The models are having a problem over the next couple of days with a small but active LP in the west. BBC last night thought it might affect Cornwall but FAX this morning shows it running up the coast of Wales to W Scotland; at the same time a small Channel low is pushing showery troughs N-wards so the Midlands might get some significant rain too especially if the systems combine.
The summaries show avearge to warm temps in S, cooler in N; rain randomly occurring week 1, more in the W week 2, indeed the E coast (unlike yesterday) almost dry
Jet less active around the UK than shown yesterday, almost nothing affecting UK until Fri 17th when the leading edge of loops on the Atlantic give a S-ly flow just off the W coast on and off to FRi 24th when bits break off to go across the UK
GFS op: pressure fairly high across UK but with occasional shallow embedded troughs (sounds familiar?) until Thu 23rd when the LP on the Atlantic (which has been threatening) gets closer and brings up warm S-lies before a piece of it breaks off and runs across Cornwall Sat 25th. The main LP then retreats W-wards and by Mon 27th the controlling feature is a large HP 1035mb Norway with E-lies for the S, calm elsewhere.
GEFS: temps mostly close to (in the N) or a little above (in the S) seasonal norm for next two weeks, fairly good agreement between runs to Sun 19th after which no guarantees; mostly dry - some splashes of rain in the next few days, perhaps more at end of period in the E, more persistent but not heavy in the W.
ECM: similar to GFS to Thu 16th but then promotes LP on the Atlantic with first system then running N of Scotland with W-lies before a second LP establishes off SW Ireland with HP and warm SE-lies for UK. Quite a difference so keep watching!
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Chichester 12m asl