Summaries: make the most of week 1 (16/18 C in England, not far behind in Scotland) because in week 2 this is down to 12/14 Cand even a spot of blue (<0C) in N Norway. But looking generally dry, more so than yesterday.
Jet mostly well N of UK until Sun 12th, then a quick blast from the NW, less persistent than yesterday, dies away until Sat 18thwhen UK under HP cell neatly enclosed in a closed loop
GFS op: up to Sat 11th, HP settling over W Europe with trough to SW of UK bringing up warm air. Then HP rises over the Atlantic and small but deep LP over Norway appears at short notice with N-lies by Mon 13th . That HP then does a repeat of last week, settling over N Scotland 1035mb by Fri 17th ushering another spell of E/NE winds for the rest of he Uk. Ex-hurricane (probably Larry) shaking up newfoundland around Sat 11th but no obvious effect on UK
GEFS : max warmth around Wed 8th, mean back to norm by Sat 11th, a lot of variation after that with op cold (8C below norm - this is the result reflected in the summary above) but control warm (a similar amount above). Mostly dry, a little rain after Fri 9th but one or two runs with big spikes. Similar in Scotland but temp variation not as extreme.
ECM : similar to GFS to Sat 11th, then the LP over Norway fails to develop (there are N-lies, but not as strong) and the hurricane makes progress eastwards towards Rockall Mon 13th instead of staying across the other side of the Atlantic with no rise of HP. UK at this time under nondescript slack pressure.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl