I remember this place in 2003 when the 20C 850s made a glancing blow. It felt unprecedented now it seems to happened with increasing regularity 

The heat in France looks historic multiple 40c + days. The merest waft our way and we'll break the June record.  

The operational delivers a 39C as a peak, with 35C on Monday.

What is remarkable is that temps remain high for the majority of the run and we get wafts of more extreme heat. 

Indeed. The spread on the GFS erks a little, but even then above average throughout the run.

Remember, it's only June.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=2&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

V unlikely judging by its 0z run. Scorchio 

We can hope. But, as I say, it's only June. My lovely Devon might escape with just a day or two of heat. But what will July and August bring?

The SE will likely be dust in 8 weeks time, France worse..

Still quite a scatter on the GFS 00z for Birmingham, for example.

Warm or very warm for most.

Blimey. 

Good to see the really hot stuff gets shunted away pronto at 168 though! 😁

GFS Op 0z - As FAX to the weekend; on Sun 21st rise of pressure in the N Sea brings up heat from the south which stagnates over Britain under the influence of a new ridge of HP from the SW, lasting to Sun 28th. This HP loses its influence and for a couple of days from Mon 29th LP from France moves up and encourages some mixing with cooler conditions from the NE before more HP returns 1030mb Ireland Thu 2nd with more heat from the east/southeast.

ECM - as GFS to 28th. The ridge of HP is then present but lies first across England Fri 26th with cool westerlies for Scotland but then moves north delivering more heat to the south on a SE-ly Thu 2nd

Potential uncertainty - weak pressure gradients mean that either heat from France (aways likely to be dominant in S England) or cool Atlantic air (always present around Shetland) could be wafted one way or the other at a day or two's notice. AIFS and GEFS have contrasting outcomes for N & S.

AIFS - London maxima 30C or thereabouts Fri 19th, Tue 23rd and Mon 29th dropping back to 25C in between. A splash or two of rain this week, else dry. Edinburgh, maxima around 18C to Tue 23rd, cooler for a couple of days then 22c from Sat 27th. Significant rain this Friday, bits and pieces after that. 

GEFS - in the S, mean 10C above norm Fri 19th after which mean continues above norm by 7C at first dropping back to 2C above by Thu 2nd - but during those two weeks there is a persistent ens range of some 20C, op and control amongst the warmest. Very little chance of rain. Less extreme further N & W, and for Scotland a somewhat different picture; peak on 19th about 5C above norm, then mean close to norm throughout. The ens spread is there, but more tightly packed than in England with only  few outliers, and there are chances of rain at any time.

That does seem the pattern this morning.  A heat spike Friday 30c ish , another one Sunday/Monday 35c ish. Then perhaps another one a couple of days after.

We are on the northern flank of what is looking like a long term European heat dome.  when the jet allows, southern areas will get a burst of extra heat.  

Unpleasant stuff.  

Slightly coolish days mixed in.

P13 is also an 850mb record-breaker but "only" manages 38C.

The 00Z op run also gives 577-578dam thicknesses on the south coast both this Sunday and the following Sunday, with temps of 32C and 39C respectively.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2026061606/gensfr-3-0-300.png 

It's almost on a par with yesterday's insane control run - 13 straight days of 30C+, peaking at 39C.