The GFS model is really struggling with the evolution in a fortnight's time; pick your charts from the last few days and you could have a tropical blast from the south or an arctic blast from the north -see the last 3 or 4 posts and the daily reviews. Probably not unrelated to the instability of the jet noted yesterday which had very strong with N and S flows both geographically close on the same day, and switching positions from just W of the UK to just east of the UK on following days.
As for what's showing this morning:
Wx summary resembles yesterday wrt temp, though the push of cold air from the NE is less intense while covering the same area (bulge of cold air moving E with 0C isotherm almost reaching Poland week 2 which should restore temps to normal over there. some cooling around UK too but no more than seasonal.). However the rain/snow while the same for week 1 (N Atlantic and Baltic) now sticks in that area and no longer shifts to W fringes in week 2, indeed affecting more of Scandinavia.
Jet -a generally W-ly flow near N Scotland for this week gives way to a looping jet from Sun 14th, with amplitude from Iceland to S England (less extreme than yesterday), broader loops and the loops themselves moving E-wards and not sticking in one place
GFS op - best described as Zonal overall for next two weeks, with a tweak from TS Wanda as it moves past Scotland on Tue.. LPs in the flow (which will bring down N-lies) on Sun 7th 985 mb Fair Isle , Mon 15th (trough down from Iceland), Sun 21st 975 mb Hebrides but overall HP quite strong near the S/SW and bringing in mild air from S central Atlantic esp Sat 13th 1025mb N France, Tue 16th and Mon 22nd both 1040mb off SW Eire
GEFS - in the S temp rising to mild (v. mild ca 6C above norm Sun 14th) for 10 days then declining steadily to below norm by Mon 22nd (varying a bit in different runs); not much rain and that mostly around Thu 18th. Some conflict of suite of runs with the op charts described above and for Scotland some wild temp swings imposed on the more stable pattern in the S
ECM - broad area of HP across esp S England without much interference from passing LPs, retrogressing Mon 15th with LP over Scandi bringing N-lies
All in all, a bit of a muddle and inconsistent from day to day
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl