Thanks Dew for your regular posts. They are greatly appreciated even if nobody is responding. I think you are right to say that the outlook is very unclear and there is not much of great interest for the UK, at least from a model output viewpoint, at the moment.

My focus is on the north of Scotland as I'm doing a driving trip for 8 days, from this Saturday. A couple of days ago it was looking reasonably dry. Now there appears to be more rain in the forecast but with some decent dry interludes. I just hope that the cloud lifts so we get some nice views and can do some hill walking.

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Thanks again for all the time you take to update us. We're off by train from Auchterarder to Corsica, with a ferry trip as well, but will still look forward to your informative posts each morning. Don't want to spoil my routine fix to what is quite a confused outlook.
Simon

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I would like to echo those thank you's to DEW, his input is much appreciated by me too. I will be keeping a particularly close eye on things next month. We are taking our first holiday since Covid and have booked a house in Somerset for a few days. The thing is, though, that we're taking the car so we're travelling by ferry. I do wonder about the wisdom of a sea crossing in October. Hopefully, the High Pressure will still be there in October!

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Thanks Dew for your regular posts. They are greatly appreciated even if nobody is responding. 

 

 

Daily read for me, and I value DEW's summaries (as I've valued those previously done by other members at various times)

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Weather Output is looked at each morning. Saves looking at all the charts.

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Output a little more interesting on the GFS 6z perhaps. Looking like the final third of September could become very zonal and Atlantic driven and perhaps relatively cool, although it's only one run of course. I understand the SPV is due to be at record strength for the time of year so that should filter down to a zonal Atlantic driven spell.

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Have to agree with what everyone has said about DEW. Fantastic and informative read every morning. Thanks again for your updates

I am mostly a lurker and another going on a long awaited holiday! I have been reading DEW's excellent summaries which provide additional insight to the forecasts. I add my thanks to you for taking the trouble to do this, it is much appreciated.

I'll echo all the comments above as it's the first thread I tend to read each day. And of course Gavin's Thoughts.

Otherwise I'd never have a clue as to what's going on weather-wise.

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Same as everyone else, very grateful for DEW’s daily reports.  I don’t have the knowledge to add anything, or make sense of the models, so I really appreciate it!  

I too am going away on Saturday.  A week in a cottage in Wales with my three sisters and our husbands, making up for the Christmas we missed together!  Some fine weather would be welcomed by the golfers and this rain should swell the rivers nicely for the fishermen!  

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Thanks Dew, as always. Keep up the good work! 

Noticed this thread as been recently abnormally quiet until yesterday. I think it’s reflecting on rather uncertain and unexciting forecasts, but also the hotties have mostly gone but the coldies have yet to arrive.

DEW's reports are always appreciated. Always measured & unbiased. No ramping or cherrypicking that's for sure, unlike what often happens elsewhere in this thread, especially during the winter!

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It's very flattering to read the above comments, but i wasn't fishing for compliments, rather hoping that I'dprovoke some augmented remarksor disagreement with how I view things. That is allowed!

FWIW and while I'm making general remarks (1) at the end of this month we'll be away for a week and while the place we are staying has wifi. I may have to fit in with their schedules so time of posting could get irregular (2) when the clocks gp back, ECM 0z will be available by 0700 local time so earlier posting will be possible (3) if I disappear entirely for a while it's most likely because the ominous message about 'cooling fans malfunctioning' which appeared this morning means that I've had to get and set up a new computer. The fan appears to have recovered - maybe it just didn't shut down properly last night.

Let's go1

WX summaries continue to downgrade temps with all of N Europe cool/cold, and the bit of lingering warmth in the SW retreating further in that direction in week 2, more so than yesterday. The forecast isn't stable in week 2; week 1 general dampness is the same but week 2 is now wet for all the UK, yesterday evening the summary showed completely dry.

Jet: as yesterday, streaks and loops just off the W coast for ten days or so; then a much stronger and larger W-ly jet mainly across the UK from Mon 27th sometimes enclosing he UK in a loop 

GFS op: weak area of LP around the UK to friday when Atlantic trough works in from the W but the theme (previously noted) of a SW-NE ridge of HP appears on Tue 21st and persists until Sat 25th when it weakens to a zonal flow followed by a deep and cool LP  975mb Orkney Wed 29th deepening and moving into the N Sea Fri 1st while another LP lines up on he Atlantic

GEFS: fairly good agreement on temps close to seasonal norm though declining to about Wed 22nd; then a lot of variation either side of the norm with the summaries above taking their lead from the op (which is cool) but other runs suggest some optimism for late warmth. Small amounts of rain in the S & E but rather more in the N &W on and off from Sat 18th 

ECM; similar to GFs but rather than a zonal flow around the 25th a deeper trough approaches from the Atlantic with S-ly winds at least to start with.

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Same as everyone else, very grateful for DEW’s daily reports.  I don’t have the knowledge to add anything, or make sense of the models, so I really appreciate it!  

I too am going away on Saturday.  A week in a cottage in Wales with my three sisters and our husbands, making up for the Christmas we missed together!  Some fine weather would be welcomed by the golfers and this rain should swell the rivers nicely for the fishermen!  

 

To echo this, I always read his reports and they are much appreciated even if no comments are received. 

 

I am also going away, to Cornwall next week, desperately hoping that the high pressure edges in and takes control for much of the week. 

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WX summaries showing warmth retreating to the SW, more so than yesterday, while N Europe is distinctly cooler. Fairly dry in the SE but rain encroaching from the NW over the wo weeks.

jet - main action os on the Atlantic as yesterday, but this morning's charts show more fragments breaking off to affect the UK from time to time, nothing systematic; Sun 19th W Scotland from S, Tue 21st Cornwall from NW, Sat 25th Scotland from SW, Wed 29th Ireland from W

GFS - a rather messy picture of fairly high pressure but with troughs breaking in from time to time (notably Sat 18th) for the next week but a more definite HP Wed 22nd 1025mb SW England with strong SW-ly winds just about hanging on to Sat 25th when Atlantic W-lies take over. Some sub-552 dam appearing over the N at end of run, and in general does not match the summary charts well.

GEFS - Fair agreement between runs on temps close to seasonal norm to Mon 20th after which mean stays near norm but with more variation than previously and both op & Control as outrageously cold outliers in the S (control 12c below on 22nd) but the same two runs well above norm in the N. Rain now and intermittently from 20th again with a few ridiculously high peaks. I wouldn't trust much of this after a week from now

ECM - agrees with GFS though slower to develop the HP in a week's time

EDIT - A hat-trick of posts without reply. Is everyone else feeling baffled?

 

Nah.  The most consistently reliable and sensible posts in this thread thank you!

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WX summaries continue to show a seasonal cooling down, though NE Europe is definitely more on the cold side. They have the rain in week 1 while uk is mainly dry with rain moving down from the NW week 2

Jet pattern has altered somewhat later on- not much action to Fri 24th but then loop from Atlantic swings across UK and after that clears there is another on Fri 1st

Gfs - as yesterday, trough coming in this weekend and weakening as it comes up against generally HP; the SW-NE ridge previously referred to takes over for the first half of next week the Atlantic becomes active: LP 990mb N Sea Sat 25th and  985 mb NI Fri 1st, the latter sticking there

GEFS - general agreement on temps close to seasonal norm ( a little above in N) until Sat 25th but a lot of variation between runs after that (op and control are cold outliers for several days), Rain from time to time after 19th esp around 25th in S

ECM - after 22nd develops LP more strongly - a small forerunner in n Sea on Thu 23rd, and the main LP over Scotland 980 mb Sat 25th affecting most of UK, not just the E Coast

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Quite a strong signal now for a cooler more autumnal spell to set in from the middle of next week.

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Same as everyone else, very grateful for DEW’s daily reports.  I don’t have the knowledge to add anything, or make sense of the models, so I really appreciate it!  

 

Same here, Caz.

Many thanks for your daily updates on the model output David. They are greatly appreciated by me and please keep them coming!

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Wx summaries have a little warmth hanging on near the SW while N Europe is definitely cool. N Europe also getting the worst of any rain' the UK (except a wetter west coast) is less affected.

Jet predicted to be more active next week than was the case yesterday though both loops noted then are still to be seen but a bit earlier; strong flow just N of Scotland Tue 21st resolving into a loop enclosing the UK Fri 24th. This moves off E-wards but another Uk-encircling loop is here by Thu 30th

GFS op - weak trough over Uk now persisting to Monday (BBC says that remnants of old front embedded will revive on Sunday) then a period of zonal flow with HP trying unsuccessfully to move in from SW before LP appears Fri 24th 985mb Aberdeen moving off slowly SE-wards. Brief ridge of HP bringing down N-lies before next LP 1000mb in Bristol Channel Fri 1st moving slowly S-wards

GEFS - temps near norm to Thu 23rd, then most runs cool/cold to Tue 28th before uncertainly rising to near but below norm(op & control warmer than most). Not raining all the time, but more instances showing than yesterday and definitely wet for the W northwards from Wales.

ECM - matches GFS closely to Fri 24th but that LP then revives rather than moving away and deepens 970 mb Sun 26th just N of Aberdeen (special treat for Richard!).

Both models also show TD 96L as more of a feature SE of Newfoundland, quite intense on GFS Wed 29th, though not directly affecting UK weather.

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Thanks DEW, looks like the Central Heating will need to come on in about a weeks time

 

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