A bit late this morning but better late than never ...
Probably the most interesting charts this morning are on FAX, showing the track of tomorrow's depression across Scotland with trailing fronts for S England; then a further LP develops on the trail-back to run up the Channel on Thursday 6th with a miserably wet day for for S England, supported by Arpege at T+82 (In January this would have been the snowstorm of the century, but no use crying over spilt milk) A further deep Lp is waiting off to the SW on Friday.
The 16-dayer continues to show well below average temps into week 2, even down into N Spain at that time, while the bubble of warmth has been re-instated in C Europe where it was a few days' forecast back. Rain plentiful across the UK week 1 and on into the Baltic; in week 2 reserved for France and S England.
GFS shows as FAX but in less detail; the LP in the SW moves to S Scotland 985mb Sun 9th; then shallow but extensive LP appears in Biscay Thu 13th with E-lies over England but HP 1035mb over Shetland ppulling some mild weather from the Atlantic there. As this LP fills, HP declines over the N to leave W-lies there and just a hint of continental warmth for the S at the very end, Wed 19th.
GEFS for the S - agreed on temps back to norm, Sat 8th & peaks of rain 4th, 6/7th and 9th and still some big totals from some runs thereafter, temps not agreed after the 8th but generally a small amount below norm. Scottish temps don't get back to norm until about Thu 13th then possibly a little above average. Rainfall similar except misses out on the 7th.
ECM - leaves out the Channel low on the 6th, and LP on the 13th is much further S near Corsica, while rather more LPs line up in the Atlantic
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl