Tbf this one time they seem to have been on the money. Looks like a tornado in Northamptonshire.  80mph gusts.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59110091

 

 

See my post above!

---

I noticed that hooked feature which moved NE across central southern England just behind the main rain band. I did wonder what weather was underneath it…

---

 

See my post above!

Yes I think a mini Sting Jet probably more likely than a tornado.  The effect on the ground similar though.

---

 

Yes I think a mini Sting Jet probably more likely than a tornado.  The effect on the ground similar though.

"mini sting jet" 

Silly Season has started early. 

I must say the the UKV picked up the squall line quite well. 

Can't wait to use that and MOGREPS when/if we get a cold spell this Winter.

I happened to drive across country late afternoon from Cambridgeshire to Gloucestershire. Through Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire there were many fallen roadside trees and a lot of tree litter on the roads. Fortunately I had no delays but there were still some crews beside the roadside with chainsaws dealing with the aftermath.

---

There was significant storm damage earlier today with numerous downed trees, crushed cars, fallen branches and flooded roads in this part of Dorset. I think most occurred with a short time maybe twenty minutes as that sting curve of cloud went over and the wind veered to the west. Greatest storm this year IMO around here. Numerous reports in local media and I think it took a lot of us by surprise.

---

A small low formed within the broad trough and deepened rapidly as it raced north-east from the English Channel near Dorset.

Suggestions are that during the rapid intensification, Sting Jet effects were felt hence the very strong winds close to the feature.

It is also likely that the damage was as a result of SLW's rather than tornadic

 

Wx summary - cold air making steady progress from NE - Finland and Baltic states close to )C by end of week 2 while UK still mild and France/Spain though mild still cold for the time of year. Wet weather in week 1 from UK down to Med, moving N and leaving W Europe very dry week 2

GFS - Current LP 975 mb Scotland moving N; a few days of N-ly winds before becoming W-lies with LP near Scotland and occasional troughs across the rest of the UK until Wed 10th when one LP deepens E Scotland 970 mb with a fresh dose of N-lies. Soon switching back to SW/S-ly winds with Hp growing from the SW to cover all UK 1030mb Tue 16th (but showing signs of moving on E-wards) Less indication of cold air to the NE than in WX

GEFS - cool/cold to Sun 7th after which little agreement; mean stays near seasonal norm, op for the S suggests warm/cold/warm for the 9th/11th/15th, even less coherent for Scotland. More rain than shown y'day for week beginning Tue 9th, continuing longer for the N, again at odds with WX

ECM - resembles GFS though like yesterday, last frames show LP closer to UK Thu 11th, but downgraded to a broad trough instead of y'day's Lp centred near the SW

---

 

"mini sting jet" 

Silly Season has started early. 

I must say the the UKV picked up the squall line quite well. 

Can't wait to use that and MOGREPS when/if we get a cold spell this Winter.

Before you start rubbishing people...read the discussion. I have 45 years as a meteorologist and I chose my words carefully, having experienced tornadoes, derechos and microbursts as a convective specialist. I can tell you that under that hook feature there were mainly straight line winds, but I cant discount some small vortices on a very localised level. Several other meteorologists known to me have appeared on TV regarding this feature and say the same.

---

Before you start rubbishing people...read the discussion. I have 45 years as a meteorologist and I chose my words carefully, having experienced tornadoes, derechos and microbursts as a convective specialist. I can tell you that under that hook feature there were mainly straight line winds, but I cant discount some small vortices on a very localised level. Several other meteorologists known to me have appeared on TV regarding this feature and say the same.

Thanks Steve. We certainly had a couple of surprising short storms come through yesterday with high, squally wind and violent rainfall. I've seldom seen anything like it. I'm not a meteorologist, so appreciate comments like yours to educate me and give me something to read up on!

Roger

---

The 0z Control run looks nice 

An early taste of winter. Shades of 2010 (although set-up a bit different)

Hope it's picking up on a trend, and not just going off on one of its regular LSD trips!!

 

 

---

 

Before you start rubbishing people...read the discussion. I have 45 years as a meteorologist and I chose my words carefully, having experienced tornadoes, derechos and microbursts as a convective specialist. I can tell you that under that hook feature there were mainly straight line winds, but I cant discount some small vortices on a very localised level. Several other meteorologists known to me have appeared on TV regarding this feature and say the same.

I wasn't rubbishing the fact, that some type of sting jet incident could of of been responsible for the damage at all, but the fact that is was described as being "mini" nothing mini about a sting jet 🙂

I wasn't rubbishing the fact, that some type of sting jet incident could of of been responsible for the damage at all, but the fact that is was described as being "mini" nothing mini about a sting jet 🙂

LOL - must admit that prefacing weather terminology with "mini" usually requires restraint before I get abusive 

Consistent signals across a number of outputs of a height rise to our North West by mid November.

Could potentially be our first cold spell starting to show itself

---

I noticed that hooked feature which moved NE across central southern England just behind the main rain band. I did wonder what weather was underneath it…

I was staying in a safari tent in Dorset over the weekend. That hooked feature passed just a few miles to the north early yesterday morning, but it was still properly stormy and windy - quite an experience 

We also went down to the coast at Kimmeridge yesterday. It was hard to stand up on the clifftop, and the streams going over the edge of the cliffs were being blown back up and onto the land. There were still plenty of nutters out on windsurfers and kitesurfers!

---

What a messy chart in North Atlantic

This is the ensembles for Reykjavik, lines zigzagging up and down, with 15c variations

 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Reykjavik_Iceland

 

 

 

---

wx summaries showing an (apparent) paradox of mild weather for the W of Europe (but below norm) and cold in the E (but above norm). In week 2 not such deep cold to the NE but somewhat colder weather spreading SW-wards. Rain in the N Atlantic (catching N Scotland) and in the Med, mostly dry between.

Jet - currently looping S of Uk, the loop replaced around Sat 6th with a straighter flow across or close to Scotlland, occasionally a bit to N and likewise to S but with a loop taking it N-wards Sun 14th

GFS op - current LP moving off N-wards leaving a trail of N-ly winds for a few days. From Sat 6th HP tries to build from the S but keeps getting pushed baxk by LPs moving near N Scotland (975mb Sun 7th Faeroes, 960mb Thu 11th SE Iceland) before strengthening over UK 1035 mb Sun 14th. Final chart Thu 18th shows retrogression with N-lies establishing

GEFS - rising from coldest point Fri 5th Nov to equally mild Tue 9th. Mean stays a little above norm with op & control mostly on the mild side in S, rather a roller-coaster of temps for Scotland, all showing a dip at the end (Thu 18th). A little rain on and off after Wed 10th.

ECM - like GFS but keeps pressure higher over the S

---

Shame the Control has virtually zero support 

---

wx summary temp still quite mild across Europe week 1 (though this conceals below seasonal norm in Iberia and above around the Black Sea) but in week 2 cold air to the NE makes a move into Europe with a tongue reaching down to the Alps. 0C isotherm running along E frontier of Russia an N half of Scandinavia. Rain in N Atlantic & Med week 1 switching to extreme Atlantic fringes and also Med week 2 (i.e. SE England still dry)

Jet much as yesterday at first - current loop around the S of UK replaced by a series of streaks across or near N Scotland from Sat 6th until Wed 17th when it splits into a N branch near Iceland and a S branch through Spain & N Africa

GFS op -   current N-lies over UK replaced by HP across the S Sat 6th which stays to Wed 16th while LPs run close to N Scotland at times (Sun 7th, Fri 12th). Then more vigorous LP on Atlantic plus HP on continent generate SE-lies for UK; by Thu 17th LP moves S to 960 mb off NW Spain and HP 1035mb Baltic is building a ridge to Iceland

GEFS -  mean temps & most runs back to seasonal norm by Sun 7th, after which mean stays close to or a little above norm with less scatter than previously in S and rather more in N (though at end i.e. from Wed 17th op is v.  high and control is equally low). Difference between S & N presumably depending on how far the LP near N Scotland manages to push into the HP over the S. Small amounts of rain from Tue 7th but a few runs with snow for Scotland at end of sequence

ECM - similar to GFS with variations as to the balance of LP to N of Scotland and HP to S of England (LP more dominant Wed 9th and less Fri 12th compared to GFS)

---

Very dry outlook for November in the South. Mild as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

---