If anything, el Nino adds a small jolt to the north Atlantic jet stream during late autumn and winter, though I do stress small. It is a curious coincidence though that slower moving patterns, bringing more longer lasting high pressure zones etc over the greater north Atlantic region have been dominant since the la Nina came into play, and this current stagnant high could be a lagged legacy of that 

The data is now official: 3 years’ worth of rain fell within two days. Scientists on Greek TV discussing the possibility of the formation of new, permanent lakes in the area. It is a new planet

https://watchers.news/2023/09/09/unprecedented-rainfall-causes-catastrophic-flooding-in-greece-leaving-massive-damage-and-at-least-10-dead/ 

One other note is that this year there has been bumper nut harvests from their hazelnuts and walnuts and all their fruit trees too. But a noticeable lack of so many wasps, in comparison to the last five years, they had a longer and colder winter earlier and a good amount of snow which may (or not) have been a contributing factor.

Interesting David. Would the Tonga volcano that put huge amounts of water into the atmosphere/stratosphere have had any impact on the widespread large rainfall events we've seen globally this year? From a layman's angle what goes up has to come down.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/912 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66773814 

 Not only but also -  see -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-66725124    

 And so these events continue!

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 

Nick

The Tonga Volcano article reports up to 146*10^12 (Teragrams) of water being ejected into the Stratosphere

The Greek floods the other day show (by my reckoning on the maps published) an average of 200mm of rain falling over an area of about 100km x 100km with some areas inside this square totalling about 700mm but mostly in the range 100-200mm

Using my trusty fag packet the Tonga volcano ejection comes to 0.146Gt (10^9 tons) of water whilst just the Greek flood total on its own comes to around 2 Gt rain

My conclusion is on that basis the Tonga Volcano was not much if any of a contribution to the recent floods

Like it happened in NZ, Libya, Death Valley, Greece with Cyprus avoided it but got frequent storms here and there.  Is also any water in the atmosphere would had been frozen and then fall back as ice pellets?

I read the warming from event will primarily be local to the Pacific - I assume that this would just increase the chance & intensity of El nino. 

Unusual deep early snow yesterday in Lapland 

... and this is only the early part of their spring as well.

I'd therefore hate to imagine what it will be like there in three or four months' time when they get into the height of their summer.

Still winter but temps forecast to reach 45C this weekend - and further down an illuminating graph of temps by decades.

FWIW the page won't let you cut and paste content, but only the link

A somewhat misleading article seeing how large parts of Brasil don't experience winter.  

September & October tend to be the warmest months before the rains return - much like in places like India where the hottest temperatures are in the spring. 

True

The seasons as we know them (it's just a shame that our weather all too often, refuses to comply with that) are caused by the fact that the Earth's axis is tilted at an angle of roughly 23.5° to the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun in combination with the fact that the Earth's axis always points in the same direction, regardless of where we are in our orbit around the Sun.

Most of you will probably know that already and may not necessarily be interested in having that pointed out again here, but I'm merely posting this for anyone out there who might be interested in learning more about how the seasons work.

Anyway, we will be on one particular side of the Sun in June (around the time of the summer solstice for example). At that time, the tilt of the Earth's axis results in the North Pole being tilted towards the Sun with the South Pole being tilted away from the Sun.

The result of this is that we experience summer at that time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere with the Southern Hemisphere experiencing its winter at that time.

Six months later in December, we will then be on the other side of the Sun which means that it is now the South Pole which is tilted towards the Sun with the North Pole being tilted away from the Sun. The end result of this is that we will experience our winter in the Northern Hemisphere whilst the Southern Hemisphere experiences its summer.

Close to the the Equator though, there is very little effect from the Earth's tilt on its axis other than to cause the midday Sun to be high in the sky in the north in June, and high in the sky in the south in December. These means that Equatorial countries don't experience winter or summer in the way that other locations do which are further away from the Equator.

This means that instead of experiencing hot or cold seasons, Equatorial countries are more likely to just experience wet or dry seasons. Brazil lies mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, but there is a small part of it which lies in the Northern Hemisphere.

Because of that, Brazil can be classed as an Equatorial country and so, seasons such as "winter" don't really exist there in the way that they do here because it is a country which is more likely to experience wet or cold seasons rather than hot or cold seasons (that is, unless you are in the extreme south of Brazil which is relatively far away from the Equator and therefore, come relatively close to experiencing the normal Southern Hemisphere seasons with summer occurring from December to February, and with winter occurring from June to August).

The link is from a Brazilian source, and they seem to be excited by it. The text refers mainly to the south i.e. Rio de Janeiro, and the Brazilian media are quoting figures not to say that it's warm but exceptionally warm.

Sao Paulo & Rio are still in the tropics - both within the tropic of Capricorn. 

Seven out of the twelve months in Rio have had all time monthly highs in the 40's. For example 42.8C in October... or 43.8C in December 

​​

I forgot to say. What is know about the source? Are they the Brazilian equivalent of our Sun, Daily Mail, Telegraph, etc

https://watchers.news/2023/09/28/storm-elias-causes-second-wave-of-severe-flooding-in-central-greece/ 

Torrential rain causes havoc in New York City

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-66963276 

One to three inches (2-7cm) of rain has already fallen on the region, and heavy rain will continue throughout the evening. An additional average of three to seven inches (7-17cm) are forecast to fall today

In the past, say 10 years ago and since, I posted about certain types of clouds being less common than they were in the 60' and 70's.

Over the last few months I've 'perceived' (I haven't made records for sixty years or so) some increase in the amount of Cirrostratus, Cirrocumulus, Altostratus and Stratus - can anyone confirm what I perceive? And if so, what might be the reason?

Manu other areas of the city received 4-5 inches ore more

https://abc7ny.com/how-much-rain-flash-flooding-new-york-nyc/13843559/