WX charts keeping freezing weather across Scandinavia and most of Russia for both weeks but in week 2 there is an outflow of colder weather (though not freezing) across Europe north of the Alps including Britain. For spring warmth go to the shores of the Caspian. Rain in week 1 for S Britain, France, Spain and Italy, moving a little further S in week 2 and becoming heavy in most places for the Alps.
GFS Op - current LP becoming centred over Britain and not filling until Monday. New trough reaching N Ireland from the NW 985mb Tue 6th before retreating W-wards and setting up a situation with LP W of Ireland and HP Norway with these two systems rotating clockwise around each other so by Fri 8th HP 1030mb Iceland and LP 995mb Biscay with rather cold E-lies for Britain* persisting to Fri 5th when there is a general rise of pressure over Britain and W Europe.
ECM - similar to GFS; the HP rather more intense and the wind more SE-ly than E-ly
GEFS - mean temp mostly near norm, slightly cooler earlier, slightly warmer later, with ensemble agreement breaking down from Fri 8th (op v. cold Sun 10th, then persisting esp in the N, control v. mild Tue 12th). Rain persistent but randomly distributed throughout, only really heavy in the SW
* 6 weeks too late!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl