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Chunky Pea
19 September 2023 06:40:48
El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gandalf The White
19 September 2023 06:56:21

Interesting David. Would the Tonga volcano that put huge amounts of water into the atmosphere/stratosphere have had any impact on the widespread large rainfall events we've seen globally this year? From a layman's angle what goes up has to come down.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/912 
 

Originally Posted by: NMA 



That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NMA
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19 September 2023 11:11:03

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
lanky
19 September 2023 13:11:07

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The Tonga Volcano article reports up to 146*10^12 (Teragrams) of water being ejected into the Stratosphere

The Greek floods the other day show (by my reckoning on the maps published) an average of 200mm of rain falling over an area of about 100km x 100km with some areas inside this square totalling about 700mm but mostly in the range 100-200mm

Using my trusty fag packet the Tonga volcano ejection comes to 0.146Gt (10^9 tons) of water whilst just the Greek flood total on its own comes to around 2 Gt rain

My conclusion is on that basis the Tonga Volcano was not much if any of a contribution to the recent floods

 
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
ozone_aurora
19 September 2023 14:02:17

El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


What is BOM?🤫
Retron
19 September 2023 14:09:28

What is BOM?🤫

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology?
Leysdown, north Kent
Jiries
19 September 2023 17:05:15

That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick

Originally Posted by: NMA 



Like it happened in NZ, Libya, Death Valley, Greece with Cyprus avoided it but got frequent storms here and there.  Is also any water in the atmosphere would had been frozen and then fall back as ice pellets?
picturesareme
20 September 2023 12:27:54
The excess water injected into the stratosphere will increase warming, and not how much rain falls from an event on the other side of the world. 

I read the warming from event will primarily be local to the Pacific - I assume that this would just increase the chance & intensity of El nino. 
picturesareme
20 September 2023 16:45:45
https://www.instagram.com/p/CxaHP3iAUjt/?igshid=NzZhOTFlYzFmZQ== 


Unusual deep early snow yesterday in Lapland 
Gavin D
27 September 2023 15:50:09
Perth, Western Australia, has had its hottest September day on record with a high of 34.3c beating the previous record of 34.2 in 2014
johncs2016
27 September 2023 16:00:08

Perth, Western Australia, has had its hottest September day on record with a high of 34.3c beating the previous record of 34.2 in 2014

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



... and this is only the early part of their spring as well.

I'd therefore hate to imagine what it will be like there in three or four months' time when they get into the height of their summer.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
tierradelfuego
27 September 2023 16:23:40
Parts of Sydney are forecast 36c on the 1st and 38c on the 3rd, it is looking like a crazy hot summer over there, that's for sure.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
DEW
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28 September 2023 06:29:51
https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2023/09/18/heat-wave-winter-temperatures/ 

Still winter but temps forecast to reach 45C this weekend - and further down an illuminating graph of temps by decades.

FWIW the page won't let you cut and paste content, but only the link
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
28 September 2023 11:28:46

https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2023/09/18/heat-wave-winter-temperatures/ 

Still winter but temps forecast to reach 45C this weekend - and further down an illuminating graph of temps by decades.

FWIW the page won't let you cut and paste content, but only the link

Originally Posted by: DEW 



A somewhat misleading article seeing how large parts of Brasil don't experience winter.  

September & October tend to be the warmest months before the rains return - much like in places like India where the hottest temperatures are in the spring. 
johncs2016
28 September 2023 12:04:28

A somewhat misleading article seeing how large parts of Brasil don't experience winter.  

September & October tend to be the warmest months before the rains return - much like in places like India where the hottest temperatures are in the spring. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



True

The seasons as we know them (it's just a shame that our weather all too often, refuses to comply with that) are caused by the fact that the Earth's axis is tilted at an angle of roughly 23.5° to the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun in combination with the fact that the Earth's axis always points in the same direction, regardless of where we are in our orbit around the Sun.

Most of you will probably know that already and may not necessarily be interested in having that pointed out again here, but I'm merely posting this for anyone out there who might be interested in learning more about how the seasons work.

Anyway, we will be on one particular side of the Sun in June (around the time of the summer solstice for example). At that time, the tilt of the Earth's axis results in the North Pole being tilted towards the Sun with the South Pole being tilted away from the Sun.

The result of this is that we experience summer at that time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere with the Southern Hemisphere experiencing its winter at that time.

Six months later in December, we will then be on the other side of the Sun which means that it is now the South Pole which is tilted towards the Sun with the North Pole being tilted away from the Sun. The end result of this is that we will experience our winter in the Northern Hemisphere whilst the Southern Hemisphere experiences its summer.

Close to the the Equator though, there is very little effect from the Earth's tilt on its axis other than to cause the midday Sun to be high in the sky in the north in June, and high in the sky in the south in December. These means that Equatorial countries don't experience winter or summer in the way that other locations do which are further away from the Equator.

This means that instead of experiencing hot or cold seasons, Equatorial countries are more likely to just experience wet or dry seasons. Brazil lies mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, but there is a small part of it which lies in the Northern Hemisphere.

Because of that, Brazil can be classed as an Equatorial country and so, seasons such as "winter" don't really exist there in the way that they do here because it is a country which is more likely to experience wet or cold seasons rather than hot or cold seasons (that is, unless you are in the extreme south of Brazil which is relatively far away from the Equator and therefore, come relatively close to experiencing the normal Southern Hemisphere seasons with summer occurring from December to February, and with winter occurring from June to August).
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
DEW
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28 September 2023 15:13:53

A somewhat misleading article seeing how large parts of Brasil don't experience winter.  

September & October tend to be the warmest months before the rains return - much like in places like India where the hottest temperatures are in the spring. 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



The link is from a Brazilian source, and they seem to be excited by it. The text refers mainly to the south i.e. Rio de Janeiro, and the Brazilian media are quoting figures not to say that it's warm but exceptionally warm.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
29 September 2023 01:52:41

The link is from a Brazilian source, and they seem to be excited by it. The text refers mainly to the south i.e. Rio de Janeiro, and the Brazilian media are quoting figures not to say that it's warm but exceptionally warm.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Sao Paulo & Rio are still in the tropics - both within the tropic of Capricorn. 

Seven out of the twelve months in Rio have had all time monthly highs in the 40's. For example 42.8C in October... or 43.8C in December 
​​
I forgot to say. What is know about the source? Are they the Brazilian equivalent of our Sun, Daily Mail, Telegraph, etc
DEW
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29 September 2023 06:50:52
More flooding in Greece
https://watchers.news/2023/09/28/storm-elias-causes-second-wave-of-severe-flooding-in-central-greece/ 
 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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29 September 2023 16:14:17
... and in New York

Torrential rain causes havoc in New York City
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-66963276 

One to three inches (2-7cm) of rain has already fallen on the region, and heavy rain will continue throughout the evening. An additional average of three to seven inches (7-17cm) are forecast to fall today
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
polarwind
30 September 2023 12:31:48
I would think most here, take note of the clouds that are in sight when observed.
In the past, say 10 years ago and since, I posted about certain types of clouds being less common than they were in the 60' and 70's.
Over the last few months I've 'perceived' (I haven't made records for sixty years or so) some increase in the amount of Cirrostratus, Cirrocumulus, Altostratus and Stratus - can anyone confirm what I perceive? And if so, what might be the reason?

 
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Dave,Derby
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