FAX - LP 992mb mid-Atlantic moving to 996mb Faeroes Thu 18th with SW-lies bringing fronts across Britain though HP just about hangs on in the far SE. On Fri 19th the wind shifts to a more direct S-ly as pressure drops over Spain and W of Portugal.
GFS Op 0z - Agrees with FAX; then HP from the SW moves to Scotland 1030mb Tue 23rd; warmth spreads to Scotland while there are easterlies through the Channel. Pressure remains fairly high over Scotland for the following week while continental LP nudges the south Coast. The HP withdraws to the SW Wed 1st allowing Atlantic air to feed past Scotland and down the east coast.
ECM - agrees with GFS to start with but differs sharply after Sun 21st when the HP cell settles 1025mb over the N Sea. This brings first a push of heat from the south but then allows LP 1005mb to cross N Scotland Tue 23rd with trough dipping south into England.
AIFS - London, maxima rise steadily to 28C by Fri 19th, then after a dip to 23C resume rising to 33C Fri 26th. Trivial amounts of rain frequent until Mon 22nd, then dry. Edinburgh, maxima soon rising to 18C,then a standstill to Mon 22nd before attaining 24C at the end of that week - back to 15C on Sat 27th. Some rain this week esp FRi 12th-Sun 14th, then dry before more rain Mon 29th.
GEFS - In the south, mean and ens rising to some 8C above norm Fri 19th (less in SW) then a total scramble of ens members to Wed 1st, ranging from just below norm to 12C above - the mean is -er- meaningless. Very small chances of rain at various times in some runs slightly more in east. Warm but no heatwave in the north (progressively declining north of Birmingham to only 2 or 3C above norm in Scotland), then the same scramble of ens members but not quite such a large range. Increased chances of rain the further north you go, not a great quantity but never really dry.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl