ECM looks pretty solid on a warm up. Should finally lose the frost risk. Will it last though. 

ECM looks pretty solid on a warm up. Should finally lose the frost risk. Will it last though. 

 

 

 

Frost risk will finally diminish, but continues to look exceptionally unsettled. Absolutely no sign of any decent weather until mid May at the very earliest.

Still waiting for the unsettled weather to start here. Still no rain , think theres a chance of the Azores building in over us in the 10 to 15 day period. No certainties though.

8mm so far here in this 'wet spell' - it's had zero effect on growing crops. There should be some rain on Tuesday, then it looks like we wont see more than 'might rain' for the rest of the week.

The dry spell is far from done with us, and wont be done with us unless we get 50-75mm of rain this month - which still looks highly unlikely to me.

This is about as extreme as its possible to get in May.

Persistant heavy snowfall and temps barely above freezing!

This is about as extreme as its possible to get in May.

Persistant heavy snowfall and temps barely above freezing!

Where? On the Scottish mountain or the Scilly isles?

It's seven days away. So, a pressure pattern like that might happen is the best we can say.

 

Where? On the Scottish mountain or the Scilly isles?

It's seven days away. So, a pressure pattern like that might happen is the best we can say.

Northern Edge of the warm front. So as it stands that dumps a load of snow over NW England. I know nothing can be taken literally a week out but as it stands that is an extreme record breaking chart.

 

Northern Edge of the warm front. So as it stands that dumps a load of snow over NW England. I know nothing can be taken literally a week out but as it stands that is an extreme record breaking chart.

Nah, these things always prog south :)

Thursday does look like an extraordinarily cold day for early May . Probably wet and -4/5 850s. Low level snow definitely possible even likely. 

GFS 6z builds in the Azores big time. It's very different run to the ECM though. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Still waiting for the unsettled weather to start here. Still no rain , think theres a chance of the Azores building in over us in the 10 to 15 day period. No certainties though.

 

Indeed, the “copious rainfall” we were promised has thus far amounted to about 1mm. We might squeeze 4mm tomorrow I guess?

We may even reach average temperatures by the middle of the month here: 

  Who would have ever imagined that that was something to be highly hopeful about....

Indeed. Although if it ends up that the best spell(s) of weather coincide with late spring and summer I won’t complain (especially given the restrictions on overseas travel). Hopefully the upward temperature trend in the medium to longer term will become a stronger one in coming days.

7 day temp trend for Europe. Signs of a warm up over the far NE and particular over the central continental belt. Pretty much as we are in the NW.

 

Nah, these things always prog south :)

Wednesday and Thursday have looked potentially wintry for many northern parts on the output for several days now. Please can we have some warmth after that.

Surely this sickening cold must die out eventually as now the sun is late July position and North Pole now 24 hours daylight so the extreme cold there will should die out and return to average so in turn UK get back to warmer side.  Already lost 7 weeks of useable long daylight hours and now only half way to longest day before it drawing in again.  

12z has indeed sent it south and even showing fairly heavy snow in Central Southern England on Thursday now.

LOL. Not going to happen. A cold and unpleasant day quite possibly? Moderate snowfall across Central Southern England? Er, no. 

A bit late this morning but better late than never ...

Probably the most interesting charts this morning are on FAX, showing the track of tomorrow's depression across Scotland with trailing fronts for S England; then a further LP develops on the trail-back to run up the Channel on Thursday 6th with a miserably wet day for for S England, supported by Arpege at T+82 (In January this would have been the snowstorm of the century, but no use crying over spilt milk) A further deep Lp is waiting off to the SW on Friday.

The 16-dayer continues to show well below average temps into week 2, even down into N Spain at that time, while the bubble of warmth has been re-instated in C Europe where it was a few days' forecast back. Rain plentiful across the UK week 1 and on into the Baltic; in week 2 reserved for France and S England.

GFS shows as FAX but in less detail; the LP in the SW moves to S Scotland 985mb Sun 9th; then shallow but extensive LP appears in Biscay Thu 13th with E-lies over England but HP 1035mb over Shetland ppulling some mild weather from the Atlantic there. As this LP fills, HP declines over the N to leave W-lies there and just a hint of continental warmth for the S at the very end, Wed 19th.

GEFS for the S - agreed on temps back to norm, Sat 8th & peaks of rain 4th, 6/7th and 9th and still some big totals from some runs thereafter, temps not agreed after the 8th but generally a small amount below norm. Scottish temps don't get back to norm until about Thu 13th then possibly a little above average. Rainfall similar except misses out on the 7th.

ECM - leaves out the Channel low on the 6th, and LP on the 13th is much further S near Corsica, while rather more LPs line up in the Atlantic

UK weather: The coldest spring for 50 years with average temperature of just 6C | The Independent | The Independent

Spring 2013 was the coldest for 50 years.   Do you think this spring will give it a run for its money on current forecasts?