Ensembles along with tonight’s ECM paint a warm and dry picture for a week or so (basically into the reliable and beyond). Continental temps staying warm too so will aid any migrating airmass under slack south/ south easterlies.
Might have to take a couple of days off next week, get out and enjoy the dry and dusty mtb trails over the South Downs 😀

Anything posted in this daily report is for the time being subject to change at short notice as an active hurricane season plays havoc with the model outputs!

Wx summaries: quite warm week 1, some warmth esp in S persisting into week 2. Dry-ish week 1, in week 2 the British Isles are on the boundary of a very wet Atlantic and a fairly dry N Europe (the Atlantic rain looks to be pushing S of the Alps), Could go either way.

Jet; irregularly across N Atlantic to N of UK until Sun 12th when strong and persistent activity over England and N France

GFS: HP declining and moving SE-wards but hanging on despite shallow LP in Biscay which brings up warm air from time to time. That trough deepens Sat 11th linking first to Icelandic Lp and then on Mon 13th with ex-hurricane running S of the UK into Europe. 'Traditional' Atlantic LPs follow, 990 mb Rockall Wed 15th and 980mb SW Ireland Sat 18th

GEFS: warm or Very warm to about Fri 10th after which mean descends to close to norm with plenty of variation between runs. Moderate amounts of rain about from Mon 6th in Scotland, from Thu 9th in S England

ECM: similar to GFS but the Icelandic connection lasts a little longer and the ex-hurricane is kept waiting out to the W

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All very quiet in here. Short lived September hot spell next week with potential for 30C in places Tuesday.

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All very quiet in here. Short lived September hot spell next week with potential for 30C in places Tuesday.

Still going to be very warm next week and nailed on now and really thankful the former hurricane come to save us from this nasty cold cloudy HP out of the way with normal summer pattern that we did not see it a all in August returned.  Will open all the windows on Sunday onward to welcome the heat and warm up the house as hard as possible so to keep the heating off. I managed to avoid the heating in this unsettled cold cloudy spell.

If the hurricane did not come we would be stuck under this cloudy cold HP for weeks.

As I type the nasty clouds return again from the east so that another 48 hours with this.  As long the models show temps 20C and more every day as much as whole of Sept will be very welcome.

Summaries: make the most of week 1 (16/18 C in England, not far behind in Scotland) because in week 2 this is down to 12/14 Cand even a spot of blue (<0C) in N Norway. But looking generally dry, more so than yesterday.

Jet mostly well N of UK until Sun 12th, then a quick blast from the NW, less persistent than yesterday, dies away until Sat 18thwhen UK under HP cell neatly enclosed in a closed loop

GFS op: up to Sat 11th, HP settling over W Europe with trough to SW of UK bringing up warm air. Then HP rises over the Atlantic and small but deep LP over Norway appears at short notice with N-lies by Mon 13th . That HP then does a  repeat of last week, settling over N Scotland 1035mb by Fri 17th ushering another spell of E/NE winds for the rest of he Uk. Ex-hurricane (probably Larry) shaking up newfoundland around Sat 11th but no obvious effect on UK

GEFS : max warmth around Wed 8th, mean back to norm by Sat 11th, a lot of variation after that with op cold (8C below norm - this is the result reflected in the summary above) but control warm (a similar amount above). Mostly dry, a little rain after Fri 9th but one or two runs with big spikes. Similar in Scotland but temp variation not as extreme.

ECM : similar to GFS to Sat 11th, then the LP over Norway fails to develop (there are N-lies, but not as strong) and the hurricane makes progress eastwards towards Rockall Mon 13th instead of staying across the other side of the Atlantic with no rise of HP. UK at this time under nondescript slack pressure. 

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A very warm September developing on the GFS at the moment with high pressure nearby or just to the east of the UK, dragging up warm continental air. Of course, ex-tropical systems are a huge caveat at this time of year - they can very quickly plunge us into a cool and wet parttern, or a very warm and sunny one.

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A very warm September developing on the GFS at the moment with high pressure nearby or just to the east of the UK, dragging up warm continental air. Of course, ex-tropical systems are a huge caveat at this time of year - they can very quickly plunge us into a cool and wet parttern, or a very warm and sunny one.

Yep - Models are struggling as is often the case once we get exTS's in the mix

Briefly, this morning:

Summaries showing warm weather holding up better into week 2 but also wetter by then

GFS; Hp moving to S England Tue 7th with shallow LP to SW; that LP moving to cover UK as a trough Fri 10th; HP arises on atlantic and back over S England Mon 13th with warmth from the S being promoted by ex-hurricane on the Atlantic;  repeat with Hp being displaced by shallow trough again Sun 19th and new HP forming on Atlantic

GEFS; Warm/very warm to Thu 9th when mean temps back to norm with small amounts of rain from then on- suggestion of cool Mon 13th and warm Fri 17th (both of these a little earlier in Scotland) but lots of variation

ECM; similar to Fri 10th but trough never really clears away; instead of new HP on Atlantic new LP develops from hurricane 975mb off NW Ireland Tue 14th

 

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

If that verified that would give a September CET in excess of 16.0C

 

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After the cool cloudy crud of much of August I'd embrace that with open arms! It would go some way to making up for a pretty rubbish summer here (apart from the hot spell in July).

After the cool cloudy rubbish of much of August I'd embrace that with open arms! It would go some way to making up for a pretty rubbish summer here (apart from the hot spell in July).

It would just about sum up this God forsaken hellish summer if September finally brings warmth and dry the very day after the local cricket season finishes. I have had a gutful of this so called " summer" with day after day, and worse still, weekend after weekend washed out. 8 games out of an 18 game season completely washed out and playing the others in conditions only barely drier than a swimming pool, has been the worst summer of my lifetime from a cricketing perspective. Never has so much of my cricket been ruined. Even 2007 and 2012 were better.

Hell, I was even training in late April in snow, and on one occasion, not just a few flakes, but several inches of the stuff.

2021 can do one, frankly, and I daresay the winter will return us to the default Euro High giving us a bland, dull and mild winter.

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

Hoping it doesn’t burn itself out, as we’re going to Wales for a week on 18th.  Renting a holiday cottage with my sisters and their hubbies, so hoping for some barbecue weather. 

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

Hm. About as likely to come off as correctly predicting the winning lottery numbers.

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Only one P in the GFS ENS and definitely an outlier currently, but P8 output from tomorrow to 19th would make a July proud!

Local max temps 5th-19th: 25  25  24  25  27  26  24  25  27  26  26  27  28  23  23

This marvellous creation occurs as a result of repeated failure of LP to progress E' wards, leaving repeated plume-like pulses to bathe the BIs.

That what it used to be normal summer set-up with LP failing to move East and give us frequent hot spells and short lived unsettled spells but now no longer exist.  I used to view the models and always see LP stalling in the W and when it does move east it does move quickly and replace with new HP without fuss and gave us sunny spells to full sunshine regardless any wind direction.

Hoping it doesn’t burn itself out, as we’re going to Wales for a week on 18th.  Renting a holiday cottage with my sisters and their hubbies, so hoping for some barbecue weather. 

We will also be in Wales from the 18th - the St David’s peninsula. Where are you going Caz?

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We will also be in Wales from the 18th - the St David’s peninsula. Where are you going Caz?

Aahh!  You’re not far from us.  We’ll be just outside Newcastle Emlyn.  Let’s hope we get some decent weather!  

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Still a lot uncertainty in the track of Fat Larry. Could head to Greenland and pump up the high or track towards Scotland and herald the start of Autumn

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WX summary: this week's warmth (and a little rain - at the end of the week?) replaced by cooler air which sweeps in from the NW to cover central Europe, UK is on the edge of this and is dry for week 2 as bands of rain move S across the continent .

Jet - for the most part staying N of UK but with a tendency to plunge S-wards over the Baltic, occasionally fringing the UK (e.g.Mon 13th) New S-wards plunge W of Ireland Sat 18th ushers in a chaotic period with bits of jet everywhere from N Greenland to S Spain on Tue 21st, Just a weak fragment across S England.

GFS op - current HP declining SE-wards with trough moving from SW Thu 9th mostly affecting W Scotland but not lasting, new HP 1025mb N Ireland Mon 13th while ex-hurricane Larry spins itself out in mid-Atlantic. The HP moves across to Norway by Fri 17th with Atlantic trough nibbling at W edge but not making progress. HP regains strength and is positioned 1035mb Orkney Mon 20th while LP over Biscay brings E/SE winds for England.

GEFS - very warm for next few days, but back to seasonal norm Thu 9th after which agreement between runs increasingly breaks down; mean stays close to seasonal norm, op below and control above in S, all above norm in N. Almost no rain except for far NW.

ECM keeps the trough going after the weekend with no great  rise of pressure on Mon 13th while ex-hurricane Larry morphs into a major Atlantic depression 970mb Tue 14th about 500 miles W of Scotland but only making slow progress E-wards. Central Europe retains HP and is warm and dry unlike the GFS model which puts in a N-ly plunge

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