There are different kinds of drought, we won't run out of drinking water but crops and grass are already in a parlous state due to searing frosts and below average to negligible rainfall since February in many places

With that in mind, it is just as well that last winter was wetter than average overall as it has turned out because I would hate to have imagined what the state of our crops and grass would have been like had that not been the case.

We have had some fairly dry winters in recent times after all, most notably between 2016 and 2019 in this part of the world.

 

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They should have listened to you, Mooms, and they'd have enjoyed a glorious summer. They brought this on themselves.

 

 

🤣🤣🤣 This was the year that I really did accurately predict (or guess)....David Porter will concur with that as he was one of the few who was backing me when my forecast was spot on for 2012.

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Yes, the rains will come and when they do we will be wishing they hadnt!

I remember last May, the grass was brown and I had to get the sprinkler out, then it started pissing it down in June

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Yes, the rains will come and when they do we will be wishing they hadnt!

I remember last May, the grass was brown and I had to get the sprinkler out, then it started pissing it down in June

Exactly, which is why I am a bit concerned about our prospects for the coming summer.

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I'm wondering if it's worth planting potatoes into dust.

And the models don't seem to indicate any rain any time soon...

 

I did my friend.   There is no sign of life at all.  They should be up and speeding ahead by now.  The climate in this country is far too unpredictable in a negative way.

The Romans called this island the land of meat eaters.  I can understand why.  Too difficult to grow anything but pasture (and even that is not growing at the moment) and slugs and snails ate everything else. 

 

No wonder the survivors reacted by painting themselves blue.....

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Exactly, which is why I am a bit concerned about our prospects for the coming summer.

Last pretty decent.. and the grass was so dead in May because April was dry and sunny..

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/2020-april-stats

Dejavu 

Grass is the most resolute plant on the planet and will always bounce back. Crops can be watered with irrigation using the copious ground water.

Local borehole at Chilgrove in the Downs just about on average - not quite 'copious' but better than a  really dry year e.g. 2017

https://www2.bgs.ac.uk/groundwater/datainfo/levels/sites/ChilgroveHouse.html

 

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Grass is the most resolute plant on the planet and will always bounce back. Crops can be watered with irrigation using the copious ground water.

 

It's no good bouncing back once main growing season is over because hay and silage will be greatly reduced as happened last year. 
Then you have the 'minor' problem of inadequate grass growth for grazing which is already apparent as there has been almost none yet in many areas further north at least.

Crops can't be 'watered with copious groundwater' because boreholes and expensive pumping systems don't just magickally appear in areas where irrigation is not normally needed - so might only be used one year in ten and you have to apply for licences to abstract only a certain amount.

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Jetstream as yesterday continuing its fragmented appearance N & S of the UK, as before for the week beginning Mon 26th odd fragments break off the northern stream to run down across the UK. However the later increase in intensity of the southern stream  close to S of UK Sun 2nd doesn't last, and unlike yesterday the following loop is removed entirely to the N of UK and even at one stage a countercurrent E'ly flow across Scotland Thu 6th.

16-dayer continues the steady warm-up but chance of rain receding S-wards.

GFS consistent in maintaining HP over UK to Tue 27th before that recedes to NW allowing NE-ly flow across UK. LP over Scanid which is driving this flow is over Denmark Sat 1st deeper and closer than previously - but not lasting, new HP over UK 1030mb Wed 5th May with S-ly warmth for W of UK, more E-lies for the SE. Centre of HP moves to Norway but pressure remains high over UK (?hint of shower activity from the S Sun 9th - but that's a long way off)

GEFS temps dip Tue 27th and recover to norm around Mon 3rd after which mean near norm but a bigger spread of outcomes than previously (choose from from 12C above norm to 10C below in S on Sat 8th!). Small amounts of rain after Tue 27th best chances around Wed 5th, also later in N (does GEFS take any notice of the GFS op above? Suggestions of a lot of uncertainty in various ways)

ECM is like GFS but LP on 1st is shallower but closer to E England

 

 

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Awful Ops from the big 4 this morning with a cold northerly again setting up. But the GEFS offer some hope of warmth as we start May.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Got to say that although I enjoy hot summers I'm finding things very interesting at the moment. I'm wondering if the weather is going to throw a curveball and deliver something very different to what we've seen in recent years. 

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Got to say that although I enjoy hot summers I'm finding things very interesting at the moment. I'm wondering if the weather is going to throw a curveball and deliver something very different to what we've seen in recent years. 

It is interesting, but as I said recently, any shift to warm synoptics seems to lead to relatively easy pressure on existing heat records.

Ensemble watch is fascinating at the moment and I do wonder how long the dry theme will last. There have been hints of southerly tracking LP's so I am looking to see if we get an early European monsoon as May progresses 

Got to say that although I enjoy hot summers I'm finding things very interesting at the moment. I'm wondering if the weather is going to throw a curveball and deliver something very different to what we've seen in recent years. 

    could you elaborate further on your curveball comment what your thoughts are on our forthcoming summer?

It's no good bouncing back once main growing season is over because hay and silage will be greatly reduced as happened last year. 
Then you have the 'minor' problem of inadequate grass growth for grazing which is already apparent as there has been almost none yet in many areas further north at least.

Crops can't be 'watered with copious groundwater' because boreholes and expensive pumping systems don't just magickally appear in areas where irrigation is not normally needed - so might only be used one year in ten and you have to apply for licences to abstract only a certain amount.

You have a main growing season for grass? 

I mean down here if it rains the grass will grow unless of course the field becomes waterlogged. That said it's totally normal and expected for the grass to die off during the summer down here - if come mid July & August the grass is green then the summer has been poor.

Got to say that although I enjoy hot summers I'm finding things very interesting at the moment. I'm wondering if the weather is going to throw a curveball and deliver something very different to what we've seen in recent years. 

We are definitely due a cold one. But is it even possible in these GW times . Already the heat over north Africa and southern Europe looks intense.

Just look at the heat to our south way above average. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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We are definitely due a cold one. But is it even possible in these GW times . Already the heat over north Africa and southern Europe looks intense.

Just look at the heat to our south way above average. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

I noticed that heat too. No guarantee it's going to come our way though. A bit like deep Siberian cold in winter. I'm concerned that similar years to this have ended up with poor summers. Dry Aprils also make me nervous. I'm gearing up for a poor summer and will be pleasantly surprised with anything different. Not very scientific I know 

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I noticed that heat too. No guarantee it's going to come our way though. A bit like deep Siberian cold in winter. I'm concerned that similar years to this have ended up with poor summers. Dry Aprils also make me nervous. I'm gearing up for a poor summer and will be pleasantly surprised with anything different. Not very scientific I know 

Yes definitely no guarantees of a good summer but it does mean that any southerly will once again be super charged with heat as has been the case for the last 3 years.

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I noticed that heat too. No guarantee it's going to come our way though. A bit like deep Siberian cold in winter. I'm concerned that similar years to this have ended up with poor summers. Dry Aprils also make me nervous. I'm gearing up for a poor summer and will be pleasantly surprised with anything different. Not very scientific I know 

General point taken. That said, April 2003 has virtually no rain here (and I think over most of the UK) until nearly the end of the month. May wasn't so good, but the summer itself didn't turn out too badly.

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You have a main growing season for grass? 

I mean down here if it rains the grass will grow unless of course the field becomes waterlogged. That said it's totally normal and expected for the grass to die off during the summer down here - if come mid July & August the grass is green then the summer has been poor.

It only grows enough through May/June/july to exceed grazing requirements so fields can be shut off to cut.
That requires at least six to eight weeks to get a usable bulk.
Here feeding season is at least six months in a good year, so the next three months or so need to produce a very large volume of bulky fodder.

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Biting cold dry wind again this morning. Looks like we will end up with a solid month of Northern blocking and East, S.E winds. Of course had Europe been cold last winter and these conditions had arrived at the start of February it would have been a memorable spell in the South East.

As always, right pattern, wrong time of year. I await the Autumn monsoon as soon as the plants stop growing. Same as last year, massive drought from April then continuous rain for 5 months.

 

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