Next 7-10 days are looking as boring and mediocre as it has been for the last month or so.

More likely unsettled with lot of clouds around I always believe that when it settled it sunny and warm or sunny or cold in winter but with clouds mean unsettled. Really hoping September to be a warm sunny days often.

 

More likely unsettled with lot of clouds around I always believe that when it settled it sunny and warm or sunny or cold in winter but with clouds mean unsettled. Really hoping September to be a warm sunny days often.

Well it's actually been predominantly settled but cloudy and quite cool last 10 days or so. Yes normally in Summer and September settled would mean warm and sunny but it's been more like the anticyclonic gloom you might get in November recently.

Wxsmmary for NW Europe remains cool and damp, with the UK on the edge faring a little better with temps near average and not much rain

GFS op: for this week much the same as before - HP over NW Scotland  offering fine weather for the W and cool/cloudy for the E before it collapses and a trough extending from Greenland to NW France is positioned over the UK Sun 5th. This resolves into a shallow low moving Se and the HP re-forming to cover all Uk by Sat 11th. Finally Lp from Greenland moves SE to S Norway Wed 15th with NW-lies for all. Bits of hurricane and ex-hurricane keep popping up in the Atlantic, well to the SW of the Uk and not having any obvious effect on our weather, being mostly steered NW-ward by the HP cells.

GEFS: A little above norm for the S  and esp warm in Scotland until Sun 5th with good agreement (for the S this may well mean cool days but mild nights). After that the mean declines to seasonal norm, supported by op & control runs, though there are a couple of outrageiously warm outliers. Small amounts of rain after 5th in most runs, though again a couple in the S have extreme spikes.

ECM : similar though the weekend LP is deeper (990 mb off SWIreland Mon 6th) and slower to move away (only just clear to the SE by Thu 9th)

Some drizzly rain falling here, but not heavy enough to show up on the rain radar.

HP in the wrong place is the issue. Warm uppers are meaningless with the feed down and off the North Sea as we have seen in many parts recently. August's pattern of blocking, weak and displaced jet have led to a tedious month and a change would at least be interesting. It may be another week or so though

 No change to temps in summaries but week 2 looking a lot wetter for all UK

Jet: up near Iceland to Sat 4th. Various streaks and loops then appear near UK with one such loop enfolding UK Sat 11th and a full on blast from the W on Wed 15th

GFS: HP currently over Scotland weakening and moving  SE by Sat 4th; GFS has adopted yesterday's ECM model and places shallow LP centred over Cornwall Mon 6th; then weak  LPs moving across UK from the W for the rest of that week eventually 995mb N Ireland Sun 12th; an ex-hurricane augments Atlantic circulation and gets to SW Ireland 970mb Tue 14th slowly filling as it moves NE across U:

GEFS ; temps above seasonal norm this week (You'd never guess it in the S, must be those mild nights!) - mean temp around norm from Mon 6th with variations but a lot more rain from that date throughout than previously shown, esp in the S. 

ECM: suggests that after Mon 6th pressure will remain fairly high over UK with something of a W-ly flow for that week; the LP forecast on GFS for the 12th looks on ECM as if it may develop from the one shown end of run (i.e.10th) 965mb S of Iceland

 

Well it's actually been predominantly settled but cloudy and quite cool last 10 days or so. Yes normally in Summer and September settled would mean warm and sunny but it's been more like the anticyclonic gloom you might get in November recently.

To me it very unsettled and never settled since the actual full sunshine in June without a cloud or fully settled for 24 hours complete day as today there some unexpected light showers which mean very unsettled with slack LP over us while the models and forecasts was very wrong on the surface conditions that why this summer i only rely on the window watching as the last source of accurate outcome. 

Models showing big HP really wrong and it very unsettled on the actual surface, period. 

WX summary - a bit warmer for eek 1 but temps back to square one for week 2, and with rain.

Jet much as yesterday

GFS: current HP declining and moving away, more to the E than to the SE as was predicted yesterday, and with the following LP staying off more to the SW until Wed 8th, there are a few days of warm S-lies from Sun 5th. The Lp resolves into a shallow trough over the UK by Sat 11th (there's a hurricane on the Atlantic not far away, no direct effect shown but ex-hurricanes are unpredictable) until LP near Iceland takes over Thu 16th with NW-lies for all

GEFS: warm to Mon 6th , after which agreement between runs breaks down and rain (less than yesterday in the S) begins. Best guesses on temp (which is all they appear to be) are for staying warm until the 9th (this more certain in the N) and near norm after that.

ECM: LP on Mon 6th fails to develop and leaves pressure quite high over UK for the week. Ex-hurricanes stay further off

There seems to be rain in the forecast for Sunday so not sure where this "long, extended dry spell" is coming from.

You couldn't make it up , back to school heatwave. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

There seems to be rain in the forecast for Sunday so not sure where this "long, extended dry spell" is coming from.

Depends whose forecast you look at. BBC - staying dry; MetO, not until Monday for London,;GFS in about half the runs from Monday onwards.

The model summary was quite difficult to compile this morning as there's a lot of uncertainty from the weekend onwards.

 

Depends whose forecast you look at. BBC - staying dry; MetO, not until Monday for London,;GFS in about half the runs from Monday onwards.

The model summary was quite difficult to compile this morning as there's a lot of uncertainty from the weekend onwards.

And all down to significant upper air differences around Kentucky were 'Ida' is presently which the models have all captured differently. 

Some of the models allow unsettled and potentially wet/thundery weather to invade the UK while others are much more amplified and allow the ridge to persist/hold on and build further. If the latter where to transpire very warm/hot conditions could develop. Still much to play for in detail from this weekend onwards.  

You couldn't make it up , back to school heatwave. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Early September is often warm and summery, when we grew spring sown barley it was usually decent weather for harvest and baling straw the next couple of weeks.

Anecdotally, that's my recollection of the first half of September. 

There seems to be rain in the forecast for Sunday so not sure where this "long, extended dry spell" is coming from.

Nope, looking very dry here. Temps also now progged to hit 25c+ Monday & Tuesday.

 

Let hope so as it been very cold 16C and 18C inside the house after many days of no sun the house latent warmth had died away so need the warm sunny spell to open all the windows to bring indoor temps rise back to normal 23-24C for this time of the year.  Good riddance to this cold cloudy HP with warmer LP to the West that give us some much needed warmth since July that last time went over 25C.  It will feel extremely warm feeling after weeks of 16-20C in August.

Like i said models had got it very wrong like i read in NW from Sheiky posted cloud charts clearing away every single day failed to happened.  Let hope this time they get it right for warm weather as to get mid 20's really need sunshine all day.