16-dayer - Europe still cocooned in below average temps from Spain to the Urals and currently esp cold in Norway (and if that's familiar, it's what I wrote two days ago) - but week 2 shows that E Europe from Romania p to Poland is going to get some decent warmth while temps on the W fringes only creep up slowly. Rainfall pattern also the same for week 1, a band from N Spain to Urals and a blob around the UK; week 2 the former band is still there while the latter has resolved into a band from SW Ireland to Norway.

GFS - a lull with cool/cold air and showers until a couple of LPs arrive; Tue 4th 985mb NE England deepening with N-lies; Mon 10th standing off W Ireland with S-lies; then a general W-ly pattern.

GEFS - temps still cool to Sun 9th then mean near norm concealing a lot of variation (asymmetric - most runs a bit below norm but several (v) warm outliers esp in S). Showers to Mon 3rd then quite frequent rain throughout but tailing off towards Sun 16th, with some runs esp in S showing more prominent big totals than yesterday's forecast. 

ECM - as GFS until LP on Mon 10th is deeper and moves steadily across UK cutting off any S-lies and replacing them with back-edge N-lies - again!

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Looks like another dry day here. Would love to know the stats for this region I cant remember any significant rain here all month. Must be a record 

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Looks like a box set holiday Monday then. Would not like to see next week's synoptics setting up towards the end of June. Thankfully early May is not typically a time for pattern locking.

Agreed. Although weather patterns can chop and change during the summer months, the general trend is often set by the weather in early June. I'm not too worried about a couple of weeks of cool, wet crud right now. In fact, some rain will be welcome, but if things don't improve towards the end of the month then I'll be fretting. 

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The rain will actually be appreciated here at my parched-looking neck of the woods, although it doesn't look amounting to much but what IS it with the strongest southerly wind occurring in the middle of the night here at Kent? Happens every time.

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Looks like another dry day here. Would love to know the stats for this region I cant remember any significant rain here all month. Must be a record 

Interesting. Here in north Hampshire it was a miserable cold wet day on Wednesday (April 28th). Driving home around 4 pm the car thermometer was reading between 5.5C and 6C. It was more like January than late April.

 

Oh, our wildlife can deal with normality.

What it can't deal with is normality plus:

A climate changed beyond normality.

A lack of insect due to insecticides and modern farming.

A lack of weed species (that supports lots of wildlife) that get extinguished by weedkillers.

A lack of habitats due to our demands for land.

The list goes on...

 

 

Ah!  Thank you .    You understand what I am saying.

 

In the case of field crickets.  We no longer have the thousands we had decades ago.  We have 250-300 in an average year.

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“Copious Rainfall” Update.

Yet another day here with no measureable precipitation. Ground bone dry and cracking up.

A few mm progged in the week ahead before a slow warm up towards the regional average as we approach mid-May.

Hardly the biblical rains that some were ramping.

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Interesting. Here in north Hampshire it was a miserable cold wet day on Wednesday (April 28th). Driving home around 4 pm the car thermometer was reading between 5.5C and 6C. It was more like January than late April.

Yes we've managed to avoid all the rain of recent days. The ground is remarkably dry now. First week of May looks wet though.

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Oh, our wildlife can deal with normality.

What it can't deal with is normality plus:

A climate changed beyond normality.

A lack of insect due to insecticides and modern farming.

A lack of weed species (that supports lots of wildlife) that get extinguished by weedkillers.

A lack of habitats due to our demands for land.

The list goes on...

 

 

 

Spot on.

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Interesting. Here in north Hampshire it was a miserable cold wet day on Wednesday (April 28th). Driving home around 4 pm the car thermometer was reading between 5.5C and 6C. It was more like January than late April.

Exactly what happened here

 

Interesting. Here in north Hampshire it was a miserable cold wet day on Wednesday (April 28th). Driving home around 4 pm the car thermometer was reading between 5.5C and 6C. It was more like January than late April.

 

Rained all day here on Wednesday, but some of our local ditches still bone dry.  
I think the rain must have gone in all the cracks in the ground

 

Hoping this thread would help my May CET prediction, but I ended up thinking a guess might be better method of deciding.

 

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12z GFS op shows some hope into FI. 

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Amazing if after this cold period we quickly get one of the 20C blowtorch runs which have started occasionally appearing. After recent years I wouldn't rule it out.

 

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Amazing if after this cold period we quickly get one of the 20C blowtorch runs which have started occasionally appearing. After recent years I wouldn't rule it out.

 

I’ve been a tad bemused, but not surprised, by the recent commentary about the entire season ahead, in here. Lots of baseless claims. 

Yes we have a cold and unsettled period coming up but we should have learned by now that things can change very very quickly. 

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16 dayer showing more optimism than yesterday (but it's still 'jam tomorrow' i.e. week 2) with the bubble of warm air noted then over C Europe moved to France and Germany - but still only just touching the S Coast. Meanwhile plenty of rain for week 1 blowing across the Uk and on into the continent, and still hanging around the W coasts of Spain up to N Ireland in week 2.

GFS: LP  deepening as it moves from W coast to be Tue 4th 985mb N Sea and then on to Baltic; shallow trough to follow on Atlantic deepens Sun 9th 980mb Wales but once that's moved off NE-wards a strong plume of warmth arrives from Thu 13th with HP derived from Azores HP - fully in possession Mon 17th 1035mb centred England but covering all UK

GEFS: Cold at first esp in N (Snow rows for Inverness in next few days around 30) but temps rise sharply to norm about Sat 8th, after which much uncertainty (Scotland has to wait until Wed 12th before warming); op & control go for another cool spell around Tue 11th and then a warm one around Sat 15th while mean stays near norm. A lot of rain Mon 3rd - Wed 12th, most runs drying up after that (Scotland  & N England drier from a few days earlier).

ECM: Similar to GFS but less optimistic about indications plume (but the plume itself would be a day or so beyond the end of its run)

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We may even reach average temperatures by the middle of the month here: 

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That’s three GFS ops on the trot now that have built high pressure with drier and warmer conditions into late FI.

Hoping it’s a trend. 

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That’s three GFS ops on the trot now that have built high pressure with drier and warmer conditions into late FI.

Hoping it’s a trend. 

Hopefully!  But we could do with some rain first because it’s  really dry here with irrigation sprays already in local fields. 

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Tonight's 18Z looking very November-esque with several deep autumnal lows crossing the country, before dragging down cool shots behind them. It would undoubtably bring some drought relief, but not the weather many of us want to be seeing in late spring...

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One step forward, two steps back! The prospective warmth over the near continent for week 2 noted yesterday in the 16-dayer has disappeared in favour of something colder from the north and lots of rain esp week 1 for the UK. Jetstream pattern backs this up, directly across the southern UK for the coming week, then a loop developing which enfolds the UK from the N in the following week.

GFS - LP N Eng Tue 4th 985mb, trough extending back ito the Atlantic until Sun 9th when that winds itself up 985 mb Brittany; brief appearance of ridge from Azores high Wed 12th but subsiding into W-lies unlike yesrerdays' forecast of warmth from the S

GEFS - cool now, briefly back to norm Sat 8th (special offer for the S only!), then cool again to Fri 14th, finally somewhere near norm with none of the warm outliers seen recently. Wet until Wed 12th, generally in S with some big totals, more concentrated around 4th and 9th as above in N, somewhat drier after that. 

ECM - similar but places LP on the 9th close to Ireland

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