Yes, another product of the common fly in the ointment that has blighted the far South East this summer: the persistence of low pressure to our East and South East meaning that:

• High pressure gets forced a bit too far North and undercut by cloudy North Sea air


• The usual Westerlies don't ridge over Kent and the near continent but swoop down towards Germany and Switzerland bringing cool and cloud to the SE but more ridgy and dry weather to the NW and Ireland


• in periods of slack pressure there is enough instability close by to give us repeated doses of heavy showers  

wx summaries - yesterday's downgrade in temps confirmed, but now rather drier through to end of week 2. BBC also on board with a period of cool NE-lies towards the end of this week.

jet - omega block keeping the jet away from UK and up near Iceland; begins to break up Thu 2nd with occasional streaks close to UK mostly running N-S down the N Sea; then more organised W-E flow across N Scotland from Mon 6th

GFS op -current HP persisting and drifting N with some NE-ly flow for England at end of week but then (like ECM yesterday) ridge builds from Scotland to Norway Sun 29th with more of an E-ly flow and source of air from N cut off in favour of source in C Europe. The HP centre moves NW  Sat 4th allowing NE-lies back briefly before a quick shift S-wards introduces the familiar zonal flow. An ex-hurricane appears in mid-Atlantic Thu 2nd but makes no further progress before dying away.

GEFS - temps near seasonal norm in the S or a little above in the N with quite good agreement between runs to Fri 3rd, after which perhaps a little cooler and rain appearing in a few runs.

ECM - similar to GFS though deeper LP in Baltic adds some strength to the E/NE winds on the E coast

WX Summaries: still cool with temp noticeably below average for all W Europe including UK though some warmth pushing into SW France. The Uk stays dry while there is more rain about on the Continent.

Jet: spends most of its time in a loop up towards Iceland; a brief blast from the N for the UK Sun 5th as the  loop has a wobble.

GFS op: HP centred around the NW of Britain 1030 mb, finally reaching 1035 mb Wed 1st, with the E coast and the SE getting E/NE winds which may bring in cloud there from time to time. something of a breakdown Fri 3rd as the HP weakens and moves W-wards, even a hint of a Spanish plume; but the plume comes to nothing and the HP is back and centrally placed 1030mb Wed 8th onwards.

GEFS - mean of temp runs close to norm with agreement until Wed 1st (up and down a bit in the S, consistently a little above in Scotland) after which the usual variation sets in though mean still symmetrically close to norm, as many warm outliers as cool ones. Dry throughout, some runs with a small amount of rain after Fri 3rd and a very few runs  in the S with extreme rainfall spikes.

ECM ( 12z after Mon 30th, I might come back and update later) but very much like GFS

September warmth proving more reliable than Sir Donald Bradman?

Up to 12-13C ?  Should be around 26-27C in Manchester but how it can reached that if very overcast skies and raw outside now.  Cant wait to get out of August and hope Sept to become summer month extension and October if possible to make up for it.

Wx summaries show more warmth and dryness moving in from the SW than did yesterday; but N Scotland remains cool and later wet

Jet staying as a lop around Iceland until Wed 8th when it runs strongly across N Scotland and a few days later translates into a loop affecting the W/NW of UK

GFS op  - HP centred over N Scotland until Sat 4th with E-lies for S England; then the HP weakens and transfers S becoming stronger again  and centred over Nw France Thu 9th and SW-lies for the W side of UK. Last frame on Sat 11th shows deep depression approaching NW Scotland

GEFS - temps in agreement not far from norm until Sun 5th (for the S a little cooler at first, a little warmer later, for the N consistently above seasonal norm) then a lot of variation with op & control bullish for warmth but several v. cold runs as well. A little rain likely after the 5th but dry before that. 

ECM - similar to GFS but HP  only affecting S England by Sun 5th after the weakening noted under GFS

Worse than even 2012 and 2007?

Blimey!

The cricket game analogy is interesting. Up here in the Eden Valley Cricket League (Cumbria), just two games lost this season to the weather. Best for years.

Not a single adult game Saturday or Sunday played on astro, grass all the way. In fact as the groundsman a little more rain would have been helpful.

Anyway back to the weather models - wondering if developments in the Gulf Of Mexico will impact on us in 8-10days ?

I would like to see some clear nights next week. It's a good week for astrophotography with a new moon. I won't hold my breath though - a lot of cloud could be around in the S.E.

Wx summaries sow a bit of warmth in the SW week 1, in the SE week 2, but still underwhelming. Dry everywhere week 1, some rain in N Scotland week 2.

GFS op : large HP centred over NW Scotland to Sat 4th, some E or NE winds off the N Sea for S and SE England; then the centre moves S-wards to N France for a few days to Wed 8th and allowing trough to move in 1005mb Western Isles Fri 10th before showing signs of revival from the SW Sun 12th

GEFS ; temps close to norm with good agreement between runs to Sun 5th (op is a cold outlier) after which marginally warmer on average but wide range (op & control then amongst the warmest at least for the S). very dry in the S; perhaps a little rain week 2 in N

ECM ; a  collapse of HP a week earlier, Fri 3rd with broad an shallow trough over all UK; HP reviving from the SE Mon 6th

The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness 'tis nearly upon us..

12z ensembles suggest a warm and dry first week

Had a feeling that September might be the month to see the first ever wall to wall sunshine since mid June here only 1 day in 92 of summer day had been wall to wall sunshine so far. 

Warm and dry first half of September but how much cloud? It's been the bane of the whole summer.

A London-centric view? The WX summaries keep it cool for the north though today's view is for dry everywhere. However, I agree, it's time the SE got some better weather.

GEFS - see above but note that Scotland temp declines towards the norm and below in week 2, and has more though still small amounts if rain then

GFS - HP continues centred over NW Scotland to Fri 3rd with NE-lies for the E Coast of UK. IT then moves SE an settles over the Low Countries 1030mb Tue 7th before moving N again and allowing trough of LP to approach from the S Fri 10th. This trough comes to nothing and HP moves in from the SW to become centred over the Channel Mon 13th with SW-lies for NI & Scotland

ECM - differs from GFS after Fri 3rd with first a shallow LP over the SW and then a major trough approaching NW Scotland 995mb Rockall Tue 7th with pressure low across most of UK (the BBC WFTWA last night had a similar downgrade for later next weekend)

The SE deserves some warmth .

I suspect in absolute terms it has been a warmer summer in the SE than in most of the U.K. (not in terms of deviation from climate mmeans).

True, just about, but this summer has gone  a long way towards evening up a typical difference between the Scottish lowlands (avg 11-12C for summer months) and the London area (avg 13-14C) with the MetO saying that the 'north' (however they define that) has been 1.5C above avg while the SE has been normal

Yes, that’s true. “The North” has also had drier weather for some of the time which probably adds to the perception of a better summer (t)here.