Daily Express forecasting 31c blowtorch conditions for next week. Wet, windy and cool it is then..

---

The day’s runs end with a slight upgrade, and a handful of very hot ensemble members. Still some hope left.

---

9.55 bbc forecasting no return to heat . Pleasant summer conditions around average for most .

There's September to come, so there's still hopes for a heatwave (especially in the S).

Little change in summary - perhaps rather wetter week 2 in N England.

Jet - little action near the UK until Wed 25th when streak devlops acoss S England and stays for a week, esp strong Sun 29th.

GFs op - HP currently W of UK fades to col Thu 19th until general rise of pressure Sun 22nd (but with small embedded LP over SW England) which eventually becomes a trough stretched across central UK Thu 26th and the HP pushed off to Iceland. Brief ridge of HP before new LP from Atlantic 1000mb Scotland with attendant cold pool Mon 30th (this conflicts with the Daily Express forecast ) 

Temps fairly close to nrom for the next two weeks; although a few warm/hot outliers there is more consensus on average temps than yesterday. Some rain around Sun 22nd in runs other than the op (cf above) otherwise mainly dry

ECM - pressure rises more strongly than in GFS after Sun 22nd and covers UK but the broad trough mentioned above is there by Fri 27th

---

More precipitation spikes showing on the ensembles today, especially on GFS. The Op run is a little on the pessimistic side but there is a good chance that next week will see showers breaking out from time to time pretty much anywhere in the UK. This weekend was looking mainly dry but now appears to be quite wet in some areas.

---

So close to something hot and decent here

its increasingly looking better, but then defaults to rain... just a tweak here or there could make this very interesting

---

After 5 days or so you might as well stick pins in a board at the moment

Aside from temperature variations the rainfall looks quite unpredictable by next week with hints of northern blocking again 

After 5 days or so you might as well stick pins in a board at the moment

Aside from temperature variations the rainfall looks quite unpredictable by next week with hints of northern blocking again 

Well, I'd say after 5 days you can bet heavily on one outcome - pesky shallow lows will constantly turn up in what is supposed to be an anticyclonic pattern and give us more wet weather.

It's done it again this morning across almost all the models: Saturday and Sunday now a washout because of, guess what, a shallow low.   

---

 

Well, I'd say after 5 days you can bet heavily on one outcome - pesky shallow lows will constantly turn up in what is supposed to be an anticyclonic pattern and give us more wet weather.

It's done it again this morning across almost all the models: Saturday and Sunday now a washout because of, guess what, a shallow low.   

It's been a feature of the summer and models seem to struggle at mid range in picking it up. It may be a temporary shift but it is interesting

There goes this weekend. It
Was looking good a few days ago, now rain and showers.

This morning there were more pulses of rain the southeast than I was expecting.

Models a bit of a mess.

---

I feel no pride in it, but I was right to call this summer. (although that post seems to have been deleted)

 

I said in late June that even if by some miracle we got two weeks of hottish weather in July and two in August, it would be near to being an average warm periood after such a cold spring.

 

In fact, we got one in July and none in August (I believe no prolonged heat will come now)  Sittng in London and having to close the windows becasue of a chilly breeze.

 

Adding this the the coldest mid to late spring in my lifetime, this is the worst weather year for warmth I have ever seen. Even the cool summers like 2007 had warmth in spring.  All our heat has been incarcerated in Southern Europe or elswhere this.  Was sort of hoping that one positive out of warming temperatures on this planet would mean we didnt see a lack of heat for so long.

 My friends tomato crop got blight on the 2nd August. I stopped going to my allotment 8 weeks ago. Just too depressing.  Never thought that would happen. 

 

Edit:  Just got back from Antigua yesterday.  Feeling more positive about choosing my right to use my fathers heritage to get an Antiguan passport (dual passport holder now)  Seriously thinking about retiring away from this nonsense.  I suffer from SAD and raynauds syndrome.  Never thought I would regularly struggle to use my hands in the summer months in some years on a regulat basis.

---

Interesting how the perceptions change by location - I spent last week camping on the Isle of Wight and after a rather windy first day on Monday it was a pretty summery week. I got a decent tan, the sea was warm and the only rain we got fell overnight. Evenings were also pleasantly warm and generally clear enough for meteor spotting too.

---

Its a waste of time looking at anything beyond 5 days,as has always been the case throughout the whole of this summer the models throwing up warm to hot conditions beyond day 7-10 and as soon as we get within range those warm to hot runs dissappear,except once in July. Brians 14 day forecasts on youtube have often given the promise of `jam tomorrow`which has not happened neither.Not criticicing him personally as he is only interpreting the model runs which have and are showing a lot of scatter all through the summer with shallow lows suddenly appearing from nowhere.

Its looking like we may get high(er) pressure next week but the question is is where will the high pressure be centred?? Its looking increasingly likely we are going to get northern blocking so no heatwave(not that im complaining) but some pleasant dry weather in the 21c-23c range would do nicely.

Interesting how the perceptions change by location - I spent last week camping on the Isle of Wight and after a rather windy first day on Monday it was a pretty summery week. I got a decent tan, the sea was warm and the only rain we got fell overnight. Evenings were also pleasantly warm and generally clear enough for meteor spotting too.

That would is true and coupled with many members’ tendency towards hyperbole one gets a rather twisted picture. I mean, is this coming weekend a “washout”?

The raw data suggests a warm, dry day on Saturday, for example (wet Sunday). I mean it might indeed turn out to be a washout Saturday but I remain to be convinced.

 

 

 

---

Little change from present conditions in the summary though somewhat drier in week 2 esp in the S

Not much action from the jet for two weeks: occasional streaks down the N Sea e.g. Thu 26th. Yesterday's forecast of a strong jet across the S later on has gone entirely.

GFS op -current HP to W of UK fading to col Fri 20th; LP at W end of that col drifts along the Channel Sun 22nd and a N-S ridge of HP follows on for the week afterwards though the LP never really clears the SE with NE-ly winds until the HP strengthens and covers all UK 1030mb Wed 1st before showing signs of being displaced by Atlantic LP Fri 3rd.Ex-hurricane Henri showing near Newfoundland Sun 29th but not progressing this way.

GEFS - mean of runs stays near norm for two weeks with moderately good agreement - perhaps a couple of days warmer and wetter Sun 22nd and again a week later but otherwise most runs dry on most days.

ECM - takes the shallow low Sun 22nd a little further N, across C England, and then shows it filling quickly so the ridge of HP following covers all UK fully.

---

Potentially warm in eastern England on Saturday according to the UKV. Still uncertain.

---

There's September to come, so there's still hopes for a heatwave (especially in the S).

By then though, I will just be wanting to get on with autumn, so the last thing which I will be looking for at that time is another heatwave.

We have had more than enough hot weather up here during this summer and even this month hasn't been too bad here.

We haven't had any hot weather during this month but the temperatures have generally been fairly reasonable and we haven't had any exceptionally cool weather during this month so far.

Basically, this has been a summer when the models have consistently underestimated our temperatures and overestimated the amount of rain which we are likely to get here.

---

 

We haven't had any hot weather during this month but the temperatures have generally been fairly reasonable and we haven't had any exceptionally cool weather during this month so far.

You just defined a normal August in northern UK.
Why would anyone want September - a similar pleasant equitable month by and large - 'out of the way' so that cold rain damp and gloom of winter can return as soon as possible.
Thankfully even October is often quite reasonable until the last week or so too.

---

 

By then though, I will just be wanting to get on with autumn, so the last thing which I will be looking for at that time is another heatwave.

We have had more than enough hot weather up here during this summer and even this month hasn't been too bad here.

We haven't had any hot weather during this month but the temperatures have generally been fairly reasonable and we haven't had any exceptionally cool weather during this month so far.

Basically, this has been a summer when the models have consistently underestimated our temperatures and overestimated the amount of rain which we are likely to get here.

Wanting to get on with Autumn in Scotland is probably an unusual viewpoint for most people! And I guess 20-23c must count as a heatwave up there?

Agree though that the models have generally looked worse on paper than the actual weather has turned out away from the SE at least.

---