16-dayer showing a general warm-up in week 2 after a week 1 in which all W Europe distinctly below average temp. Dry-ish to start with more rain later esp in N.

GFS - current Hp giving way to blast from the N Mon 5th, only really severe on E coast, and (unlike yesterday) out of the way by Thu 8th with small HP in S Britain and mostly S-lies for a while (a glancing blow of cold on Sun 11th) eventually LPs moving across from Atlantic in traditional routes past N Scotland Wed 14th and Fri 16th before mild SW-ly for all Mon 19th.

GEFS - very cold briefly Tue 6th, back to norm Sat 10th, suggestions of mild or v mild conditions around Thu 15th in S while Scotland stays below average but too much variation between runs to be certain. Small amounts of rain in S from Sun 11th onwards, rather more at this time in the N.

ECM brings the LP on Sun 11th in from the Atlantic so not as cold, and immediately goes on to show mild SW-lies.

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If this were winter then yes, I would say dry and sunny for the south. HOWEVER..the calendar has moved on and we are in April. The mechanics for convection from a sunshine that is now packing a UV4 punch are different now and will feed off the land from a solar induced warmed boundary layer from noon, clearing rapidly at dusk. (unless of course a cheeky disturbance or polar low akin to April 1950,1983 or 2006 gets involved overnight).

Provided dewpoints aren't too low (in which case it could be a virga fest) I would be half expecting some temporary accumulations from the heavier showers. If a snow shower falls late enough in the day we could even scrape a morning of 9am snowcover on Tues and Weds.

Interesting !

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If this were winter then yes, I would say dry and sunny for the south. HOWEVER..the calendar has moved on and we are in April. The mechanics for convection from a sunshine that is now packing a UV4 punch are different now and will feed off the land from a solar induced warmed boundary layer from noon, clearing rapidly at dusk. (unless of course a cheeky disturbance or polar low akin to April 1950 or April 1983 gets involved overnight).

Provided dewpoints aren't too low (in which case it could be a virga fest) I would be half expecting some temporary accumulations from the heavier showers. If a snow shower falls late enough in the day we could even scrape a morning of 9am snowcover on Tues and Weds.

Interesting !

I think you could be in line for some nice convective showers Steve, further inland/central or more sheltered areas probably less so.

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 I think you could be in line for some nice convective showers Steve, further inland/central or more sheltered areas probably less so.

Aberdeen could do fairly well from overnight accumulations Doc with a convective window that runs from late Sunday evening all the way through to the early hours of Wednesday morning. The air is looking very dry (as is typical with Spring northerlies) so you best hope the those pesky Grampians don't suck too much moisture out of them before the reach you. 

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Aberdeen could do fairly well from overnight accumulations Doc with a convective window that runs from late Sunday evening all the way through to the early hours of Wednesday morning. The air is looking very dry (as is typical with Spring northerlies) so you best hope the those pesky Grampians don't suck too much moisture out of them before the reach you. 

With a northerly or even NNWly it won’t actually pass over the Grampians and the setup is one that normally delivers to this neck of the woods. I’m not fussed at this time of the year and would prefer a bit of warmth, but as that doesn’t change what will happen I might as well enjoy it! 
I am sure this chart prediction will be spot on as usual 

 

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Aberdeen could do fairly well from overnight accumulations Doc with a convective window that runs from late Sunday evening all the way through to the early hours of Wednesday morning. The air is looking very dry (as is typical with Spring northerlies) so you best hope the those pesky Grampians don't suck too much moisture out of them before the reach you. 

The models have done very well with this Nly, and not so well with the Friday one which seems to be disappearing.

Wrt my highlight, what I don't get is why the Met O are forecasting a lot of cloud for us, in sheltered S Devon, on Monday and Tuesday and even for places like Southampton.

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Seems we are going back to square 1.

More intense initial cold spell. Less chance of continuation.

 

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If this were winter then yes, I would say dry and sunny for the south. HOWEVER..the calendar has moved on and we are in April. The mechanics for convection from a sunshine that is now packing a UV4 punch are different now and will feed off the land from a solar induced warmed boundary layer from noon, clearing rapidly at dusk. (unless of course a cheeky disturbance or polar low akin to April 1950,1983 or 2006 gets involved overnight).

Provided dewpoints aren't too low (in which case it could be a virga fest) I would be half expecting some temporary accumulations from the heavier showers. If a snow shower falls late enough in the day we could even scrape a morning of 9am snowcover on Tues and Weds.

Interesting !

   indeed in 2006  such a feature dropped around 4 inches of snow around the High Weald area around Tunbridge Wells and of course 2 years later   4 inches settled on the south coast.  I can remember 1975 too lots of convective snow showers with sharp drop in temperature near the showers .abd there have been other occasions  more frequently in the past 

Drought is the thing to look out for in the S.E. With the mild October to February monsoon season over we are now entering our dry season here in Essex. Very little rainfall since the end of February and little showing for the rest of the month. A cold dry wind and low DP's has made surfaces very dry.

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Jetstream - a more or less consistent southern branch through the Med, sometimes fed from the Atlantic, sometimes from the northerly branch which continues with an irregular series of loops. These affect the UK from the N/NW from tomorrow 5th until the end of the week when more W-ly; for the week beginning Sun 11th the loop encloses the UK from the N, narrowly at first and more broadly later.

GFS - strong N-ly as previous forecast for Mon 5th though greatest effect on E coast; LP developing in the flow Thu 8th near Iceland and running across to Norway for a reload but weaker (BBC has its track further S, across Scotland); HP tries to move in from the S Tue 13th but another LP appears off NE Scotland and runs S to E Anglia Thu 15th keeping the N-ly flow going; finally Tue 20th an Atlantic trough brings in something warmer. N-ly theme more persistent than yesterday or indeed as suggested in the 16-dayer.

GEFS - big dip Mon/Tue 5th/6th recovering to near norm Thu 8th; a cooler period for a few days before the majority of runs revert to a large spread around the norm through to Tue 20th. Only a little rain and that mostly later on. (after Thu 15th). Snow row figures only significant for Scotland and E coast of England in next few days, with amounts of pptn low except forfar N.

ECM - this week's N-ly present but if anything further E. From Sun 11th HP from the Atlantic ( day or two earlier than shown on GFS) promises milder weather, more sustained than GFS with any LP centres small and staying N of Scotland.

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Drought is the thing to look out for in the S.E. With the mild October to February monsoon season over we are now entering our dry season here in Essex. Very little rainfall since the end of February and little showing for the rest of the month. A cold dry wind and low DP's has made surfaces very dry.

Does seem to have been a repeating pattern in several recent years. October-Jan monsoon, very dry early to mid spring, rain returning in summer. Soils in my fields have gone from field capacity to really quite dry in a month. 

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Upcoming cold spell now downgraded to a two day blink-and-you-will-miss it affair. [According to the Weather predicter on my pc].

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No, there’s been no downgrade and in fact the consistency has been notable (as discussed in the other thread).

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Drought is the thing to look out for in the S.E. With the mild October to February monsoon season over we are now entering our dry season here in Essex. Very little rainfall since the end of February and little showing for the rest of the month. A cold dry wind and low DP's has made surfaces very dry.

Its funny you should say that. As a child I was pretty sure that most months of the year were pretty even with a slight peak in October and November and a slight lull in March and April.

These days its very marked. A distinct dry and a distinct wetter season.

The autumn/early winter peak is now very notable.

 

https://en.climate-data.org/europe/united-kingdom/england/folkestone-8417/

 

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Its funny you should say that. As a child I was pretty sure that most months of the year were pretty even with a slight peak in October and November and a slight lull in March and April.

These days its very marked. A distinct dry and a distinct wetter season.

The autumn/early winter peak is now very notable.

 

https://en.climate-data.org/europe/united-kingdom/england/folkestone-8417/

 

The local winterbourne had a strong flow at end of Janary into February, but that is now noticeable dropping off - definitely earlier than in years from a decade ago

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It has been quite dry up here in recent weeks too and that is reflected in soil moisture levels http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4 

(Although the equivalent temperature charts are more eye catching http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4)

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Yes Doc when I see a straight northerly I know that snow will fall and settle across the Northern half of Scotland and the North York Moors. These areas are likely to have disruptive snow. Central areas including Edinburgh and most English cities will be lucky to see a few flakes or a brief burst of soft hail. Southern areas likely to be sunny and dry.

We will see naff all , hardly ever do unless the front coming down is active enough . But the wind will make it feel cold and we should get a frost or two out of it , as per this morning 

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From this

To this in 24 hr is impressive:

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The local winterbourne had a strong flow at end of Janary into February, but that is now noticeable dropping off - definitely earlier than in years from a decade ago

 A lot of winterbournes suffer from groundwater extraction more than they did 40 years ago. The water authorities will have none of it though.

A bit late this morning but here goes:

16-dayer ~ rather cold week 1, warn mong up week 2 but not a lot, still some menacing very cold stuff to the NE. Dry, UK sandwisheced between two blocks of rain, one near Shetland, one over the Alps and Italy

GFS - current N-ly blast as forecast, new LP arising nr Iceland Fri 9th and moving to N Sea to keep N-lies going; HP then takes up station off W Ireland to Sat 17th so N-ly still present but weaker; then W/NW pattern with LPs tracking across Scotand through to Wed 21st

GEFS - current dip in temps as expected but back close to norm Fri 9th before a long period with temps 5-6 C below norm slowly recovering to norm Wed 21st. Not much rain in S & E, perhaps a bit more in W and towards end of run generally. Snow row figures consistently high for Inverness, occasional days here and there in the N also high.

ECM - similar to GFS but  weaker HP off Ireland so manages to squeeze in an extra trough crossing the UK Wed 14th

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