GEM has now shifted to the GFS/GEM evolution, so all three are in agreement.

GFS then builds the high in again for the following weekend, but then migrates it northwards as a big low makes a more conventional approach from the west.

GEM rather unhelpfully spins a secondary low off the main low to give us a repeat soaking.

😂 

*Rogue*

The next week or so has reasonable agreement across GFS and ECM, beyond that things become unclear with various options on the table some of which would bring warmer air to our shores, either in a settled or unsettled pattern. With the way this whole year has gone so far, I think I know which option my money is on! 

Is June set for the bin? It certainly looks like summer buggered off early last July and nowhere in sight for the foreseeable. 

GFS Op - HP slowly moving in from the west displacing the current shallow trough reaching maximum extent Mon 3rd but thereafter less persistent than shown yesterday and retreating W-wards (as ECM suggested yesterday). Pressure then remains fairly high over Britain but with LPs approaching alternately the N (Wed 5th in Norwegian Sea, Mon 10th Faeroes ) and the S (Fri 7th, Cornwall,  Wed 12th, Brittany) before retreating again. Finally a generally lower pressure from Fri 14th.

ECM - resembles GFS at first but the LP on Wed 5th is deeper and closer with brisk NW-lies for Scotland. It then links up with the LP in the S so by Sat 8th there is a trough extending down the whole E Coast.

GEM - matches ECM with a deeper LP on the 5th but then differs from both the above with HP building in strongly from the SW by Sat 8th.

GEFS - temps near norm and mainly dry (except some rain in the S at first) until Wed 5th with good agreement of ens members. Then an immediate spread of outcomes balanced between 6C above and below norm in the S but agreement on a rather cool period in the north for 4 or 5 days. Everywhere except the SW has an increasing number of runs with some rain after the 5th. 

I'm going for a poor summer this year. After some of the incredible hot spells in summers this 4 or 5 years a bad summer must be on the cards. There doesn't seem like any good spells on the cards this next 3 weeks.  I'd be surprised if there weren't any decent spells at all though.   🙂 

Whether it's dry and sunny or cloudy and wet, I'd say there is a strong chance of CETs being above the 81-10 mean. 

Cool? i mean this week has been a little unsettled but 4/7 days have reached at least 20C, and only one failed to reach 18C. For late May that's at least average perhaps a little above! 

Then some pics of us paddleboarding on Ullswater in early Sept and me in shorts/t-shirt.

I think we're due a decent summer - and I'm basing this on nothing but a theory that this spring has been unusually unsettled throughout, stemming from some similarly unusual synoptics, and so I've a hunch we'll get more settled weather through the summer, especially in July & August.

METO will say no to you and issue you well above average nonsense as they rely too much on night temps to cheat and show off UK is warming up well among other countries when in reality is not true for day time, sun hours and wetness.   With the up coming settled spell expectijng temps to be in the 20-22C range as sun now at near highest point.

About 13c here today and it doesn't feel anyway cool at all. Would love if it stayed at these temps all Summer. 

How did I know that the 'Like' would be from Retron 😁

Are you talking about the decade or the expected temps in Fahrenheit?

😊

I stand firm in that this June is not going to be ‘flaming’ in the slightest. 

Which models go out over a month, let alone with any accuracy?

Not a fan of double layers no matter the season or temp. Today was very comfortable in a teeshirt. Not cold, not warm. Stiff enough breeze to prevent the air from becoming stagnant. 

It's 2:30am and its still just about warmer than that. It would make for an awful day time high at this time of year... unless you're retron.

currently the pattern looks locked in for at least a fortnight as others have said, most likely due to HLB and absence our old friend the Azores High.