Not just rain, snow in the area this morning and forecast again tonight, roll on the warm up 🤞

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With reference to the comparisons made by some between this April and the same month in 2007 and 2012, for me while this April has certainly been dry, that is where the similarities end.

April 2007 was one of the driest and warmest Aprils I can remember experiencing here, and I don't think there were a great many frosts that month as I don't recall the nights being especially cold. Contrast that with the frequent frosts many areas have seen this month. April 2012 was an unsettled month for the most part, coming as it did after one of the warmest March's on record. In fact, the weather of April 2012 largely set the tone for what was to come during the summer and autumn of that year; i.e very wet.

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With reference to the comparisons made by some between this April and the same month in 2007 and 2012, for me while this April has certainly been dry, that is where the similarities end.

April 2007 was one of the driest and warmest Aprils I can remember experiencing here, and I don't think there were a great many frosts that month as I don't recall the nights being especially cold. Contrast that with the frequent frosts many areas have seen this month. April 2012 was an unsettled month for the most part, coming as it did after one of the warmest March's on record. In fact, the weather of April 2012 largely set the tone for what was to come during the summer and autumn of that year; i.e very wet.

I've said this before. Those two years are not comparable to the current April.

As for the output, I can see three Low Pressures lining up to affect the south (at least) in the next 10 days. A lot of rain possible, especially compared to recently.

 

Jetstream currently looping to the S clicks into gear and runs strongly across the UK from Mon 3rd until another loop forms Tue 11th and takes the main flow off to the S. That son results in the same sort of pattern we've seen through April with two streams, one to the N and the other to the S of the UK.

GFS shows a few days of light winds and cool source of air before the Atlantic winds up - LPs 990mb Tue 4th N Sea, 985mb Fri 7th Irish Sea, 1000mb Wed 12th off Brittany slowly moving to the Channel but at least bringing some warm air for all parts with it.

GEFS - cool now, back to norm Fri 7th though staying cooler in Scotland & NE England, uncertainty thereafter with majority of runs near norm keeping temp prediction down but quite a number of warmer ones as well. As for rain, showers at first, more persistent and often heavy for the week starting Tue 4th, slowly petering out after that but forecast totals have increased since yesterday.

ECM  - picks up the LPs on same timescale as GFS but intensifies them further W & S - Tue 4th 990mb N Ireland, Sat 8th 990mb off Brittany

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Had this been a transition to cold weather in December the GEFS35 would be getting a lot of praise for picking it up so early. The unsettled first half of May has been signalled for several weeks.

Talking of the 35 dayer, there are encouraging signs of something a bit warmer and dryer in the 2nd half of May ....

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

 

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It seems as hard to get rain here as it does snow at the moment. Each day it is predicted it is gone the next. April will be zero rainfall. 26mm since February 16th - ten weeks. Maximum daily rainfall in that period 6.4mm. 

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I've said this before. Those two years are not comparable to the current April.

As for the output, I can see three Low Pressures lining up to affect the south (at least) in the next 10 days. A lot of rain possible, especially compared to recently.

 

 

Indeed. The pattern-matching eccentrics aren't even matching the patterns! Anyone who thinks April 2007 was like April 2021 needs their memory looking at. 

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Our wildlife, indigenous wildlife that is, will be quite able to cope with what is being thrown at it. It's just a cold April, nothing more. They have evolved to deal with conditions like this and far worse besides. Numbers of individual species may go up and down but that's just the normal course of things.

 

..I am an Environmenat scientist and this is my work ..

 

Never mind.

 

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GFS 6z ENS , still a mixed bag and plenty of ppn around 

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Winter is over but the pattern of that hot plume coming up Italy into southern Germany robbed us of a classic winter IMO.

The relevance of those events is that I can see pattern repeats happening this summer and will be the theme this coming summer, maybe onle SE will see the effects of this and the UK will see temperature extremes similar to last summer.

 

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..I am an Environmenat scientist and this is my work ..

 

Never mind.

 

There is nothing in this April's weather that suggests anything catastrophic will happen to indigenous UK wildlife. It's been cold & frosty certainly but nothing unprecedented and certainly nothing wildlife won't be able to cope with.

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Our wildlife, indigenous wildlife that is, will be quite able to cope with what is being thrown at it. It's just a cold April, nothing more. They have evolved to deal with conditions like this and far worse besides. Numbers of individual species may go up and down but that's just the normal course of things.

Oh, our wildlife can deal with normality.

What it can't deal with is normality plus:

A climate changed beyond normality.

A lack of insect due to insecticides and modern farming.

A lack of weed species (that supports lots of wildlife) that get extinguished by weedkillers.

A lack of habitats due to our demands for land.

The list goes on...

 

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There is nothing in this April's weather that suggests anything catastrophic will happen to indigenous UK wildlife. It's been cold & frosty certainly but nothing unprecedented and certainly nothing wildlife won't be able to cope with.

Ok, you know better than someone who knows better than you

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Ok, you know better than someone who knows better than you

Well prove me wrong then with reports in a few months time that April 2021 was 'devasatating' for wildlife.

 

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 Well prove me wrong then with reports in a few months time that April 2021 was 'devasatating' for wildlife.

 

That would be a sensible plan.

Birds like stonechats, wheatears, pippets and warblers nest in gorse. There is no doubt recent gorse fires will have destroyed such nests. Likewise grass fires will damage the nests of ground nesting birds. Ground nesting birds used to be much more common - but drainage and now the early mowing of grass mean there are far fewer than there were.

We have swallows and house martins. Less that last year though...We used to have 7 or 8 pairs of swallows, this year (we might yet see more) 4 pairs.

Anyway, this is OT, but if we don't get rain soon (and we might, though probably not enough) more damage will be done to our wildlife.

Will May see the necessary 50-75mm of rain to reverse the dry spell? I doubt it, but i can't see far into the future either.

 

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Looks like a box set holiday Monday then. Would not like to see next week's synoptics setting up towards the end of June. Thankfully early May is not typically a time for pattern locking.

 

That would be a sensible plan.

Birds like stonechats, wheatears, pippets and warblers nest in gorse. There is no doubt recent gorse fires will have destroyed such nests. Likewise grass fires will damage the nests of ground nesting birds. Ground nesting birds used to be much more common - but drainage and now the early mowing of grass mean there are far fewer than there were.

We have swallows and house martins. Less that last year though...We used to have 7 or 8 pairs of swallows, this year (we might yet see more) 4 pairs.

Anyway, this is OT, but if we don't get rain soon (and we might, though probably not enough) more damage will be done to our wildlife.

Will May see the necessary 50-75mm of rain to reverse the dry spell? I doubt it, but i can't see far into the future either.

 

If the latest GFS is anywhere near the mark we might see 50-75mm and then some. What a contrast to April! 

 

Well prove me wrong then with reports in a few months time that April 2021 was 'devasatating' for wildlife.

 

It’s been cold, it’s been dry, but not record breaking and most importantly has followed an ‘average’ winter (and March) for temps and rainfall.  One odd month weatherwise does not deliver a knockout blow to species so ‘devastating’ seems improbable.  However due to all the other problems our flora and fauna are facing, then it could be argued that dramatic weather contrasts could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back....

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We cant seem to snap out of this cold pattern at the moment.  Looks like after the cold and dry April we now have the cold and wet start to May.  The heat is getting closer though maybe by mid May we can properly tap into it.

 

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If the latest GFS is anywhere near the mark we might see 50-75mm and then some. What a contrast to April! 

More likely where you are I'd say, but I had my neck of the woods in mind, in part, as I typed.

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