Fairly solid agreement out to Nov 6th 

Last nights Gfs operational was an outlier to some degree, but we are catapulted back into Mild temps into week 2 of November.

wx summary not showing much change for week 1 temps - average across W Europe, above average further E; but week 2 shows a significant invasion of cold air from the NE to cover Russia while the Atlantic fringe from UK southwards gets a bit milder. PPTn over UK/France/Italy week 1 moving to N Atlantic week 2 leaving large dry area (new!) for all W  Europe (incl UK exc far NW) week 2 

Jet - loop dipping around the S of UK to Thu 4th, moving E and making way for a series of streaks across N Scotland to Sat 13th followed by loop rising N-wards and clear of UK

GFS op - current LP at deepest 975 mb Scotland Mon 1st  moving E-wards but still leaving trough down N Sea with N-pies to Fri 5th. Area of HP at first over S but expanding to cover all UK 1030mb Thu 11th moving to Baltic Tue 16th but still dominating UK . TS Wanda in mid-Atlantic Thu 4th but moving N and absorbed into general circulation.

GEFS - v good agreement on cool/cold to Fri 5th (say 5C below norm) with sudden return to norm followed by much uncertainty; mean near norm but op & control warm , the op remarkably so at 10C above norm from Thu 11th onwards (contrast another run at about 14C below!). Rain now, dry to Gri 5th then small amounts in some runs for rest of forecast

ECM - like GFS to Fri 5th but then after a false start fails to develop the HP and LP moves in instead  - 970 mb Rockall Mon 8th becoming 985 mb Bristol Channel Wed 10th with cold air from NE-ly source working its way down Irish Sea. TS Wanda is not completely absorbed but becomes a S-ward extending trough tacked on to the main circulation; no direct link to the LP on Mon 8th but may have boosted its development

Fri 5th is the day to watch - could go dramatically different directions from there

Happy Haloween all,

Great analysis there!! Typical Autumn fair on the cards for the moment then.

Liking the way cold air is sitting to the north east this year.....think a 1940 style winter could be on the way  ....about time Kent got a decent dumping...

Another very mild GFS run. Met office going for a cold November still. Making the CET comp guess very difficult. 

Op on the high side for sure 

I'm enjoying the latest drivel-fest from the ever reliable Daily Express: "Tornado warning as 87mph winds poised to hit UK." Er, really?  

Yes indeed! I'm in Northants and we had a very squally cold front go through about 10:30 am. Lots of trees down and road and rail disruption. The wind was very strong for 10 or 15 minutes. Rev Richard Coles at Finedon (about 2 miles from here) reckons his church was hit by a tornado. Whilst I cant rule that out, I was not very far away and we had very strong straight line winds. I think thats waht he experienced too. Intersting radar return at that time showed a very pronounced hook feature right over the top of us, almost aking to a miniature version of the scorpion tail  of a sting jet. Was very intersting to experience, but I am now launching the search party for my wheelie bins and the front portions of the neighbours fence.

(edit: trying to post image of the radar paint but I cant seem to do it..sorry)

https://imgur.com/gallery/yb81pR7

Tbf this one time they seem to have been on the money. Looks like a tornado in Northamptonshire.  80mph gusts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-59110091

See my post above!

I noticed that hooked feature which moved NE across central southern England just behind the main rain band. I did wonder what weather was underneath it…

Yes I think a mini Sting Jet probably more likely than a tornado.  The effect on the ground similar though.

"mini sting jet" 

Silly Season has started early. 

I must say the the UKV picked up the squall line quite well. 

Can't wait to use that and MOGREPS when/if we get a cold spell this Winter.

I happened to drive across country late afternoon from Cambridgeshire to Gloucestershire. Through Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire there were many fallen roadside trees and a lot of tree litter on the roads. Fortunately I had no delays but there were still some crews beside the roadside with chainsaws dealing with the aftermath.

A small low formed within the broad trough and deepened rapidly as it raced north-east from the English Channel near Dorset.

Suggestions are that during the rapid intensification, Sting Jet effects were felt hence the very strong winds close to the feature.

It is also likely that the damage was as a result of SLW's rather than tornadic

Wx summary - cold air making steady progress from NE - Finland and Baltic states close to )C by end of week 2 while UK still mild and France/Spain though mild still cold for the time of year. Wet weather in week 1 from UK down to Med, moving N and leaving W Europe very dry week 2

GFS - Current LP 975 mb Scotland moving N; a few days of N-ly winds before becoming W-lies with LP near Scotland and occasional troughs across the rest of the UK until Wed 10th when one LP deepens E Scotland 970 mb with a fresh dose of N-lies. Soon switching back to SW/S-ly winds with Hp growing from the SW to cover all UK 1030mb Tue 16th (but showing signs of moving on E-wards) Less indication of cold air to the NE than in WX

GEFS - cool/cold to Sun 7th after which little agreement; mean stays near seasonal norm, op for the S suggests warm/cold/warm for the 9th/11th/15th, even less coherent for Scotland. More rain than shown y'day for week beginning Tue 9th, continuing longer for the N, again at odds with WX

ECM - resembles GFS though like yesterday, last frames show LP closer to UK Thu 11th, but downgraded to a broad trough instead of y'day's Lp centred near the SW

Before you start rubbishing people...read the discussion. I have 45 years as a meteorologist and I chose my words carefully, having experienced tornadoes, derechos and microbursts as a convective specialist. I can tell you that under that hook feature there were mainly straight line winds, but I cant discount some small vortices on a very localised level. Several other meteorologists known to me have appeared on TV regarding this feature and say the same.

Thanks Steve. We certainly had a couple of surprising short storms come through yesterday with high, squally wind and violent rainfall. I've seldom seen anything like it. I'm not a meteorologist, so appreciate comments like yours to educate me and give me something to read up on!

Roger

The 0z Control run looks nice 

An early taste of winter. Shades of 2010 (although set-up a bit different)

Hope it's picking up on a trend, and not just going off on one of its regular LSD trips!!

I wasn't rubbishing the fact, that some type of sting jet incident could of of been responsible for the damage at all, but the fact that is was described as being "mini" nothing mini about a sting jet 🙂

LOL - must admit that prefacing weather terminology with "mini" usually requires restraint before I get abusive 

I was staying in a safari tent in Dorset over the weekend. That hooked feature passed just a few miles to the north early yesterday morning, but it was still properly stormy and windy - quite an experience 

We also went down to the coast at Kimmeridge yesterday. It was hard to stand up on the clifftop, and the streams going over the edge of the cliffs were being blown back up and onto the land. There were still plenty of nutters out on windsurfers and kitesurfers!