BBC weather only has one day that doesn't reach 25C here in the entire 14 day forecast!

The BBC weather app and website automated forecasts are shockingly bad for here. It’s supposed to have been drizzly and about 21°C here just now based on this morning’s “forecast”. The reality is 28°C and sunny. The temperature reaches 20°C on one day in the entire current forecast, the models say several days and maybe up to 23°C. I think that even the “postcode” forecast has us half in the sea.

Arome 12z - 37C wed in the london area - possible urban heat island distortion given the surrounding home counties are in the region of 32-25C.

Arpege 18z - Wed has 35/36 in north Hampshire/Berkshire territory, Thu pushes 36/37/38 into North Hants/Wilts/Somerset/North Dorset.

UKV 15z - Almost identical to Arpege 18z across Wed & Thu, the West Midland 39/40C furnace has disappeared.

I think I'm going to punt for 38.xC in Hampshire as our new June record.

GFS Op 0z - follows on from FAX and initiates a period from Sun 28th through to Thu 9th with HP lurking to the SW, sometimes closer with ridge to Britain (Tue 30th, Mon 6th), sometimes withdrawing and allowing cooler NW-lies to predominate (Fri 3rd, Wed 8th). On Fri 10th the Atlantic asserts itself and projects LP to the Western Isles 995mb, cool with LP for all.

ECM (to T+240) - similar to GFS but with the centre of HP further west after 28th with a steadier westerly as a result.

AIFS - London, staying at 33-35C to Fri 26th, then sliding  downwards quickly, eventually to 20C on Tue 30th, followed by a slow rise to 25C Wed 8th. Rain at intervals from Sun 28th - Thu 2nd. Edinburgh, peak 23C Thu 25th, dipping on Fri with rain, then a brief recovery before decreasing to 17C Tue 30th with more rain, followed by a rise to 20C Tue 7th but small amounts of rain from time to time. 

GEFS - In the S, temps (both mean and ens agreement) from 13C above norm Fri 26th to norm Mon 29th and staying there. A few sharp peaks of (showery?) rain to 29th then dry in nearly all runs in the far S, some chances of rain further north in England. In Scotland, similar dramatic drop in temp (though the peak heat is only for one day, the 26th) ,  and although mean stays near norm, even a bit below, after the weekend there is less ens agreement; more definite rain on 26th and higher chances of rain later esp in west.

Cooler, fresher conditions after the heat with temps close to average.

A few showers around but a fairly dry picture continues.

Interestingly UKV has reintroduced 39/40C in the Dorset/Wilts/Wants area for tomorrow, but is out on its own there and not being backed up by professional forecasts.

😄

With the way that this is all going just now, that next heatwave will probably end up happening sometime in July regardless of what the models are actually saying about that.

Just a week or so ago, I didn't think that we would get anything else this year which would come even close to matching what happened in May, let alone actually beat that. However, that prediction was probably based on the old climate whereas climate change has now completely changed the goalposts for that and greatly increased the chances of such an event happening.

Because of that, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that event when it no doubt happens in the second half of July, ends up beating this one with the temperature exceeding 40°C somewhere in the UK and beating the record from 2022.

Given all of the other impacts which that event in 2022 had on what was happening in the UK in general, that is a very scary thought.

And when will this one end? Latest GFS doesn't have a proper cooldown (below 26C) until next Thursday now...

Perhaps for you...

For here (not even halfway up the UK), Sunday temps will be around 20-22c, and bobbling around 20-21c through the following week.

I may be misremembering, but have a feeling this current one started off the same way. Then the higher temps would probably only impact the SE and be get to 30c. Then some output showed a wider region affected. And so on.

Every great oak, etc, etc*

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.

* this adage doesn't apply to winter, where the saplings of 'great Arctic blasts' get munched by the grazing herbivores of Atlantic filth

I think we're on for a new high tomorrow, quite a few pockets of 37C

Hampshire/Wilts/Somerset/Sussex/Gloucs all have contenders.  I'd probably stick with Hants or Wilts taking the crown, 37.xC, probably high, possibly squeaking a low 38C.

The Suffolk furnance for Friday has been downgraded, tomorrow is looking like the absolute peak.

Talking of GFS, the 12Z run seems to keep things fairly settled in the south next week with temperatures starting to climb again by next weekend.

Amazing to think we still have over two months of summer left!

Well right on cue GFS 12z produces its hottest run for a while.

I literally came here to say same, next week looks already better with HP hanging on ok in the south and then it looks like another heatwave developing, long way off but the background signal in terms of upstream pattern are favouring a repeating pattern.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=51243&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-24&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

I like this gives my 33/1 bet for the Scottish heat record a little boost imo 33c on the models can easily be corrected >2c in reality around these parts!

Some fairly lively atmospherics over northern Wales on Friday morning. pushing into Merseyside/Lancs/Cumbria/W Yorks later on.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/18_43_ukcape.png 

Excellent them cape values are ridiculous especially for the north! 

Just a quick edit because this British understatement of ours is not doing this justice 😂

"Fairly lively"

Cape values of 3000 J/kg is pure, unadulterated American Tornado Alley weather!

Dude your weather as a much relevance to the fellas in the South East of England as the polar bears weather on Svalbard does🤣🤣

GFS Op 0z - for w/b Sun 28th, HP tries a come-back with a ridge across N England and again warmth for the south on easterlies. This doesn't last as the HP withdraws to the Atlantic and winds go back to W-ly, then NW-ly. For w/b Sun 5th series of LPs become the controlling feature with the source of air  being the north Atlantic - .LP centres Sun 5th 990mb Faeroes, then Tue 7th 1000mb N England then Sat 11th 1005mb Cornwall 

ECM - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, peak maximum 33C Fri 26th followed by a drop to low 20s C with a little rain Sun 28th - Fri 3rd. Then drier and progressively warmer to 30C by Fri 10th (doesn't match GFS Op). Edinburgh, a couple of peaks Thu & Sat, otherwise maxima in upper teens through to Tue 7th before rapidly rising to 25C . Quite a lot of rain in the coming week, then dry.  Winds in both cases mostly from a westerly point (London E-ly at first and S-ly at the end)

GEFS - Temps dropping from 14C above norm now(less in Scotland) to norm by Sun 28th and staying there, good agreement of mean and ens members (a few hot outliers after 5th Jul) Rain this weekend then mainly dry, perhaps some more in NW England later but more persistent in NW Scotland.

GEFS - 

Oops sorry I didn’t realise this was the Southeast thread.

If you were less parochial and lazy you would see the pattern in the t850 ensemble charts is reflected across the country, not that the weather in only your little corner of the world is of much interest to me, I prefer to look at the bigger picture…dude.

In fact it is even more marked in the SE: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1