The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2024 11:34:44

have to agree with Jires, no need for unnecessary heatwave ‘advisories’ with the current outlook. Daft nanny state hyping up the media with a standard spell of Uk summer warmth. 

It will sure feel a lot more pleasant than the cool conditions experienced all year especially on the coasts. 

June CET still running at -1.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It is NOT a heatwave advisory and if you’re not involved with the health and care sector it isn’t relevant.  However, It is important to some, including our daughter, who acquired a brain injury 4 years ago and is in residential care.  She lost the ability to regulate her own body temperature, so staff will be monitoring her more closely. 

So sorry to have taken this off topic, it wasn’t intended, but there are valid reasons for these alerts.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

+5
Retron
22 June 2024 16:26:00
The new MetO raw has upgraded the heat: even in Heathrow, 29C counts as "hot" at this time of year (the average is just under 23 right now).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2024-06-26 

A good chance of the first 30 of the year on Wednesday, I'd suggest, with an outside chance of seeing one on Tuesday and Thursday too.

Leysdown, north Kent
Taylor1740
22 June 2024 16:45:06
Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
cultman1
22 June 2024 16:46:57
We shall see not convinced 
Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2024 16:58:18

The new MetO raw has upgraded the heat: even in Heathrow, 29C counts as "hot" at this time of year (the average is just under 23 right now).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2024-06-26 

A good chance of the first 30 of the year on Wednesday, I'd suggest, with an outside chance of seeing one on Tuesday and Thursday too.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Met Office has the magic 30c for Greater London on Wednesday now. Im not completely convinced yet will be touch and go.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07&ved=2ahUKEwjikLf01u-GAxUVU0EAHcHHC0cQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1U-H-Fso8ikSH6_LYwqh12 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
bledur
22 June 2024 18:45:22

Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

 Seeing as that is 10 days away and the modelling for next week has been all over the place i would not take any heed of signals for future weather. Met Office are all over the shop.🤨

+1
White Meadows
23 June 2024 05:28:08

The alerts are not for the media they are for health and social care organisations and there is no “hyping” in the case of a yellow alert 

Increased use of healthcare services by the vulnerable population.

Increase in risk of mortality amongst vulnerable individuals and increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm.”

For most people, or those that like the warmth, the weather in current output will be very welcome.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I guess, turn the heating down, or even off might do it.

Temps back to normal finally after a below average June so far still running at -1.5 below normal. A few favoured spots topping the high 20’s this week (Heathrow runway 2 perhaps) but temps fall off a cliff next weekend with the ever familiar rain spikes creeping back in. 

 

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 06:45:28

“met4cast” on Twitter saying that strengthening easterly trade winds could be a bad sign for settled weather (negative AAM)

https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1804452585530614229?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I cant post the chart but latest CFS AAM chart( 22nd June) looks OK. Rising to neutral then positive for early July. 

Edit, here you go , posted by Northern Illinois University on Google 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/&ved=2ahUKEwi72uCpkPGGAxX3XkEAHSiFDkYQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2U7YJ-9hFypzGYGu2J6rIv 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 06:57:57
Ecm the best of the bunch this morning.  Nice rebuild of HP after the breakdown.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2024 07:02:07
WX summary charts not loading this morning. Last night they hadn't changed much from the morning's output: WX charts scale back the warmth in Europe in week 2, especially around the Baltic. Britain grades from warm in the south to cool in the north; continental Europe stays generally warm; coastal Norway and Iceland rather cold.

GFS Op - Current HP with foundation of warm air squeezed out on Thu 27th by a link-up between LP Iceland and LP France (BBC this morning showing rain for the NW and for the S Wed into Thu). These two form a trough lying N-S, sometimes over Britain, sometimes down the N Sea and persisting through to Sat 6th between HP a few hundred miles to E and W. Even on the 6th the LP is not far away, but HP gets closer to the SW and starts to bring in NW-lies.

ECM - emphasises (as previously) the Icelandic end of the trough on Thu 27th (985mb Rockall) but restores HP quickly to cover Britain by Sun 30th before moving to a more zonal W-ly set-up on Wed 3rd (yesterday's ECM kept the trough in place so a significant upgrade even if it adds to an air of uncertainty)

GEM - also has the trough from Thu 27th, but like ECM by Mon 1st HP from the W has pushed the trough E-wards, at the expense of bringing in cool W/NW winds, but looking dry and settled.

GEFS - warm to about Thu 27th, then cool to Wed 3rd, finally back to norm, moderately good agreement of ensemble members throughout. Rain starts Wed 26th/Thu 27th and persists though amounts tend to decline with time, and are never enormous except for one or two runs in the SW,  .

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+4
Rob K
23 June 2024 08:10:15

Looks to be quite a consistent signal now for a cool westerly to setup as we go into July.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
23 June 2024 08:24:34
Been looking at the AIFS model recently.  The AI version of the ECM. It's verification stats hold up very well marginally better in fact compared to the ECM especially in the 168h-240h range. It's been forecasting HP nudging in to the UK at the beginning of July for a while now. Not perfect but not bad especially for the South.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
23 June 2024 09:36:57

I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

That’s pretty much been the theme since this started to show. Never been more than a few days. Nothing still to suggest that’ll change. Potentially a rebuild of high pressure but way too far out to place any faith in 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Chunky Pea
23 June 2024 09:41:37
Roll on autumn. Sick of this eternal daylight. It's everywhere. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

+1
Taylor1740
23 June 2024 09:45:03

I’m not seeing much of a consistent signal for anything beyond a warm few days until Thursday with a cooler and more unsettled weekend. That could be anything from a change of regime to a temporary blip before high pressure builds in again. 

It does look as if should HP rebuild it is more likely to be further west which will mean a somewhat cooler setup but it could still be very pleasant. The dire charts with a trough getting stuck over the UK from the second half of this week seem to have disappeared for now, anyway. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The GEFS are pretty confident at least on a cooler spell in early July with some rain around. As always it could all change but at this stage a heatwave in the first 10 days or so of July is looking unlikely.

​​​​

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Jiries
23 June 2024 09:54:51

That’s pretty much been the theme since this started to show. Never been more than a few days. Nothing still to suggest that’ll change. Potentially a rebuild of high pressure but way too far out to place any faith in 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.

Matty H
23 June 2024 11:04:06

This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Yep, complete shambles of a forecast for today so far for many. Not all. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

picturesareme
23 June 2024 11:09:26

This phantom so called warm spell seem to be cloudy one as today from reading other reports extensive band of unforecast clouds rolled in and where it came from?  Today 25C seem unlikely without full sun.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The cloud was forecasted by the met office and its already 22C down here on the coast despite the clouds so 25C is still very much on the cards for somewhere down south easily.

moomin75
23 June 2024 16:55:33
UKMO, ICON and GEM all look fine for the end of the week and the weekend next week.

GFS on the other hand looks distinctly Autumnal.

Let's hope the Euros and the Canadian model have this right. 

 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Bertwhistle
23 June 2024 16:56:39
12z arpege for the south gives some real, but short-lived heat, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday with a 19 minimum and 30 maximum for Wednesday locally. Let's see.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Brian Gaze
23 June 2024 17:01:39
UKM looks interesting for warm / hot weather. 

UserPostedImage

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
23 June 2024 17:42:50
Looks like an excellent chance of 30 on both Wednesday and Thursday now... unfortunately for me, the latter is more likely here, according to the new MetO output!

It has 29C now as the high for Thursday (compared to 28 for Heathrow), but Heathrow still has 29C for Wednesday... when it's "just" 25C here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-06-23&forecastChoice=weather 

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
23 June 2024 18:44:59

Looks like an excellent chance of 30 on both Wednesday and Thursday now... unfortunately for me, the latter is more likely here, according to the new MetO output!

It has 29C now as the high for Thursday (compared to 28 for Heathrow), but Heathrow still has 29C for Wednesday... when it's "just" 25C here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2024-06-23&forecastChoice=weather 

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The day will come (likely when we are all rotting in the grave) when future members of this forum will be talking of our present summers the way we talk now of winters in the 80s. In that it just so common now to reach temps and dewpoints that would only occur once or twice in late 20th century summers. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
23 June 2024 19:12:56
GFS is still being the party pooper which much cooler and less settled conditions than the other main models. 12Z op run was again at the lower end of the ensembles from much of the time.

ARPEGE is giving a 31C right over my location on Wednesday.

I'm sure I saw a 32C for London on the UKV earlier but that has disappeared now.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

picturesareme
23 June 2024 19:34:09

It's a reminder that it's relatively easy to get temperatures of 7C above average (as 29 would be here), but far, far harder to get 7C below!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

But the flip side is un winter its easier to get 7C below average than 7C above.

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