What a messy chart in North Atlantic

This is the ensembles for Reykjavik, lines zigzagging up and down, with 15c variations

 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Reykjavik_Iceland

 

 

 

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wx summaries showing an (apparent) paradox of mild weather for the W of Europe (but below norm) and cold in the E (but above norm). In week 2 not such deep cold to the NE but somewhat colder weather spreading SW-wards. Rain in the N Atlantic (catching N Scotland) and in the Med, mostly dry between.

Jet - currently looping S of Uk, the loop replaced around Sat 6th with a straighter flow across or close to Scotlland, occasionally a bit to N and likewise to S but with a loop taking it N-wards Sun 14th

GFS op - current LP moving off N-wards leaving a trail of N-ly winds for a few days. From Sat 6th HP tries to build from the S but keeps getting pushed baxk by LPs moving near N Scotland (975mb Sun 7th Faeroes, 960mb Thu 11th SE Iceland) before strengthening over UK 1035 mb Sun 14th. Final chart Thu 18th shows retrogression with N-lies establishing

GEFS - rising from coldest point Fri 5th Nov to equally mild Tue 9th. Mean stays a little above norm with op & control mostly on the mild side in S, rather a roller-coaster of temps for Scotland, all showing a dip at the end (Thu 18th). A little rain on and off after Wed 10th.

ECM - like GFS but keeps pressure higher over the S

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Shame the Control has virtually zero support 

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wx summary temp still quite mild across Europe week 1 (though this conceals below seasonal norm in Iberia and above around the Black Sea) but in week 2 cold air to the NE makes a move into Europe with a tongue reaching down to the Alps. 0C isotherm running along E frontier of Russia an N half of Scandinavia. Rain in N Atlantic & Med week 1 switching to extreme Atlantic fringes and also Med week 2 (i.e. SE England still dry)

Jet much as yesterday at first - current loop around the S of UK replaced by a series of streaks across or near N Scotland from Sat 6th until Wed 17th when it splits into a N branch near Iceland and a S branch through Spain & N Africa

GFS op -   current N-lies over UK replaced by HP across the S Sat 6th which stays to Wed 16th while LPs run close to N Scotland at times (Sun 7th, Fri 12th). Then more vigorous LP on Atlantic plus HP on continent generate SE-lies for UK; by Thu 17th LP moves S to 960 mb off NW Spain and HP 1035mb Baltic is building a ridge to Iceland

GEFS -  mean temps & most runs back to seasonal norm by Sun 7th, after which mean stays close to or a little above norm with less scatter than previously in S and rather more in N (though at end i.e. from Wed 17th op is v.  high and control is equally low). Difference between S & N presumably depending on how far the LP near N Scotland manages to push into the HP over the S. Small amounts of rain from Tue 7th but a few runs with snow for Scotland at end of sequence

ECM - similar to GFS with variations as to the balance of LP to N of Scotland and HP to S of England (LP more dominant Wed 9th and less Fri 12th compared to GFS)

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Very dry outlook for November in the South. Mild as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Agree. Of course it could change very quickly but I'm surprised how many people have already written a cold November into their diaries.  

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Agreed I'm not banking on a cold November, although the chances of a cold snap should be a little higher than normal given the teleconections. Overall though I would expect a close to average month.

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perhaps lows of 5 or 6 and highs os 10 is a cold spell now?

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Shame not happening in summer when we needed and my wife commented that this Autumn had been more sunnier and always appear in between rainfalls compare to summer overcast and colder.  With now 8 hours of sunlight available we get around 3-5 hours per day while in summer was 0-1 hour per day against ht 16 hours sunlight duration, should be around 9-12 hours per day.

wx summaries have the same theme as yesterday: an (apparent) paradox of mild weather for the W of Europe (but below norm) and cold in the E (but above norm). In week 2 not such deep cold to the NE but somewhat colder weather spreading SW-wards. Rain in the N Atlantic (catching N Scotland) and in the Med, mostly dry between.

Jet also similar to yesterday to start with, with a period of activity near to or across Scotland but different from Wed 17th with the N arm of the split jet shown yesterday suppressed and all the energy (and increasedly so) going into a S branch running SW of Ireland and down to Spain

GFS op - Zonal flow starting up from Friday, with LPs passing E-wards close to N Scotland (notably Sun 7th 990 mb Faeroes, repeat Sat 13th) and HP in S England and France. Then the LP which arises Tue 16th 965 mb Rockall develops a trough S-wards down the Irish Sea to Spain before re-grouping Sat 20th 975 Rockall again. Charts after Tue 16th quite different from yesterday's.

GEFS - temps back to norm Sat 7th then up and down with increasing uncertainty but suggestions of mild periods around Mon 8th and Fri 13th. Mostly dry to start with but more chance of rain after Mon 15th in S; rather wetter in Scotland continuously from Tue 9th. 

ECM also has the W-ly zonal pattern but keeps the track of the LPs further N, passing across Iceland after Sun 7th (last chart in this series is Sun 14th)

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Normal boring Autumnal fare and likely to continue for some time judging by what the models are showing. Nothing showing in the strat either to be more optimistic about. The Met 30 day outlook offers slight optimism but lost count how many times they have been wrong. Would not be surprised to see these change to more zonal theme in the next few days. 

 

I don’t think true zonal is on the cards, at least not for the vast majority of England and Wales. You are right however about how poor Met office 30 dayers have been in recent months, all year in fact. It makes the contingency planners look even more ridiculous. A multi million pound lab funded by tax payers money, yet cannot even come close to its own deadlines. 

Difficult to argue with any of that. I think in all honesty at this time of year it is about sorting the wheat from the chaff because a lot of the pundits (I'm not thinking so much on this forum) serve up the same cold dish year in year out.

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Who is forecasting a cold winter this year? 

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Absolutely

Numerous independent pundits.

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Fair enough! 

I thought the consensus was for a mild one but to be honest I’m a little out of the loop this year. 

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Including the BBC

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1450138705767845896

WX summary show bulge of cold air moving E with 0C isotherm almost reaching Poland week 2 which should restore temps to normal over there. some cooling around UK tpp bit no more than seasonal. Rain around Baltic week 1 retreating to W fringes of continent and W Ned.

Jet unstable - week 1 w-ly streaks of varying strengths across/near N Scotland but flipping in week 2 into wild swings between N-ly and S-ly, and a strong flow too

GFS op to Sun 14th continuing W-ly pattern, LP near Scotland (esp Sun 7th) until Sun 14th when a cold LP moves S over UK (990mb England by Tue 16th) and on down to Spain. Then a brief pressure rise over the N before a reload on Sat/Sun 20/21st. The model is struggling with what happens when the zonal flow breaks down

GEFS temps generally above norm Sun 7th - Sat 13th (a cooler dip embedded in this spell in Scotland) after which an uncertain cooling, very variable in N; rain  less than y'day, dry to 16th (v dry in S) and a little rain thereafter.

ECM builds HP more strongly around Thu 11th and then the run finishes before Tue 16th but the LP as shown in GFSlooks as if it might be slower to develop

 

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Thanks, that’s interesting.

I’m assuming that’s Meteo Group.

Anyway - wrong thread for such musings. 

In the medium term looking generally mild, albeit with an increasing likelihood of frost and fog, especially towards the SE with high pressure nudging in. 

 

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Unlike a lot of the others that is one I wouldn't discount. However, I'd be interested to know more about the context and what it is based on.

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For one thing a cold winter forecast generates a lot more public interest than a boring mild or wet one.

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A very wet winter generates loads of interest. A mild and dry one doesn't. 

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Personally a drier winter would be welcome. these past few years have just been a sludge fest, with a 20mm+ deluge once every few days.

Shorter term the signals in the charts seem to point towards a HP steered weather, with occasional LPs clipping the UK. Meaning drier, but cold nights where skies are clear and winds are slight.

Meaning the weather is about as usuable as it can be. Golf and running a plenty for me 😃

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Actually the older I get the more I like the idea of a boring mild and dry winter. Xmas card snowscapes are nice to look at, but not much fun to travel around in. Let's be honest, this country grinds to a halt with half an inch of snow, unlike our Scandanavian neighbours who are properly prepared for it.

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