16-dayer - Gradual is the name of the warm-up but signs of some definite warmth over France in week2 just about creeping into S England. Still plenty of below average temps around the Baltic states and Finland so beware any easterlies if they develop! Remaining dry for both weeks; the patch of rain in the Channel noted previously for week 2 is now placed over mid-France.
GFS - current HP in place until Tue 27th when it re-positions over Greenland (1065mb?!) allowing in NE-lies for a couple of days. Then LP SW of Iceland moves to W Ireland Sat 1st (no surprise - it's BH weekend), eventually intensifying over Scotland 965mb Fri 7th, with troughs generally over the UK in that week (poor match to the above in respect of rainfall)
GEFS - temps near norm to Tue 27th then most runs dip over the following two days to around 6C below norm. A steady improvement to norm by Mon 3rd , even above in Scotland. Rain starts appearing from 27th, small amounts at first, a few runs with big totals in the S, more continuous but less extreme in N and Scotland.
ECM - similar but with some tweaks to start with - E-lies rather than NE-lies after Tue 27th. Later on a bigger difference with LP Sat 1st moving S to Biscay, and a suggestion that any LP over Scotland will derive from a new LP moving across from Iceland
Edited by user
21 April 2021 07:03:35
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl