One factor which may be of some relevance is the strongly westerly nature of May this year, which is often a month with a considerable number of northeasterly days. An article in the Dec 2008 issue of Weather magazine by Lapworth & McGregor showed an inverse correlation between the number of northeasterly days in May and the following summer CET. If this relationship holds [the other way round] for this year, then this would be an indicator for a higher than average summer CET.

It would be interesting to know if there is physical reason for this correlation. 

One factor which may be of some relevance is the strongly westerly nature of May this year, which is often a month with a considerable number of northeasterly days. An article in the Dec 2008 issue of Weather magazine by Lapworth & McGregor showed an inverse correlation between the number of northeasterly days in May and the following summer CET. If this relationship holds [the other way round] for this year, then this would be an indicator for a higher than average summer CET.

It would be interesting to know if there is physical reason for this correlation. 

 

BTw I am to issure my autumn winter forecast peeps on 23rd July, get those hot rods on, its is going to be a cold one with records broke That is just a teasersr, sorry for spelling.

Well truth beknown, I think it was always going to be a warmer than average summer this year, it is highly likely since we havent had a cool one for ages, saying that John 52 that would mean we should be due a cool one? BTW can't  wait for autumn forecast and more especially winter one.

I think it was always going to be a warmer than average summer this year, it is highly likely since we havent had a cool one for ages, saying that John 52 that would mean we should be due a cool one? 

On the whole I consider each summer to be independent of the previous one, both in terms of temperature and rainfall. So if we have 4 wet ones in a row like 2007-2010, I think it is still 50/50 whether the next one will be drier or wetter than average.

 

I think it was always going to be a warmer than average summer this year, it is highly likely since we havent had a cool one for ages, saying that John 52 that would mean we should be due a cool one? 

On the whole I consider each summer to be independent of the previous one, both in terms of temperature and rainfall. So if we have 4 wet ones in a row like 2007-2010, I think it is still 50/50 whether the next one will be drier or wetter than average.

 

Hmm good point, I think in thise case this summer, it might be very average with hot spells every so often maybe like 2001? I am hoping for a really nice month though Like June 2010 or similar.

So the summer prediction is now on-ine with (in my opinion) a stab in the dark as not even now the models know their head from their arse from one day to the next! Lets face it the Siberian express never turned up after Christmas yet the spring forecast wasnt that bad.

But I respect the effort you guys put into this kind of prediction so all the best and be prepared for a back lash or a pat on the back!!!

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

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If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

I had August relegated from a summer month, so the offical summer months are June, July and September and if possible April since the runs of decent Aprils had increased lately so may promoted as summer month.  Remember April sunshine position are the same as August but only thing that the temps cannot reach 30C easily due to the air still cool from the winter months. 

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

As has been said by countless people, LRF's are not an exact science (far from it).

I've predicted August to be the best month of the three, with June and July a virtual wash-out.....So who knows what summer's going to be like.

Do think that early June (apart from the next few days) looks very unsettled and quite cool.

---

Brian goes for an OK summer, but mixed;

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

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Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

As has been said by countless people, LRF's are not an exact science (far from it).

I've predicted August to be the best month of the three, with June and July a virtual wash-out.....So who knows what summer's going to be like.

Do think that early June (apart from the next few days) looks very unsettled and quite cool.

Heh - I've seen such a wide variation in LRF's for this summer it'll be interesting to see what happens.....but whatever methodology you use it can only really be a best guess

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

As has been said by countless people, LRF's are not an exact science (far from it).

I've predicted August to be the best month of the three, with June and July a virtual wash-out.....So who knows what summer's going to be like.

Do think that early June (apart from the next few days) looks very unsettled and quite cool.

Heh - I've seen such a wide variation in LRF's for this summer it'll be interesting to see what happens.....but whatever methodology you use it can only really be a best guess

so all in all nobody really knows!!!!

 

Well the summer forecast from Daveyland:-

Basic stats wrt CET:-

JUNE - Temp +1C above CET / Sun 140% / Rain 60%

JULY - Temp +1C / Sun 110% / Rain 110%

AUGUST - Temp +0.5C / Sun 90% / Rain 200%

JUNE will be dominated by High Pressure with a particularly warm latter half. Not entirely settled though with the usual chance of heavy & thundery rain leading to a varied pattern of rainfall but quite dry overall

JULY was the most awkward month to call but I expect that it will start warm before cooling under Atlantic influnces by mid-month. This is expected to stall late on to give some very warm conditions in the last week. As usual, rain could be heavy and localised but this will be a rather more unsettled month, hence the higher rainfall average

AUGUST is best forgotten if you want fine weather. The early heat will be blasted away by the Atlantic for much of the rest of the month with the threat of copious rainfall. I think that CET stats will remain on the warmer side simply because of the frequent invasion of TM airmasses and subsequent warm nights. Just the hint that things will calm down late on with some cool air from the north and coldish nights

Overall then, not a bad summer but it will deteriorate

 

If the August forecast comes off, then it'll be the fifth poor August in a row here - I'm startning to wonder if August is even a summer month anymore!

As has been said by countless people, LRF's are not an exact science (far from it).

I've predicted August to be the best month of the three, with June and July a virtual wash-out.....So who knows what summer's going to be like.

Do think that early June (apart from the next few days) looks very unsettled and quite cool.

Heh - I've seen such a wide variation in LRF's for this summer it'll be interesting to see what happens.....but whatever methodology you use it can only really be a best guess

so all in all nobody really knows!!!!

 

Correct

CFS is predicting a very wet summer across much of France and Spain;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif

If this is correct, it will have a big impact on Netweather prediction of a "summer with shades of 76" for two reasons;

1. Without dry, baked ground across the Continent it will limit the potential for heat to build and build and build over the landmass like it did in 2003 for instance.

2.  It suggests pressure will be low across the continent, so any southerlies we do get will likely quickly become unstable with the result being a "three hot days and a thunderstorm" type scenario.

The pressure anomaly looks very weak across N/W and the Atlantic throughout the summer;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

No suggestion of a blocking high within the vicinity.

Added to this we have the models running with a large Greenland High and a trough over N/W Europe well into June and at this stage Netweathers LRF is looking increasingly unlikely, I'm afraid.

---

CFS is predicting a very wet summer across much of France and Spain;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif

If this is correct, it will have a big impact on Netweather prediction of a "summer with shades of 76" for two reasons;

1. Without dry, baked ground across the Continent it will limit the potential for heat to build and build and build over the landmass like it did in 2003 for instance.

2.  It suggests pressure will be low across the continent, so any southerlies we do get will likely quickly become unstable with the result being a "three hot days and a thunderstorm" type scenario.

The pressure anomaly looks very weak across N/W and the Atlantic throughout the summer;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

No suggestion of a blocking high within the vicinity.

Added to this we have the models running with a large Greenland High and a trough over N/W Europe well into June and at this stage Netweathers LRF is looking increasingly unlikely, I'm afraid.

A wet September.

Blocking over Greenland by November I see.

---

I don't think my comments are going to go down too well over Netweather.

---

CFS is predicting a very wet summer across much of France and Spain;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif

If this is correct, it will have a big impact on Netweather prediction of a "summer with shades of 76" for two reasons;

1. Without dry, baked ground across the Continent it will limit the potential for heat to build and build and build over the landmass like it did in 2003 for instance.

2.  It suggests pressure will be low across the continent, so any southerlies we do get will likely quickly become unstable with the result being a "three hot days and a thunderstorm" type scenario.

The pressure anomaly looks very weak across N/W and the Atlantic throughout the summer;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

No suggestion of a blocking high within the vicinity.

Added to this we have the models running with a large Greenland High and a trough over N/W Europe well into June and at this stage Netweathers LRF is looking increasingly unlikely, I'm afraid.

At this early stage it is looking more akin to the Beijing model - in the two years I've been looking at their maps they have been good at highlighting changes in circulation patterns.

Whatever happens in summer I can say that we have had the equivalent of a fantastic Scottish summer over the past ten weeks. Temperatures for the most part in the mid twenties with use of the pool on many days!! This bubble graph from MeteoFrance shows how extraordinary spring 2011 has been.

 

We desperately need the rain that is being modelled by the CFS - ground and irrigation ponds are parched and dry with a critical situation facing farmers at the normal start to summer.

 

CFS is predicting a very wet summer across much of France and Spain;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecMon.gif

If this is correct, it will have a big impact on Netweather prediction of a "summer with shades of 76" for two reasons;

1. Without dry, baked ground across the Continent it will limit the potential for heat to build and build and build over the landmass like it did in 2003 for instance.

2.  It suggests pressure will be low across the continent, so any southerlies we do get will likely quickly become unstable with the result being a "three hot days and a thunderstorm" type scenario.

The pressure anomaly looks very weak across N/W and the Atlantic throughout the summer;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

No suggestion of a blocking high within the vicinity.

Added to this we have the models running with a large Greenland High and a trough over N/W Europe well into June and at this stage Netweathers LRF is looking increasingly unlikely, I'm afraid.

I don't put any stock by these charts, which change all the time. That said, their summer pattern fits with the current GFS FI - although it'll probably be of similar reliability

As Duane says, November = 2010. If only it was reliable

YD, CFS pressure anomalies are very good up to three months out, in my experiance. Temperature and rainfall less so, as we're all aware.

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YD, CFS pressure anomalies are very good up to three months out, in my experiance. Temperature and rainfall less so, as we're all aware.

I think I remember people telling me at the start of December that they showed January would be mild, then, as December progressed, they switched to say January would be very cold. January turned out to be neither mild nor cold