If lows start to set up and anchor SW of UK can easily see a hot plume occurring soon probably mainly central Europe but clipping SE England especially,  that micro climate getting into gear.Dust is a real problem here now in Essex especially from all those tipper trucks. Bet NW have another atrocious summer.

Jetstream continuing its fragmented appearance N & S of the UK, though for the week beginning Mon 26th odd fragments break off the northern stream to dun down across the UK. More organised action from Sun 2nd with the southern stream developing a broad flow close to S of UK and after a brief hiatus, it resolves into a loop Thu 6th with a flow from the S directly across England.

16-dayer like yesterday except more rain in the Channel week 2

GFS - HP over the UK now moving off slowly to NW which with LP over Iberia Sun 25th transferring to Baltic by Thu 29th*  brings E-lies swinging round to N-lies. The HP finally collapses around Sun 2nd with weak trough of LP west of UK  and S-lies ; but in turn that trough draws in air from NW Atlantic and the mix generates a deep depression 985mb Fri 7th N Ireland

GEFS temps near norm at first; a drop on Tue 27th but not as cold or long-lasting as previously - back to near norm Mon 3rd. A little rain from 27th, more significant amounts from Sat 1st but not the extreme downpours for the S shown yesterday

ECM collapses the HP as early as Wed 28th and presents slack LP over the Atlantic thereafter, until a more definite depression mid Atlantic Sun 2nd

*(BBC last night said that a minority model put this LP in the N Sea with N-ly gales)

Monsoon season setting up again for the south. Warm wet and humid. Probably wont help with Covid as dry air helps suppress it

Monsoon season setting up again for the south. Warm wet and humid. Probably wont help with Covid as dry air helps suppress it

Not much sign of any warmth on GFS. Almost May and the dark blues are still hanging around

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021042200/gfs-1-174.png?0

Latest GFS run is horrifically dry. I hate it when it doesn't rain for ages.

This weather early in Spring is a gardener's nightmare. Everything bursting with growth but too cold and too try to sustain and frosts to kill off stuff still in the mix, even in the south. Not good.

 

This weather early in Spring is a gardener's nightmare. Everything bursting with growth but too cold and too try to sustain and frosts to kill off stuff still in the mix, even in the south. Not good.

Plants seem to be slow coming on this spring due to dryness and severity of frosts. Having said that wishing for rain in UK is dangerous as you never k ow when it will stop !! 😁

 

Plants seem to be slow coming on this spring due to dryness and severity of frosts. Having said that wishing for rain in UK is dangerous as you never k ow when it will stop !! 😁

I remember in April 2012, everyone was really wishing for rain because of the dry spring.

I remember warning people to be careful what they wished for.

What followed was the most abysmal summer I can ever recall. Even worse than 2007.

This weather in this country will always balance out. We will never be in true drought, because ground water levels are always adequate and it invariably pours and pours once a pattern change sets in.

I never wish for rain in this country. The reason? Because it ALWAYS bites us back and always tops up.

I remember in April 2012, everyone was really wishing for rain because of the dry spring.

I remember warning people to be careful what they wished for.

What followed was the most abysmal summer I can ever recall. Even worse than 2007.

This weather in this country will always balance out. We will never be in true drought, because ground water levels are always adequate and it invariably pours and pours once a pattern change sets in.

Its the end of April and Mooms is back !

I can set the calendar based on this type of post. Dry Spring, Wet Summer blah blah blah. Change the record its boring now. 

April last year.   I want to cry.  No point having an allotment in years like this.

I never wish for rain in this country. The reason? Because it ALWAYS bites us back and always tops up.

I remember in April 2012, everyone was really wishing for rain because of the dry spring.

I remember warning people to be careful what they wished for.

What followed was the most abysmal summer I can ever recall. Even worse than 2007.

This weather in this country will always balance out. We will never be in true drought, because ground water levels are always adequate and it invariably pours and pours once a pattern change sets in.

Too young to remember 1976 then?

April last year.   I want to cry.  No point having an allotment in years like this.

I'm wondering if it's worth planting potatoes into dust.

And the models don't seem to indicate any rain any time soon...

I never wish for rain in this country. The reason? Because it ALWAYS bites us back and always tops up.

I remember in April 2012, everyone was really wishing for rain because of the dry spring.

I remember warning people to be careful what they wished for.

What followed was the most abysmal summer I can ever recall. Even worse than 2007.

This weather in this country will always balance out. We will never be in true drought, because ground water levels are always adequate and it invariably pours and pours once a pattern change sets in.

They should have listened to you, Mooms, and they'd have enjoyed a glorious summer. They brought this on themselves.

I never wish for rain in this country. The reason? Because it ALWAYS bites us back and always tops up.

I remember in April 2012, everyone was really wishing for rain because of the dry spring.

I remember warning people to be careful what they wished for.

What followed was the most abysmal summer I can ever recall. Even worse than 2007.

This weather in this country will always balance out. We will never be in true drought, because ground water levels are always adequate and it invariably pours and pours once a pattern change sets in.

 

 

They should have listened to you, Mooms, and they'd have enjoyed a glorious summer. They brought this on themselves.

 

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London

Joking aside, it does look set dry for the foreseeable. We'll be alright for a bit but another couple of weeks of this and we will be in a drought situation.

There are different kinds of drought, we won't run out of drinking water but crops and grass are already in a parlous state due to searing frosts and below average to negligible rainfall since February in many places

True drought is places like California where it can go months and months without rain and combine that with poor ground water levels. I think the closest we came to drought was Summer 2018 and that soon recovered. Be careful what you wish for; quite frankly I'll take this dry spell for now (though I wish it was a little later on towards Summer).

GFS12z reinstates the Stuka low.

 

Its the end of April and Mooms is back !

I can set the calendar based on this type of post. Dry Spring, Wet Summer blah blah blah. Change the record its boring now. 

I just don't think this country will ever have a real problem with water. We are not the Sahara.

 

Too young to remember 1976 then?

There are different kinds of drought, we won't run out of drinking water but crops and grass are already in a parlous state due to searing frosts and below average to negligible rainfall since February in many places