Much better than the ECM though, has no HLB so HP can build in from the south. 

Edit. HLB turns up and it goes all Day After Tomorrow. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Thing is, to me 25C is hot, or at least the start of 'hot'. If hot is 6C above average and my summer average max would be 19/20C so that figures. Depends where you are. In London 25C is only a couple of degrees above average so would probably not be viewed in the same way. Still, this is diverging away from the models now so mods could move this to a more appropriate thread if discussion continues?

GEM is OK but the latest GFS keeps low pressure in charge for the duration. JMA is even worse (talking of cannon fodder models).

I think we have been led up the garden path again, as it looks like a blink-and-you'll-miss-it waft of warmth.

Although having looked at the GEFS posted above, the operational run is one of the worst of the bunch for warm and settled weather.

Well the 12s continue the theme of extending the warm spell next week.  GEM in particular.  

Indeed, looking a lot better on the 12z's.

Lovely.

They're in place for all the English regions with the exception of the NE: https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/weather-health-alerts/heat  

Pointless. Not communicated through any mainstream media. Means absolutely nothing to the vast majority of the UK population, and I’m not even suggesting it should be communicated widely

ticks a box

At 27C is not a heatwave as it just warm and tad above average for end of June 23C for London.  Over reacting and only should put warnings for temperature over 30C.  This coming warm spell is bog standard and normal for summer season.

No significant breakdown being shown now as well. Good news for Summer fans. 🤞it holds.

Let hope the models knowing we are in summer season to keep churning out summery charts right to Sept.  Need warm to very warm July first half as I am off work to do painting conservatory walls so need to open door and windows while warm outside.  Greenland don’t deserve having all out HP all the time and much needed LP most times to keep ice sheet minimise melting.

Absolutely, and that is why they are not publicised, at this level at least, in the same manner as severe weather warnings.

Its nice to see the output continue to look more summery albeit not totally settled.

My niece is a nurse practitioner, and one of my friend’s partner is a GP. I’ve messaged my mate and my niece and neither get this communicated or were even aware of it, so I’m not sure it’s overly relevant at all to the health care sector. Maybe more so for social care

Anyway, that’s off topic. What isn’t off topic is the charts look ok again this morning. Being picky they are still nowhere near as high-dominated or hot and humid as I would like, but this will do for starters

This is true, as I work directly in health and social care, you will see the old and very young people being admitted into A&E/hospital more frequently during a spell of warmer weather. Often dehydrated and with sunburn. 

It is a reminder to community health care workers and neighbours to make sure the elderly are well hydrated and are ok between social care visits. You will often see elderly with their heating on full even when temps outside are above 25 degrees. Might seem daft but elerdly who cannot move around the house independently still feel cold regardless how warm it is outside.

What we see as a period of summery weather, can be a killer for some. Remember to check your on your elderly neighbours, even when we do not think the weather is extreme for us 😊 

GFS Op - HP in from the west to start the week, but LP from France links up with a deeper one near Iceland so all of Britain is under a broad trough by Fri 28th. HP, again from the SW, re-establishes for next weekend, but sinks S-wards by Wed 3rd to usher in a spell of zonal weather with W-ly winds, later NW-ly, fine for S Britain. less settled in the N.

ECM - the trough on Fri 28th is more concentrated in the N (990mb Malin) and then drifts S-wards, filling, so although pressure rises for next weekend, it's more by default and described better as shallow LP.

GEM - generates the deep LP as per ECM but a day earlier , but then moves it quickly NE so HP soon back and firmly in control

GEFS - warm until Thu 27th and then temp dropping back to norm with general ens agreement. From Mon 1st mean is slightly above norm but with plenty of variation, in particular op & control going in opposite directions. Not much rain in the S & E but a few runs have big peaks. In the NW, more continual from Thu 27th but relatively small amounts. 

It will sure feel a lot more pleasant than the cool conditions experienced all year especially on the coasts. 

June CET still running at -1.5c

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 

The alerts are not for the media they are for health and social care organisations and there is no “hyping” in the case of a yellow alert simply:

“Description

Minor impacts are probable across the health and social care sector, including:

Increased use of healthcare services by the vulnerable population.

Increase in risk of mortality amongst vulnerable individuals and increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm.”

I suspect they vast majority of health and social care practitioners will also not be aware of the alerts beyond at most “look out for x, y or z” symptoms. It is in the category of damned if you do (accusations of nanny state) and damned if you don’t (“why were the health and social care sectors not more prepared for an increased in heat related issues amongst the most vulnerable?”)

For most people, or those that like the warmth, the weather in current output will be very welcome.

https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1804452585530614229?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA