GFS Op - current HP chased away by deeper-than-previous LP 985mb Hebrides Thu 27th, returning briefly from the SW Sun 30th until another LP from Iceland 990mb Cairngorm Wed 3rd, this one with a trough reaching S Britain. HP continues to hover out to the SW with a general W-ly flow until Wed 10th when another LP from the NW reaches Malin 1000mb. 

In summary, HP to the SW of Britain and over S Russia, with a sequence of LPs from Iceland dipping across N Britain on their way to Norway.

ECM - goes into W-ly zonal flow pattern once the first LP is out of the way. The LP on Wed 3rd does not appear and at that date pressure is fairly high over Britain, centred to the SW with a light NW-ly flow. The best of the three major models.

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM with the LP on Wed 3rd present but further N, heading for Orkney and not really affecting England.

GEFS - warm to Thu 27th, mean of ens members dropping back to norm (cool for a few days in the N) and staying there to Wed 10th but on any given day there will be a run or two 5C above or below the mean. Rain at any time, very little in the SW, rather more but not that much in the N.

It looks like being one of those typical "last gasp" heatwaves, whereby this little corner ends up the warmest in the UK. MetO has 29s for Heathrow tomorrow and Wednesday, but "only" 27 for Thursday.

NB, 30 would be 8 degrees above average, the June equivalent of an ice day in winter. And we haven't had one of those for years...

Moomin, get off Darren’s account with your last gasp summer is over antics

As long no one created a front to throw at the HP zone like this phantom warm cloudy spell thanks to the front being thrown inside the HP and clouds spread like cancerous.  

🤣🤣

I'm a changed man Matty..promise  🤣

Good upgrade for the southern UK on that op tonight 

You misunderstood that one! 😉

The "last gasp" bit refers to this heatwave... it's often the case when fresher weather moves in from the west that we see a last-minute surge in temperatures in this corner of England, as the heat gets shoved eastwards and we lose our cooling sea breezes.

While I wish it was summer as a whole's "last gasp", sadly it won't be - we're in for more of this over the next couple of months. Remember folks, down here in Kent, while snow (or even -5C) isn't guaranteed every winter, or even most winters these days, a spell of warmth including 30C+ is a dead cert every summer. And more often than not, more than once!

Model consistency has been really crap recently. 

ECM - similar to GFS but LP Thu 4th is closer 995mb Aberdeen (yesterday this was shown further N)

GEM - more emphasis on LP; the HP responsible for the zonal flow in GFS is further SW in this model and weather is less settled everywhere, not just the N. In particular there is a twin centre LP on election day 990mb Cornwall and 995mb N Ireland.

GFS - cooling down later this week and mean temp then staying near norm (slightly below in N; op and control amongst the coolest everywhere) with variation between ens members becoming steadily more significant from Wed 3rd. Very little rain in S (one or two runs with large amounts later on), small amounts quite frequently in N

A lot of LP around with rather cool weather in the models, which however is not reflected in GEFS

Not much difference after this phantom cloudy fest spell ends, might end up better amount of sunny days in early July when I get back.  Leaving today and still lot of infill clouds formed so early this morning so will see blue skies in the air.  

Between now and Monday 1st the coolest day forcasted on the met for here is 21C and that's this Friday... Every other day is warmer! Each looks also to be dry.

Tbf the South and EA might be OK upto the 1st. 

First week of July look less good but ensembles are not as bad as the Ops atm. 

After looking at the GFS especially, the Met Office web forecast for MBY surprised me. Mostly dry (chance of PPN maxing out at 15%) and temps 17-19c out to the 1st. 

Not great.... but great when compared to what I was expecting from the last few GFS runs

GFS Op - LP 990mb running across Scotland tomorrow with trough reaching to the S drifting to the N while HP tentatively approaches from the SW but only close enough to Britain to provide dry-ish(?) NW-lies. Shallow LPs cross first Scotland 1000mb Fri 5th and England 1005mb Tue 9th before HP re-establishes from the SW Fri 12th.

ECM - like GFS at first but the LP Fri 5th arrives a day earlier and persists off NW Scotland at least until Sat 6th instead of moving on.

GEM - makes even more of next week's LP as it crosses Britain to settle 990mb Yorkshire coast Sat 6th.

GEFS - contrasts with the WX charts. Becoming cool in the next few days and staying on the cool side to Fri 5th with fair agreement but more prolonged in Scotland, then mean temp back to norm with less agreement. Small amounts of rain from the beginning of July (some earlier in the NW), not a lot but still rather more than shown yesterday. 

Pessimistic, I think, for a viewpoint from Essex. Certainly no heatwave, but it looks bright and mostly dry for England until the end of that first week, though I wouldn't book a holiday in n Scotland.

Yes maybe the famous NW/SE split. So ok ish here but I'm looking for Heatwaves. 

On a entirely different note

Why has TWO gone weirdly black and odd is it deliberate? Anyone else got this?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24028-Forum-upgraded-26th-June-2024 

See Daily Thread in Forum Arms EDIT - crossed ... er ... in post with Brian's above.

Yes as the GFS had been consistently showing for several days now, I don't check the other models but sounds like they have come in line now. Looks poor for the majority and certainly no sign of a heatwave for at least the first 10 days of July.