Jetstream as yesterday continuing its fragmented appearance N & S of the UK, as before for the week beginning Mon 26th odd fragments break off the northern stream to run down across the UK. However the later increase in intensity of the southern stream close to S of UK Sun 2nd doesn't last, and unlike yesterday the following loop is removed entirely to the N of UK and even at one stage a countercurrent E'ly flow across Scotland Thu 6th.
16-dayer continues the steady warm-up but chance of rain receding S-wards.
GFS consistent in maintaining HP over UK to Tue 27th before that recedes to NW allowing NE-ly flow across UK. LP over Scanid which is driving this flow is over Denmark Sat 1st deeper and closer than previously - but not lasting, new HP over UK 1030mb Wed 5th May with S-ly warmth for W of UK, more E-lies for the SE. Centre of HP moves to Norway but pressure remains high over UK (?hint of shower activity from the S Sun 9th - but that's a long way off)
GEFS temps dip Tue 27th and recover to norm around Mon 3rd after which mean near norm but a bigger spread of outcomes than previously (choose from from 12C above norm to 10C below in S on Sat 8th!). Small amounts of rain after Tue 27th best chances around Wed 5th, also later in N (does GEFS take any notice of the GFS op above? Suggestions of a lot of uncertainty in various ways)
ECM is like GFS but LP on 1st is shallower but closer to E England
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl