The old joke about 2 economists getting you 3 opinions applies to the models at the moment; only it's a case of N models giving you 2N opinions, as they all change come the next run. But for the moment ...
WX temps show cold air well spread across W Europe including Britain in week 1, withdrawing to E France in week 2 but intensifying, Britain still on the cold side, though; a bigger mass of extra-cold air developing over Siberia; a little milder over Spain but colder in the Balkans. Mainly dry over Britain in week 1 with pptn all around; in week 2 the pattern shifts to one patch on the N Atlantic also affecting britain, and intense rainfall separately around Greece.
GFS Op - Britain under N/NE lies resulting from LP over Scandinavia which slowly fills leaving cold air over Britain to mon 12th. This morning's treatment of the Atlantic LP leaves it W of Ireland and Britain under a weak N-S ridge of \HP (1015mb) Wed 14th. High pressure continues to be present and intensifies as part of a Scandinavian HP 1035mb Sun 18th N Sea and strong S-lies for W coasts. The Atlantic LP then diversifies into a trough moving E-wards across Britain and the final chart, Fri 23rd, shows something 'normal' for midwinter with W-lies between HP to the SW and LP over Iceland.
ECM - the coldies' favourite; from Mon 12th the Atlantic LP projects a trough into the Channel Wed 14th 995mb N France with enough cold air advected from the E to suggest the possibility of snow in S England. The LP then grows into a three-centre feature Fri 16th, 995mb Germany, 1000mb Finland and 995 mb Norwegian Sea, all with quite cold air advected over Britain. A startling difference from GFS.
GEFS - remaining v cold and mainly dry to Tue 13th after which chaos ensues; the mean is back to norm but this means very little with e.g. selected runs in the S, Sun 18th one 10C above norm and one 10C below. Most ens members have some pptn from that Tue with snow row figures highest as the potential breakdown starts
Other models are available, as they say.
Edited by user
07 December 2022 08:41:20
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Reason: Not specified
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