Well it's turning out to be a miserable day for me. First I log in to the interent to hear the sad news of the death of comedian Sean Lock, and now we are staring down the barrel of a washout weekend. Whatever next: they say bad news always comes in three.

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BBC presenter last night saying there are no signs of a heatwave that has been banded about in the Press.

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BBC presenter last night saying there are no signs of a heatwave that has been banded about in the Press.

  indeed they have been consistent with that message for a while now.  Maybe some warmth end of next week and a brief shot in the SE on Sat 

Summary temp patterns much as before with coolth from Atlantic maintaining presence over N Europe , if anything digging in deeper in week 2. Rainfall switching about a little, more over England week 1 then a dry week for UK as rain moves into Europe

Jet incoherent but not active near UK

Gfs op - shallow low trundling across S England Sun 22nd after which rise of pressure over Ireland, centre drifting N to Iceland Fri 27th with slack NE-ly flow for all. New HP covering UK Mon 30th (could the Express be right?) and staying around though LP in SW approaches by Fri 3rd

GEFS mean temps remarkably close to norm throughout, but with some differences between runs increasing as time goes on. Quite dry throughout, a little rain around the 22nd, one or two anomalously large totals for Scotland later

ECM similar to GfS though end -of-run Sun 29th looks less promising to build HP for the 30th as above

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Thanks for your summary DEW. It's always good to see it even when posting is minimal during times when the weather/models do not offer a lot to talk about.
A dry spell now looks more or less nailed on for most during next week then, once the LP has moved on. Cloud amounts will make a massive difference in what will not be an overly warm air mass so looks like West will be best during the last full week of summer.

Going to Great Yarmouth for 4 days from the 24th August,  desperately hoping for high pressure to take control. It looks ok at the moment . Maybe a risk of low cloud in the slight easterly wind which seems likely. Wait and see job.

 

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Outlook looking decent for next week just not especially warm but then doesn't bother me too much. Would be nice to get a short spell of hot weather before the Summer is out though.

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WX Summaries - more of the same temperature-wise. Germany and Poland also joining the UK ifor cool weather, but getting some rain while the UK is dry for week 2 (and not bad in week 1). Hot in Spain and unusually warm E of the Urals.

Jet a bit more organised than recently - small streak across S England this weekend, strong one across N Scotland Thu 2nd otherwise not much action in our vicinity.

GFS op - after shallow LP across the S Sun 22nd, steady rise in pressure to cover all Uk 1030mb Wed 25th and staying around though slowly retreating W-wards over the following week; from Thu 2nd UK weather dominated by NW then N winds generated by 995mb LP over Baltic, By Sun 5th this weakens and the HP looks set to return

GEFS - mean of temp runs staying close to norm for the next couple of weeks, subject to the usual scatter setting in after week 1. A little rain this weekend (BBC suggesting more falling locally as heavy showers) then very dry esp in the S, perhaps a little rain later on in the N.

ECM - as GFS to wed 25th, then the centre of the HP moves N rather than W. Thu 2nd is outside ECM time frame, but it looks as if the LP will not develop so strongly over the Baltic and the UK may be more affected by LP from the S

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Continued ENS downgrades as we get closer to the time. It seems that the very warm outliers disappear as the runs approach T+0 which brings the mean down. GEFS just hovering above average (more so up in Scotland) before dropping to near normal. GFS Ops run shows autumnal weather dangerously close to our shores later in the run. The Ens looks better but if you run the average 850HPa day to day, those greens are steadily sinking south and getting closer.

Will late August be our last 'warm' settled spell of the summer, or will the models switch and offer us a late taste of summer in early September as is often the case?

Watch this space!

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The Met Office have issued several severe weather warnings for the coming weekend . In my experience, they tend to over egg these warnings, which will probably just turn out to be a few hours light-moderate rain in most locales. Somebody high up there has clearly decided it's safer to go a bit OTT with the warnings then be accused of not warning people sufficiently of flooding and/or lightning risks. 

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Summary outlook pattern much the same as yesterday except if anything even cooler and drier in week 2. An anomaly, surely? If it's going to b dry and by implication fine, the sun is still powerful enough to lift daytime temps, so it could still be very pleasant in the middle of the day though no heat wave.

Jet - occasional streaks near the UK but nothing of note except on a couple of days from the N on Thu/Fri 2/3rd.

GFS op - current shallow LP across the S replaced by anticyclone Wed 25th 1030mb covering all UK. A tendency for it to move N with E-lies for the S until Tue 31st when the HP moves off to the W and in combination with LP over Scandinavia gives some quite strong N-lies until the HP re-establishes itself 1025 mb Mon 6th, again covering all the country.

GEFs - mean temps staying close to seasonal norm in S, a couple of degrees above in N, good agreement for the first week but increasing variation thereafter (at about Thu 2nd op and control in opposite  directions ca 8C above and below, probably depends on whether we get the edge of that N-ly or a full-on blast, small differences in position of HP & LP will make a big difference to temps)

ECM - consistent with its own forecast yesterday and differs from GFS as the HP quite definitely moves N/NE (1025 mb Scandi Sat 28th) before shifting to the W but with enough HP staying over Scandi to prevent N-lies and instead another of those shallow lows moving across England fro the W Tue 31st

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So much for a washout day. Forecast was for rain almost all day. I’m fa try we had a few spots this morning, not even enough to wet the ground, and then a warm day with some sunny spells this afternoon.

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So much for a washout day. Forecast was for rain almost all day. I’m fa try we had a few spots this morning, not even enough to wet the ground, and then a warm day with some sunny spells this afternoon.

For here relative to the forecast the rain was very late starting but then it was very heavy for an hour or so.

GEFS says relatively dry next week though temps uninspiring - which suits me.

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Same here in Fulham a better day all round despite the Met Office predictions of constant heavy rain for much of the day

So much for a washout day. Forecast was for rain almost all day. I’m fa try we had a few spots this morning, not even enough to wet the ground, and then a warm day with some sunny spells this afternoon.

It was a complete washout here (again) and is still pouring now. This August has been pretty dreadful, wrapping up the worst summer I've experienced since 2012.

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So much for a washout day. Forecast was for rain almost all day. I’m fa try we had a few spots this morning, not even enough to wet the ground, and then a warm day with some sunny spells this afternoon.

Indeed. Was a decent day for many. Proves the old adage that some TWO members favour hyperbole and hysteria over sensible forecasting. 

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It was a complete washout here (again) and is still pouring now. This August has been pretty dreadful, wrapping up the worst summer I've experienced since 2012.

Witney is wetter than the Amazon rainforest - and not nearly as warm. It must have the worst climate on Earth. 

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Witney is wetter than the Amazon rainforest - and not nearly as warm. It must have the worst climate on Earth. 

🤣🤣🤣 It certainly feels that way. It has been an absolutelegend horrendous summer here. 7 cricket matches (out of 16 so far) washed out this year. That is the worst ever in my 30 years playing cricket. Virtually half the season washed out. Incredible. Worst by miles.

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Well we had nearly 6mm bringing the month up to 28mm, still well under half normal, desperate times.

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WX summary - rather more warmth working up from the SW as the centre of the cold pool moves to E Europe. Staying mainly dry though some rain in the SE at first and the NW later.

Jet - stays away for the next 2 weeks; the jet on Thu 2nd previously forecast has now become just a glancing blow only for the N

GFS op - HP moving up from the SW to cover the UK by Wed 25th and staying around to Mon 30th when it slips away to the NE; then a nondescript but generally zone of high pressure before new HP cells come in from the SW Fri 3rd and again Tue 7th. yesterday's strong N-ly on Thu 2nd has turned into a light NW-ly.

GEFS - temps close to norm or a little above in Scotland with good agreement to Thu 2nd, after which mean stays near norm but much uncertainty with op & control again showing as outliers in opposite directions. Very dry everywhere.

ECM similar to GFS though LP over the continent a little closer at the end of this week and more of an E/NE-ly for the SE

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