The GFS Op continues to show some very cold days in the second week, with several maxima <10C. Not as extreme as the 0z which offered a 5C max over us on one day! I've no doubt that would run for a record for May max in the S.

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Possibly one of the most extreme weather events in western Europe if it happened. Would surely have to go down as an all time classic.

 

 

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GFS has dropped the idea of the plume will the ECM hold steady.  Big two very very different at the moment. 

 

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Possibly one of the most extreme weather events in western Europe if it happened. Would surely have to go down as an all time classic.

 

 

Midwest style temperature contrasts. 
but I’m bored of this. I want warm. Warm and wet would do. Just warm. 

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UK weather: The coldest spring for 50 years with average temperature of just 6C | The Independent | The Independent

Spring 2013 was the coldest for 50 years.   Do you think this spring will give it a run for its money on current forecasts?

Yes, without a shadow of doubt. Coldest spring I can remember.

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March 2013 was really really severe though . Would have been well below average even if it were January and indeed there has been no colder month of any name since (Feb 2018 being very close). I remember seeing snow clinging to the trees during the final week of the month.
April and May that year were also largely devoid of any proper or long lasting warmth.
This year we've had a fairly normal March then a freezing April. We will need a very cold May to get anywhere close to 2013 .

 

 GFS doesn't want to relent just yet with the cool theme. But high pressure looks like dominating again after a week or so. 

 

 

 

 

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 GFS doesn't want to relent just yet with the cool theme. But high pressure looks like dominating again after a week or so. 

 

 

 

 

Will 2021 be the new "year without a summer?"

 

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We're reaching the stage where it won't take much to start importing heat (or at least warmth) from Scandinavia.

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We're reaching the stage where it won't take much to start importing heat (or at least warmth) from Scandinavia.

Yes, always a sign we've reached late Spring / early Summer when that happens. 

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Certainly a lot of promise in the GFS op this morning in the latter reaches.

High pressure and sunshine will feel very nice at this time of the year regardless of the airmass. 

If it happens of course! Although it has appeared in a fair few ops now. 

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16 dayer shows some warmth developing in Europe S of the Alps but N Europe remans cool, even cold over UK and Norway. Rain in week 1 in a band from N Spain to S Finland incl Uk breaks up into patches in week 2 - Portugal, Alps, Baltic states, and of course England/S Scotland.

Jetstream quite string and waving over England/France until Sun 9th, then a loop develops with strong flow from S close to E England  to Wed12th, followed by a confused period in which it mostly avoids the UK, finally Thu 20th becoming two streams as it was for much of April, weak to the N of UK and stronger through the Med.

GFS - today's LP moving away NE wards, succeeded by 985mb Ireland Sun 9th, also moves off to NE. Then Hp appears on Atlantic and from Fri 14th  through to Tue 18th forms an arc in general from SW Ireland to Faeroes to N Norway, importing warm air N wards but leaving England under E-lies controlled by LP over France. 

FAX still showing a channel-running LP on Thu 6th but nearer France than yesterday, agreed by Arpege which keeps the rain offshore in the Channel 

GEFS - for the S, cool/cold now, burst of warmth with rain Sun 9th, then cool again for several days but recovering irregularly to norm. Less rain in forecast than yesterday but not entirely dry. Similar for Scotland but wetter and cooler. Doesn't match the synoptics above.

ECM - shows that LP over Ireland but is slower to move it out of the way; also no trace of HP in Atlantic but LP 995 mb Fri 14th off SW Ireland.

This morning, if you pick the right run of the right model, you can have any weather you want!

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Will 2021 be the new "year without a summer?"

 

 It is early May so i dont know why that would be.

Will 2021 be the new "year without a summer?"

 

 

No.

 

Writing off summer on 4 May. Maybe a record?

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Will 2021 be the new "year without a summer?"

 

Don't think so, at least not in the SE & in September!

Though, don't think June, July & August will be great overall.

Will see.

You can pretty much guarantee there will be some close to record breaking high temps down here in the S.E. at some point this summer. There is every year now!

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Will the extended blocks of weather continue? Since last April here we have gone six months dry and warm and sunny, 5 months of incessant rain and now into third month of dry, cold and breezy. We no longer get traditional changeable weather, just long spells of different contrasting types.

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Certainly a lot of promise in the GFS op this morning in the latter reaches.

High pressure and sunshine will feel very nice at this time of the year regardless of the airmass. 

If it happens of course! Although it has appeared in a fair few ops now. 

No surprise but the 06z has reverted to unsettled throughout. 

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No.

 

Writing off summer on 4 May. Maybe a record?

Yes, yes that's right, I am writing off summer 2021 to some extent.

Not completely of course not, but you get a feel for a general pattern setting up, and that is one of regular and quite intense northern blocking and southerly jet stream. That does not for a good summer bode well. 

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Yes, yes that's right, I am writing off summer 2021 to some extent.

Not completely of course not, but you get a feel for a general pattern setting up, and that is one of regular and quite intense northern blocking and southerly jet stream. That does not for a good summer bode well. 

Members will remember you doing similarly last year. 

Absolutely ridiculous in May. Bonkers. 

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