16-dayer - Europe still cocooned in below average temps from Spain to the Urals and currently esp cold in Norway; actual temp improving slowly but still looks to be below norm through week 2. More rain now being shown: week 1 in two areas, a band (again) from Spain to Urals plus a blob around southern Britain, week Currently N2 more of a large blob for France, southern Britain and up to the Baltic.
GFS - Current trough from Scandi to N Sea stays around and intensifies N Sea Tue 4th;then Atlantic influence with series of shallow LPs moving across UK up towards Baltic and finally sticking over UK from Wed 12th, all contriving to keep the UK in a generally N-ly flow. By Fri 14th warm both E and W of UK but static cold at home.
GEFS - 6 or 7C below norm for coming weekend , most runs slowly rise to just below norm by end of run Fri 14th but there is a small cluster of very warm outliers for England around Mon 10th. A slightly drier (showery?) spell around Mon 3rd (very little rain i the N at this time) otherwise frequent spells of rain at various times in different runs (several with very large totals for Scotland).
ECM - similar to GFS though LPs from the 4th are better defined and deeper; Tue 4th 990mb N Sea, Fri 7th 980 mb Scotland, Sat 8th developing in SW approaches
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl