🤣🤣🤣 It certainly feels that way. It has been an absolutelegend horrendous summer here. 7 cricket matches (out of 16 so far) washed out this year. That is the worst ever in my 30 years playing cricket. Virtually half the season washed out. Incredible. Worst by miles.

I believe you Moomin!  We we’re driving down to Southampton on 28th July, it was dry all the way but on the A34 there was a big black cloud in front of us. The heavens opened as we passed a sign for Whitney but a few miles on, it was dry again. Ten days later, we returned and sure enough it was raining around Whitney. 

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Certainly looking dry according to this mornings GEFS..High pressure being the main contender for the UK..

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Daily Express still going on about summer heatwave! I suppose if they keep saying it enough times law of averages say they will eventually get it right.

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🤣🤣🤣 It certainly feels that way. It has been an absolutelegend horrendous summer here. 7 cricket matches (out of 16 so far) washed out this year. That is the worst ever in my 30 years playing cricket. Virtually half the season washed out. Incredible. Worst by miles.

Rain stats for here for summer (probably not much the rest of this month):

June: 3 days more than 4mm total 57mm
July: 3 days more than 4mm total 31mm
August: 1 day more than 3mm total 23.8mm

 

 

 

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Daily Express still going on about summer heatwave! I suppose if they keep saying it enough times law of averages say they will eventually get it right.

Ah, but which summer?

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2037. I have a good feeling in my bones about that one.

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Rain stats for here for summer (probably not much the rest of this month):

June: 3 days more than 4mm total 57mm
July: 3 days more than 4mm total 31mm
August: 1 day more than 3mm total 23.8mm

 

 

 

 

Wrong thread really but think I'm at 100+ for June 85+ for July and 88+ August. June was probably the worst of the 3 with the remainder mixed but not too bad.

Outlook wise and looking good for a dry and fairly warm end to August pretty much countrywide. 

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Possibility that we could see some retrogression of the high as we move into September. Early September still very much up for grabs, could be cool could be warm, but looks likely to feature high pressure.

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Summary - temps not as warm as yesterdays' summary; a bit of a see-saw as to where the cold air from the N plunges, yesterday it was E Europe, today that's shifted W a bit and looks more like 2 days ago. Still dry, signs of rain approaching by end of week 2.

GFS - HP covering all Uk by wed 25th as before, drifting N-wards Mon 30th and W-wards Wed 1st allowing winds from NW to NE to develop in a week's time. UK sits in a col around Sat 4th but HP re-asserts itself (not very convincingly IMO) from se by Tue 7th. Yesterdays' model of new strong HP cells from Atlantic has collapsed.

GEFS - temps agreed fairly close to norm in S (though it will no doubt feel warm in any sunshine), 3 or 4C above in N, to Tue 1st after which most runs cooler, even cold on op run (about 7C below norm around Sun 5th). Dry for now; some runs with small amounts of rain 1st week of Sept.

ECM - similar to GFS until Wed 1st when ride of HP hangs on from W of Scotland to N Norway preventing winds from a N-ly point. Instead a shallow LP is working its way up from the S Thu 2nd and winds are more E-ly with source in S central Europe, not Iceland

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A quick skeg through the models seem to be showing this Summer ending exactly how it started with persistent nor'easters here at Kent. Often dry and bright but suppressed temperatures.

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A quick skeg through the models seem to be showing this Summer ending exactly how it started with persistent nor'easters here at Kent. Often dry and bright but suppressed temperatures.

Yes, another product of the common fly in the ointment that has blighted the far South East this summer: the persistence of low pressure to our East and South East meaning that:

• High pressure gets forced a bit too far North and undercut by cloudy North Sea air


• The usual Westerlies don't ridge over Kent and the near continent but swoop down towards Germany and Switzerland bringing cool and cloud to the SE but more ridgy and dry weather to the NW and Ireland


• in periods of slack pressure there is enough instability close by to give us repeated doses of heavy showers  

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wx summaries - yesterday's downgrade in temps confirmed, but now rather drier through to end of week 2. BBC also on board with a period of cool NE-lies towards the end of this week.

jet - omega block keeping the jet away from UK and up near Iceland; begins to break up Thu 2nd with occasional streaks close to UK mostly running N-S down the N Sea; then more organised W-E flow across N Scotland from Mon 6th

GFS op -current HP persisting and drifting N with some NE-ly flow for England at end of week but then (like ECM yesterday) ridge builds from Scotland to Norway Sun 29th with more of an E-ly flow and source of air from N cut off in favour of source in C Europe. The HP centre moves NW  Sat 4th allowing NE-lies back briefly before a quick shift S-wards introduces the familiar zonal flow. An ex-hurricane appears in mid-Atlantic Thu 2nd but makes no further progress before dying away.

GEFS - temps near seasonal norm in the S or a little above in the N with quite good agreement between runs to Fri 3rd, after which perhaps a little cooler and rain appearing in a few runs.

ECM - similar to GFS though deeper LP in Baltic adds some strength to the E/NE winds on the E coast

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WX Summaries: still cool with temp noticeably below average for all W Europe including UK though some warmth pushing into SW France. The Uk stays dry while there is more rain about on the Continent.

Jet: spends most of its time in a loop up towards Iceland; a brief blast from the N for the UK Sun 5th as the  loop has a wobble.

GFS op: HP centred around the NW of Britain 1030 mb, finally reaching 1035 mb Wed 1st, with the E coast and the SE getting E/NE winds which may bring in cloud there from time to time. something of a breakdown Fri 3rd as the HP weakens and moves W-wards, even a hint of a Spanish plume; but the plume comes to nothing and the HP is back and centrally placed 1030mb Wed 8th onwards.

GEFS - mean of temp runs close to norm with agreement until Wed 1st (up and down a bit in the S, consistently a little above in Scotland) after which the usual variation sets in though mean still symmetrically close to norm, as many warm outliers as cool ones. Dry throughout, some runs with a small amount of rain after Fri 3rd and a very few runs  in the S with extreme rainfall spikes.

ECM ( 12z after Mon 30th, I might come back and update later) but very much like GFS

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September warmth proving more reliable than Sir Donald Bradman?

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September warmth proving more reliable than Sir Donald Bradman?

Up to 12-13C ?  Should be around 26-27C in Manchester but how it can reached that if very overcast skies and raw outside now.  Cant wait to get out of August and hope Sept to become summer month extension and October if possible to make up for it.

Well above the mean is the point, those aren't surface temps.

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GEFS output posted above is encouraging if you like it dry and warm (but not hot!). The early September mean is not being lifted by a couple of hot outliers this time and there is more general consensus for warmer air pushing across the UK. The main theme today is dry but as ever with a UK high, cloud amounts are uncertain. And this is still about a week out so things could change.

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Wx summaries show more warmth and dryness moving in from the SW than did yesterday; but N Scotland remains cool and later wet

Jet staying as a lop around Iceland until Wed 8th when it runs strongly across N Scotland and a few days later translates into a loop affecting the W/NW of UK

GFS op  - HP centred over N Scotland until Sat 4th with E-lies for S England; then the HP weakens and transfers S becoming stronger again  and centred over Nw France Thu 9th and SW-lies for the W side of UK. Last frame on Sat 11th shows deep depression approaching NW Scotland

GEFS - temps in agreement not far from norm until Sun 5th (for the S a little cooler at first, a little warmer later, for the N consistently above seasonal norm) then a lot of variation with op & control bullish for warmth but several v. cold runs as well. A little rain likely after the 5th but dry before that. 

ECM - similar to GFS but HP  only affecting S England by Sun 5th after the weakening noted under GFS

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🤣🤣🤣 It certainly feels that way. It has been an absolutelegend horrendous summer here. 7 cricket matches (out of 16 so far) washed out this year. That is the worst ever in my 30 years playing cricket. Virtually half the season washed out. Incredible. Worst by miles.

Worse than even 2012 and 2007?

Blimey!

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The cricket game analogy is interesting. Up here in the Eden Valley Cricket League (Cumbria), just two games lost this season to the weather. Best for years.

Not a single adult game Saturday or Sunday played on astro, grass all the way. In fact as the groundsman a little more rain would have been helpful.

 

Anyway back to the weather models - wondering if developments in the Gulf Of Mexico will impact on us in 8-10days ?

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