WX average temp charts still showing a very warm area over the E Baltic, much as it was a week ago, but in the meantime W Europe esp France has become definitely cool. In week 2, all change; cool weather sweeps down over the Baltic and something much warmer moves N across France, even reaching S England. The Scots should keep an eye on Norway, though, bitterly cold for the time of year. Rain in week 1 mainly for Germany, Italy and points east but nowhere in Europe dry except W Iberia. In week 2 the main area moves NE-wards but smaller patches appear for S England, Switzerland and the Balkans.
GFS Op synoptics - current shallow LP over Britain takes its time to move E-wards but is in Poland by Sat 1st with HP 1030mb reaching Ireland from the W; still N/NE-lies for N Sea coasts. This HP stays in much the same place to Mon 10th, extending its influence across Britain from time to time, but then retreats to the NW allowing a rather cold N-ly drift associated with an Arctic LP which had become established over N Norway. Final charts Thu 13th show a small low 1005mb which has developed in this drift running up the Channel.
ECM synoptics - similar to GFS at first but the HP over Ireland weakens and moves west sooner, by Fri 7th, and is then only just holding off any N-ly drift. An LP develops to the SW at that time and there is a suggestion it could move along the Channel much earlier than GFS proposes.
GEFS - generally on the cool side with some rain at first, then a little warmer and drier in the first week of June with moderately good agreement. After this the ens members diverge with mean near norm, op & control both suggesting warmer in the SE but cooler in the N. Rain increasingly probable in the 2nd week of June.
Originally Posted by: DEW