gives a WBT of 23 - oppressive, but not life-threatening. You would need a humidity of near enough 100% to get a 34C WBT with a 35C air temperature!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks Darren.

I was just preparing rosaries for my littluns.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 18:26:29
Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 19:45:22

Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Latest ECM backing up another heatwave too.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Jiries
27 June 2026 19:51:25

Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Saw the ensembles there a lot going to 20C with highest of 22C for here and not outlier as there some members support.  I just posted in other thread if July going to break another record, which is tall order, plus if occur again in August then September would be 5 months of record broken in the row.  Very dry run too so that will aid higher temperatures.

saxtemp
27 June 2026 21:35:13
GEFS Control showing 37c, and P13 showing 40c

UserPostedImage

Matty H
27 June 2026 23:53:21

GEFS Control showing 37c, and P13 showing 40c

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Awesome!!!!!


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 06:38:18

Awesome!!!!!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

AWful! but you can prove anything with a good cherry-picker.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 07:10:07
FAX - decaying fronts sweeping from the west today, so probably no more than a little light rain. Another depression 1010mb NI Tue 30th again decaying as it runs up against HP to the east, and a repeat on Thu 2nd, all keeping cooler westerlies going; but pressure rising behind the last of these.

GFS Op 0z - As FAX; then the rise in pressure resolves into a cell ca 1030mb off SW Ireland which persists there with light W?NW winds through to Tue 14th - reasonably warm but not extreme (perhaps a bit hotter esp in the S around Fri 10th when the centre of the HP moves closer before retreating)

ECM to T+240 - like GFS at first but the HP cell moves east from Ireland to reach the N Sea 1020mb Tue 7th introducing heat from France again.

AIFS - London, maxima rising steadily from 24C now to 35C Sun 12th, sunny with only traces of rain. Edinburgh, maxima generally 16-18C to Wed 8th, only then warmer into low 20s. Rain at intervals; driest days at weekends Sat 4th and 11th. More of a direct westerly flow than shown on GFS.

GEFS - mean temp (reasonably well supported by ens btu the usual spread later on) starting at norm increasing to 4 or 5C above norm in the SW but staying at norm in the NE. Rather dry in the SW grading to modest amounts of rain at intervals in the NE

Typical summer weather - quite warm in the far south but only AIFS goes for the peaks of temp seen recently.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Charmhills
28 June 2026 08:16:01
After a fresher, coolish week, the warmth returns.

How warm and how humid remains to be seen??

Continuing to look dry/very dry now for the next 10 days or more away from the north.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

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