The Weather Outlook

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Zubzero
26 June 2024 12:41:37

Yes maybe the famous NW/SE split. So ok ish here but I'm looking for Heatwaves. On a entirely different noteWhy has TWO gone weirdly black and odd is it deliberate? Anyone else got this?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It's defaulted to dark mode after forum upgrade. Click on the three lines opposite TWO at the top right to change. 

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2024 18:28:10
There are just some hints on both the GEFS and GEM ensembles of something warmer from about the 6th July. Very very early days though. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
johncs2016
26 June 2024 18:35:02

There are just some hints on both the GEFS and GEM ensembles of something warmer from about the 6th July. Very very early days though. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That is within the weekend after the upcoming UK General Election which is also round about the time when I will be expecting to travel down to Hawick to visit my family, so I will certainly be more than happy if we can get some decent weather then.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

White Meadows
26 June 2024 23:11:19

It's defaulted to dark mode after forum upgrade. Click on the three lines opposite TWO at the top right to change. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Nope, that doesn’t work either. 

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 06:04:56
Terrible output continues.  There is so much heat in Europe but UK managing to avoid it with quite extreme low pressures for July plowing in. Very disappointing 

Hints still in the ensembles of a warmer 2nd week of July. But long way out.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 06:45:44
WX temp charts stuck at 22nd June; TWO not the only site with problems.

GFS Op - Quite a deep LP currently crossing Scotland and moving N/NE-wards, not affecting S England very much. By Sun 30th HP is not too far to the SW, with cooler W/NW-ly winds for Britain; 'useable' weather in the S but unsettled in the far N for a week. The next LP arrives off Cape Wrath 990mb Sat 6th and meanders around, filling and moving S to the Channel  1000mb by Thu 11th. Re-load of HP from the SW for Sat 13th.

/

ECM - HP affecting more of Britain for the beginning of next week, but followed by a more comprehensive decline later; from Thu 4th the area of HP is well south, in Biscay, and a broad area of LP is filling all the area between Iceland and Scotland

/

GEM - as GFS but throws in another LP for N Scotland 985mb Thu 4th moving with the W-ly flow.

/

GEFS - temps up and down, not too far from norm for the next two weeks, though both op & control suggest cooler periods for the S Wed 3rd & Sun 7th, Scotland remaining on the cool side between these dates. Rain increasing in frequency and amount after Mon 1st though not dramatically so (a few ens members have big falls in the SW around the 7th).


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 07:38:26
The ECM 46 dayer has unsettled conditions all the way  for 6 weeks now. This is actually good news because it's a terrible model and the opposite is likely. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 08:05:49
High pressure sitting over the Baltic states appears to be the problem for UK heat lovers according to the GFS Ops. Don't have enough time today to look in more detail but this is effectively blocking the progress of Atlantic lows while not being close enough to the UK to deflect them further north. Consequently they arrive in the UK and float around for days on end. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 08:20:11
Yes hard to find much optimism for July. The first 2 weeks look low pressure dominated.  The only crumb I can see is some ensembles stall LPs to our west and this pumps up some heat especially to the SE. So maybe quite warm here.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 10:25:37

Yes hard to find much optimism for July. The first 2 weeks look low pressure dominated.  The only crumb I can see is some ensembles stall LPs to our west and this pumps up some heat especially to the SE. So maybe quite warm here.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Backing this up, the AIFS (AI ECM) latest run has a stalling LP to our west and the South gets very warm. Not perfect by any means but atm it's the best option.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=264&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2024 11:17:10
GFS 06z Op shows warmer upper air over Svalbard than most of the UK for a number of days. Here's an example .....

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=168&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=6&mv=0#mapref 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Rob K
27 June 2024 13:21:11
I'll take P27 from the 6Z GEFS please.

That's an outlier but the mean does steadily recover after the first week of July. Let's not write off the whole month yet.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2024 16:45:55
Better 12s , much less Greenland blocking so HP has more influence in the South. Still not great but better. Hopefully a trend we can build on.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
27 June 2024 17:43:44
Overall underwhelming output today if it’s calm and reliable summer warmth you seek. At the moment there’s lots of signals for large low pressure just to our west which will ramp up wind speeds again, making for a blowy and potentially dull start to July. 

Let’s hope a pattern change is in the offing soon. 

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