Temp charts from WX show more heat than yesterday. Still a bit cool in week 1 close to the N Sea and in E Europe from Romania up to W Russia, but both areas becoming warm in week 2 and really hot in France and S England (just a small cold pool in the Balkans). Very dry from N Sea to Baltic in both weeks, and the belt of rain in S Europe becoming confined to the Balkans; Britain itself with some rain between dry sea areas on either side - convective situation?

GFS Op - HP over Scandinavia bringing in S/SE-lies and warmth for Britain to Wed 14th; then the HP drifts W-wards forming a N-S ridge over Britain until Sun 18th. This weakens for a few days as LP from Atlantic nears Ireland but resumes before collapsing in favour of slack LP imported from France Sun 25th. Further afield, throughout the period there is a tendency for pressure to be fairly high over the Baltic, fairly low for W and SE Europe, and the only strong feature an LP 990mb S Russia drifting N-wards.

ECM - similar to GFS until Sun 18th when the HP remains strong and drifts W-wards to lie W of Scotland and a weaker Atlantic LP stays off NW Spain rather than Ireland.

GEFS - very warm until about Wed 14th then continuing a degree or two above norm through to Mon 26th with good ens agreement (minor exceptions of an uptick in op & control at the very end and in the N one or two extremely cold outliers near Wed 21st). Small amounts of rain to 14th, then dry to Mon 19th when small amounts of rain appear in an increasing number of ens members, (but larger amounts more continuously in far N & W). 
 

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If you're a fan of warm weather then the output is looking good. Interestingly, the BBC have tweeted that if 30c is reached today it would be the earliest that's been achieved for a decade.

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If you a fan of warm weather then the output is looking good. Interestingly, the BBC have tweeted that if 30c is reached today it would be the earliest that's been achieved for a decade.

Yes I saw that since 2012 which was a very unremarkable Summer in general. 

Already over 25c in places so a good chance today. 
 

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Yes I saw that since 2012 which was a very unremarkable Summer in general. 

Already over 25c in places so a good chance today. 
 

Interestingly that 30 (30.9°C) was in May and in Scotland.

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UKV is suggesting the possibility that temps will reach 30C for 5 consecutive days. I imagine that would be an unusual event during the first half of June. 

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If you're a fan of warm weather then the output is looking good. Interestingly, the BBC have tweeted that if 30c is reached today it would be the earliest that's been achieved for a decade.

Heathrow and Northolt have now hit 30c today.

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Heathrow and Northolt have now hit 30c today.

Looking like 32c is possible later. Another win for the UKV model.
 

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Looking like 32c is possible later. Another win for the UKV model.
 

UKV must be right because they took account the ground had been very dry so that help to shoot the temps to 32C?  If so that would be amazing after London suffered very cool to cold weeks recently.  Here 27C and app keep insisting cloudy but in reality warm and sunny, expecting 28C today.

UKV must be right because they took account the ground had been very dry so that help to shoot the temps to 32C?  If so that would be amazing after London suffered very cool to cold weeks recently.  Here 28C and app keep insisting cloudy but in reality warm and sunny, expecting 29C or perhaps 30C if possible.

UKV must be right because they took account the ground had been very dry so that help to shoot the temps to 32C?  If so that would be amazing after London suffered very cool to cold weeks recently.  Here 27C and app keep insisting cloudy but in reality warm and sunny, expecting 28C today.

I was thinking that its strange for all models even usually very good ones like Arpege have so undercooked the maxes.
 

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31.2c in Charlwood at 3pm hottest so far. Date record is 31.7c from 1970 so likely to go.

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GFS very warm today. Even if it does turn more unsettled later in the run, it never really has any properly cool air setting in. Very warm and dry transitioning to warm and showery/thundery, sums it up.

I wonder if we're in with the chance of the warmest June since 1976?

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It's amazing how easily 30C is reached these days. 

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I was thinking that its strange for all models even usually very good ones like Arpege have so undercooked the maxes.
 

GFS was good last year heatwave but this time not good, other charts showing 29-30C over Birmingham area was correct as is now 29C in Nuneaton so hat off to them.

Maxed out at 27.8C here. Getting sticky and oppressive but pleased to get shot of the cloud. Heading for a record dry spell as well at this rate.

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31.2c in Charlwood at 3pm hottest so far. Date record is 31.7c from 1970 so likely to go.

Chertsey top spot today 32.2c . Date record.  Well done UKV model. 

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Chertsey top spot today 32.2c . Date record.  Well done UKV model. 

Remarkably high, equal to the warmest day of the year in 2021, for example, and warmer than anything in the years of 2007-2010.

There were only two years in the whole of the 1980s which recorded warmer days. Scary huh?
 

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Remarkably high, equal to the warmest day of the year in 2021, for example, and warmer than anything in the years of 2007-2010.

There were only two years in the whole of the 1980s which recorded warmer days. Scary huh?
 

only when people realise - heat is here to stay and will only get worse. The build up to this was chilly easterly winds and a wet continent

12z Arpege has 30c at least, every day to Wednesday. 

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UKV 15z also 30c every day until Wednesday.  Only 29c Thursday though. 😁

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