The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 17:48:32

Maybe lifechanging Snowman, if the wbt modelled around the Bristol area for july 12th were to come off.

34C wbt- with 35 thought to be not life sustaining.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

What's scary is where are we going to be in 10, 20, 30 years?? There's no stopping this now.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 17:59:09
Here's what's on there atm, but I do prefer your forecasts!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=345&chartname=ukwbt&chartregion=uk&charttag=WBT 

The 34 is 0GMT- maybe more towards Gloucester, not sure. Take a look before they take it down- I can't work out how to post screen shots anymore!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Retron
27 June 2026 18:03:48

Here's what's on there atm, but I do prefer your forecasts!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=345&chartname=ukwbt&chartregion=uk&charttag=WBT 

The 34 is 0GMT- maybe more towards Gloucester, not sure. Take a look before they take it down- I can't work out how to post screen shots anymore!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Yeah, that's way off - either a dodgy data field (if GFS provides it, does it?) or a dodgy calc.

35C (taking the max chart) and a dewpoint of 16 gives a WBT of 23 - oppressive, but not life-threatening. You would need a humidity of near enough 100% to get a 34C WBT with a 35C air temperature!


Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 18:04:10
Weird but the shot for 0hrs shows 34 and the click on for 03z shows only 20.

Please can someone see it before I look like a fabricator!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 18:05:31

Yeah, that's way off - either a dodgy data field (if GFS provides it, does it?) or a dodgy calc.

35C (taking the max chart) and a dewpoint of 16 gives a WBT of 23 - oppressive, but not life-threatening. You would need a humidity of near enough 100% to get a 34C WBT with a 35C air temperature!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks Darren.

I was just preparing rosaries for my littluns.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 18:26:29
Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 June 2026 19:45:22

Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Latest ECM backing up another heatwave too.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Jiries
27 June 2026 19:51:25

Full set of significant heatwaves on the 12s. Temps likely what we've just had at least. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Saw the ensembles there a lot going to 20C with highest of 22C for here and not outlier as there some members support.  I just posted in other thread if July going to break another record, which is tall order, plus if occur again in August then September would be 5 months of record broken in the row.  Very dry run too so that will aid higher temperatures.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 07:10:07
FAX - decaying fronts sweeping from the west today, so probably no more than a little light rain. Another depression 1010mb NI Tue 30th again decaying as it runs up against HP to the east, and a repeat on Thu 2nd, all keeping cooler westerlies going; but pressure rising behind the last of these.

GFS Op 0z - As FAX; then the rise in pressure resolves into a cell ca 1030mb off SW Ireland which persists there with light W?NW winds through to Tue 14th - reasonably warm but not extreme (perhaps a bit hotter esp in the S around Fri 10th when the centre of the HP moves closer before retreating)

ECM to T+240 - like GFS at first but the HP cell moves east from Ireland to reach the N Sea 1020mb Tue 7th introducing heat from France again.

AIFS - London, maxima rising steadily from 24C now to 35C Sun 12th, sunny with only traces of rain. Edinburgh, maxima generally 16-18C to Wed 8th, only then warmer into low 20s. Rain at intervals; driest days at weekends Sat 4th and 11th. More of a direct westerly flow than shown on GFS.

GEFS - mean temp (reasonably well supported by ens btu the usual spread later on) starting at norm increasing to 4 or 5C above norm in the SW but staying at norm in the NE. Rather dry in the SW grading to modest amounts of rain at intervals in the NE

Typical summer weather - quite warm in the far south but only AIFS goes for the peaks of temp seen recently.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Charmhills
28 June 2026 08:16:01
After a fresher, coolish week, the warmth returns.

How warm and how humid remains to be seen??

Continuing to look dry/very dry now for the next 10 days or more away from the north.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

The Beast from the East
28 June 2026 09:25:02
ECM and GFS at odds about whether the azores ridge can make it across. 
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
28 June 2026 09:36:27
EC bullish still about hell on earth chapter 3:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Gfs not into it at all. AIFS shows a warm up, albeit only a heatwave of yesteryear with 30c maxes 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 09:48:43

EC bullish still about hell on earth chapter 3:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Gfs not into it at all. AIFS shows a warm up, albeit only a heatwave of yesteryear with 30c maxes 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Indeed AIFS looks quite pleasant compared to the brutally hot ECM this morning.  GEM goes very hot as well.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
28 June 2026 10:36:15

ECM and GFS at odds about whether the azores ridge can make it across. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

6z GFS changes tack- much closer to ECM.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 10:51:32

6z GFS changes tack- much closer to ECM.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed a cheeky 41c again from the GFS 6z.  Definitely within the envelope of outcomes.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
28 June 2026 11:19:03

Indeed a cheeky 41c again from the GFS 6z.  Definitely within the envelope of outcomes.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And hints of another wave to follow at the end of the run. Feels like this heat over Europe is going nowhere this summer, and we’ll (hopefully) get wave after wave of heat across us with brief respites

That’s not a forecast. Just a “feels like”


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
28 June 2026 11:19:37
7 more 30C days on the GFS 6Z and it looks like there would be more to come with HP in place across the south. Ensembles seem to be trending upwards too.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2026 17:58:08
Apparently ECM is having issues so we might not get an ECM 12z or AIFS 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
28 June 2026 18:03:43
UKMO 12Z looks fairly settled although not super warm as the HP is a bit far west, so the flow is slightly northerly. In fact it allows a bit of light rain in.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Retron
28 June 2026 18:05:40

Apparently ECM is having issues so we might not get an ECM 12z or AIFS 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

"06z and 12z ECMWF runs will be heavily delayed because of a power issue at Bologna" as MC says. Interesting that they're not run at Reading any more!


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
28 June 2026 18:37:28
10 of the 12Z GEFS runs exceed 20C at 850mb, so holding pretty steady as far as heatwave potential goes. If you lower the threshold to 16C then 24 of them hit the target, albeit some of them only briefly.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
28 June 2026 21:28:08

"06z and 12z ECMWF runs will be heavily delayed because of a power issue at Bologna" as MC says. Interesting that they're not run at Reading any more!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

They were moved from Reading to Bologna in 2022.

https://annualreport.ecmwf.int/en/annual-report-2022/ecmwfs-data-handling-system-moves-reading-bologna 

The latest update on the situation is:

28 June 2026, 20:50 UTC Majority of 06 cycle products remain available for dissemination. The 12 cycle remains delayed. Recovery efforts continue. We will provide updates every hour. Next update 21:50 UTC. Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience.

 

There have also been issues with Meteo France data dissemination to OVHcloud today.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Tom Oxon
28 June 2026 22:29:28
My take is the ens outlook still looks super messy.  Some warm uppers but the ECM 12z op was definitely towards the top of the pack.

I think there's growing confidence week 2 of July is looking warmer, but I think we could be a way off getting a repeat of what we've just experienced.

That said, with high 20s, it would be really, really pleasant.


S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
The Beast from the East
29 June 2026 02:00:36
Has the ECM 12z come out yet?

GFS 18z looks very warm, though control shows how it could (hopefully from my POV) go pete tong


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2026 04:39:28
Not good 🥵🥵🥵

Hopefully GFS 0z over doing it

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=207&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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