Edit to add I should have said unprecedented in June, July 18/19 2022 had over 24hrs of 20°C+ air at 850 hPa here but a less favourable westerly orientation to the approaching air mass with it maybe being less humid then? 

Yes this spell is starting to look like a bust in terms of super high temperatures but the duration is increasing. Seems we will have four or five days of 34-35 instead of two or three of 38-39. Today’s rain seems to have altered the whole dynamic. 

And on the 18Z GFS low pressure doesn’t seem to get much of a look in, even Saturday is well into the 30s. 

An extension at less intensity is welcome from my perspective (and for my free roaming outdoor rabbit).

Further attenuation in the extremes from the 18z Arpege.  I wonder if we'll see a removal/shrinking of the red zone tomorrow if this continues into the morning?

34c, 28c, 28c, 29c, 30c, 30c, 

GFS Op 0z - as FAX, then the weather settles into a more familiar westerly pattern, LP north of Scotland while the Azores high nudges in from the southwest. There's still some rather warm weather for the south until Tue 7th when the LP to the north peps up 1005mb Orkney bringing in northerlies behind it. Back to the westerly pattern later that week.

ECM (to T+240) - like GFS at first, but the ridge from the Azores develops further north and narrowly, lying across N England Wed 1st, with brisk SW-lies for the north of Scotland and easterlies (quite hot?) along the Channel.

AIFS - London, peak maximum Wed 24th at 35C, sliding increasingly quickly over the weekend to about 23C, holding there through to Tue 7th (briefly warmer Sat 4th). Rain today, Sun 28th and Mon 6th. Edinburgh, maximum is 25C today, then a more prolonged but irregular decline to around 15C from Thu 2nd. Small amounts of rain at any time but rather more Fri 26th, Wed 1st and Sat 4th.

GEFS - In the S, a slide from 13C above norm Fri 26th to a degree or two above through to Thu 9th, only a few hot outliers. Small chance of small amounts of rain at any time, perhaps a little more than this in the east later. In the N, brief peak 9C above norm Fri 26th, then back down to norm to the 9th, good ens agreement. Rain likely Sat 27th, smaller amounts from time to time in some runs thereafter.

It did... but it seems the models got this one very wrong indeed. having 5C downward corrections just 48 hours out and totally missing thunderstorm development is pretty poor.

Agree re the thunderstorms in the SE. The storms we had here were well forecast. The best three days have yet to happen, so I won’t pre-empt our actual temps yet

I appreciate forecasting can be difficult but a 5 degree drop to 35 I thought would qualify for an amber warning, not red? Or are they still unsure?

I think is because the UKV 03z still has 39/40c in the West Midlands on it.  

Arpege 06z has been resolute on the temperature downgrades with 33-35 more typical.  Still hot, there will likely be a localised 36/37C as a minimum so the June record should still fall.

If UKV downgrades Thursday to 33-035, then that *ought* to see the red warning downgraded, but they may not due to how late in the day it is & how much the red warning message has been publicised already. 

It's won't be just the absolute max temperature that they will be including for that red. Other things will be considered such as overnight lows and crucially dew points. 

37C with a dew point of 14C will feel drastically cooler then 37C with a dew point of 22C. One being more detrimental to health then the other.

Better for running in.🏃‍♂️

BBC weather only has one day that doesn't reach 25C here in the entire 14 day forecast!

The BBC weather app and website automated forecasts are shockingly bad for here. It’s supposed to have been drizzly and about 21°C here just now based on this morning’s “forecast”. The reality is 28°C and sunny. The temperature reaches 20°C on one day in the entire current forecast, the models say several days and maybe up to 23°C. I think that even the “postcode” forecast has us half in the sea.

Arome 12z - 37C wed in the london area - possible urban heat island distortion given the surrounding home counties are in the region of 32-25C.

Arpege 18z - Wed has 35/36 in north Hampshire/Berkshire territory, Thu pushes 36/37/38 into North Hants/Wilts/Somerset/North Dorset.

UKV 15z - Almost identical to Arpege 18z across Wed & Thu, the West Midland 39/40C furnace has disappeared.

I think I'm going to punt for 38.xC in Hampshire as our new June record.

GFS Op 0z - follows on from FAX and initiates a period from Sun 28th through to Thu 9th with HP lurking to the SW, sometimes closer with ridge to Britain (Tue 30th, Mon 6th), sometimes withdrawing and allowing cooler NW-lies to predominate (Fri 3rd, Wed 8th). On Fri 10th the Atlantic asserts itself and projects LP to the Western Isles 995mb, cool with LP for all.

ECM (to T+240) - similar to GFS but with the centre of HP further west after 28th with a steadier westerly as a result.

AIFS - London, staying at 33-35C to Fri 26th, then sliding  downwards quickly, eventually to 20C on Tue 30th, followed by a slow rise to 25C Wed 8th. Rain at intervals from Sun 28th - Thu 2nd. Edinburgh, peak 23C Thu 25th, dipping on Fri with rain, then a brief recovery before decreasing to 17C Tue 30th with more rain, followed by a rise to 20C Tue 7th but small amounts of rain from time to time. 

GEFS - In the S, temps (both mean and ens agreement) from 13C above norm Fri 26th to norm Mon 29th and staying there. A few sharp peaks of (showery?) rain to 29th then dry in nearly all runs in the far S, some chances of rain further north in England. In Scotland, similar dramatic drop in temp (though the peak heat is only for one day, the 26th) ,  and although mean stays near norm, even a bit below, after the weekend there is less ens agreement; more definite rain on 26th and higher chances of rain later esp in west.

Cooler, fresher conditions after the heat with temps close to average.

A few showers around but a fairly dry picture continues.

Interestingly UKV has reintroduced 39/40C in the Dorset/Wilts/Wants area for tomorrow, but is out on its own there and not being backed up by professional forecasts.

😄

With the way that this is all going just now, that next heatwave will probably end up happening sometime in July regardless of what the models are actually saying about that.

Just a week or so ago, I didn't think that we would get anything else this year which would come even close to matching what happened in May, let alone actually beat that. However, that prediction was probably based on the old climate whereas climate change has now completely changed the goalposts for that and greatly increased the chances of such an event happening.

Because of that, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that event when it no doubt happens in the second half of July, ends up beating this one with the temperature exceeding 40°C somewhere in the UK and beating the record from 2022.

Given all of the other impacts which that event in 2022 had on what was happening in the UK in general, that is a very scary thought.

And when will this one end? Latest GFS doesn't have a proper cooldown (below 26C) until next Thursday now...

Perhaps for you...

For here (not even halfway up the UK), Sunday temps will be around 20-22c, and bobbling around 20-21c through the following week.